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Example of generating confidence picks

 2018, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on Example of generating confidence picks
Sep 192018

A reader who purchased the book WinThatPool requested that I post an example from beginning to end of generating confidence picks. This post will do that for Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season.

This post assumes you have access to the book, so you already know how to calculated Win Probabilities, as described in Chapter 2.

1. Obtain betting lines. For the purpose of this post, I will use betting line information that was available from VegasInsider Wednesday morning September 19, 2018.


Source: Vegas Insider, downloaded 9/18/2018, 5:00a PDT

If you visit Vegas Insider, you will see that the site actually uses symbols of fractions of 1/2, so those symbols have been translated here as .5. Also any “Pick’em” (PK) spreads are treated as spreads of zero. Missing spreads are ignored.

2. Translate betting lines into win probabilities, and average them, per Chapter 2. I ignore the “consensus” line (on Vegas Insider that’s the 2nd column of lines), since by averaging available lines I’m estimating my own consensus.


Sample Win Probabilities. Source: WinThatPool!

3. After identifying the favorites and sorting by their win probability in descending order, this is the result.


Confidence ranks and win probabilities. Source: WinThatPool!


If you have the book and you have additional questions, email me at contact@winthatpool.com.


 Posted by on September 19, 2018 at 5:19 am  Tagged with: