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Sep 282009
 

The Most Likely Estimate for number of upsets, 4, was spot on. But they were painful ones, with 10, 7, 6, and 5 confidence points. The YTD point total reaches 169, hanging in just below the 97rh percentile in ESPN’s College Pick’em.

College FB Picks: Week 4 Post Mortem

 Posted by on September 28, 2009 at 7:09 am
Sep 252009
 

16 BALTIMORE 85.4%
15 DALLAS 74.6%
14 PHILADELPHIA 73.4%
13 MINNESOTA 70.7%
12 WASHINGTON 69.4%
11 GREEN BAY 69.4%
10 NEW YORK G 69.4%
9 SAN DIEGO 68%
8 NEW ORLEANS 68%
7 NEW ENGLAND 63.7%
6 PITTSBURGH 62.2%
5 HOUSTON 60.8%
4 NEW YORK J 57.7%
3 ARIZONA 57.7%
2 CHICAGO 57.7%
1 DENVER 54.7%

Possible total 136
Expected total 95.8
Std. Deviation 17
Likely range: 63 to 129
Prob. no upsets 0.13%

Here’s the complete upset probability distribution:
#Upsets Total
1 2%
2 6%
3 13%
4 19%
5 22%
6 18%
7 12%
8 6%
9 2%
10 1%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%
14 0%
15 0%
16 0%

 Posted by on September 25, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Sep 242009
 

10 PENN STATE 81%
9 STANFORD 68.2%
8 NOTRE DAME 63.5%
7 CALIFORNIA 61.3%
6 CLEMSON 60.4%
5 MIAMI FLORIDA 57.4%
4 WISCONSIN 56.5%
3 GEORGIA TECH 56.5%
2 NC STATE 53.8%
1 HOUSTON 50.8%

Possible total 55
Expected total 35.65
Likely range: 18 to 53
Prob. Perfect 0.7%

Expect several (2 to 6 inclusive) upsets this week. Here’s the probability distribution:

Upsets Total
0 1%
1 4%
2 13%
3 22%
4 25%
5 19%
6 10%
7 4%
8 1%
9 0%
10 0%

College FB Picks: Week 5

 Posted by on September 24, 2009 at 6:49 pm

In case you were wondering: Upset Probability distribution from Week 1

 Confidence pool, NFL, Office pool, Pigskin Pick 'Em, PointMax, upset distribution, Win probability  Comments Off on In case you were wondering: Upset Probability distribution from Week 1
Sep 192009
 

To put the upset distribution for Week 2 in perspective, here’s what the distribution was for Week 1. Recall that only 3 games resulted in upsets in Week 1.

Week 1
#Upsets Probability
1 3%
2 9%
3 18%
4 22%
5 21%
6 14%
7 8%
8 3%
9 1%
10 0%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%
14 0%
15 0%
16 0%

Notice how the distribution shifts in Week 2 toward more upsets being probable than in Week 1.

This is not to suggest that you be lured by the siren song of picking upsets (yet). There’s still plenty of time remaining in the season for that.

 Posted by on September 19, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Sep 192009
 

Expect the number of upsets this week to be between 4 and 7 inclusive. The full distribution is below, rounded to the nearest percentage point. Percentages might not sum to 100 due to rounding.

#Upsets Probability
0 0%
1 1%
2 4%
3 10%
4 16%
5 21%
6 20%
7 15%
8 8%
9 4%
10 1%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%
14 0%
15 0%
16 0%

 Posted by on September 19, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Sep 192009
 

Expect more upsets this week than last. Last week the probability of all favorites winning straight up was approximately 0.48%, or 1 in 200. This week the probability is 0.11%, closer to 1 in 900.

16 MINNESOTA 83.8%
15 WASHINGTON 82.3%
14 GREEN BAY 78.2%
13 TENNESSEE 71.8%
12 ATLANTA 69.9%
11 BUFFALO 65.3%
10 PITTSBURGH 64.2%
9 NEW ENGLAND 63.6%
8 INDIANAPOLIS 62.7%
7 KANSAS CITY 61.2%
6 DENVER 61.1%
5 SAN DIEGO 60.8%
4 JACKSONVILLE 60.2%
3 DALLAS 59.7%
2 NEW ORLEANS 53.9%
1 SAN FRANCISCO 53.7%

Possible total: 136
Expected total: 95.6
Likely range: 63 to 128
Prob. no upsets: 0.11%

I hope to post again prior to the first kickoff with the distribution of #upset probabilities.

 Posted by on September 19, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Sep 162009
 

10 Texas Longhorns 83.3%
9 California Golden Bears 77.8%
8 Clemson Tigers 71.9%
7 North Carolina Tar Heels 69.9%
6 Auburn Tigers 65.1%
5 Iowa Hawkeyes 64.9%
4 Virginia Tech Hokies 60.2%
3 Oregon Ducks 59.9%
2 Arkansas Razorbacks 54.2%
1 Cincinnati Bearcats 52.7%

Possible total: 55
Expected total: 43.24
Likely range: 29 to 55
Prob. Perfect 4.1%

College FB Confidence picks: Weekend of 9/17-920

 Posted by on September 16, 2009 at 5:45 pm