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Sep 192009
 

To put the upset distribution for Week 2 in perspective, here’s what the distribution was for Week 1. Recall that only 3 games resulted in upsets in Week 1.

Week 1
#Upsets Probability
1 3%
2 9%
3 18%
4 22%
5 21%
6 14%
7 8%
8 3%
9 1%
10 0%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%
14 0%
15 0%
16 0%

Notice how the distribution shifts in Week 2 toward more upsets being probable than in Week 1.

This is not to suggest that you be lured by the siren song of picking upsets (yet). There’s still plenty of time remaining in the season for that.

 Posted by on September 19, 2009 at 1:51 pm