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Sep 192009
 

Expect more upsets this week than last. Last week the probability of all favorites winning straight up was approximately 0.48%, or 1 in 200. This week the probability is 0.11%, closer to 1 in 900.

16 MINNESOTA 83.8%
15 WASHINGTON 82.3%
14 GREEN BAY 78.2%
13 TENNESSEE 71.8%
12 ATLANTA 69.9%
11 BUFFALO 65.3%
10 PITTSBURGH 64.2%
9 NEW ENGLAND 63.6%
8 INDIANAPOLIS 62.7%
7 KANSAS CITY 61.2%
6 DENVER 61.1%
5 SAN DIEGO 60.8%
4 JACKSONVILLE 60.2%
3 DALLAS 59.7%
2 NEW ORLEANS 53.9%
1 SAN FRANCISCO 53.7%

Possible total: 136
Expected total: 95.6
Likely range: 63 to 128
Prob. no upsets: 0.11%

I hope to post again prior to the first kickoff with the distribution of #upset probabilities.

 Posted by on September 19, 2009 at 1:41 pm