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Oct 132009
 

Here are this week’s College Pick’em picks:

Confidence Team WinProb
10 ALABAMA 92.0% SOUTH CAROLINA
9 PENN STATE 91.4% MINNESOTA
8 NEBRASKA 79.4% TEXAS TECH
7 USC 78.2% NOTRE DAME
6 OKLAHOMA ST 69.4% MISSOURI
5 CALIFORNIA 60.8% UCLA
4 VIRGINIA TECH 60.8% GEORGIA TECH
3 TEXAS 59.3% OKLAHOMA
2 IOWA 57.7% WISCONSIN
1 BOSTON COLLEGE 57.7% NC STATE

Expected Points 42
Likely range 30 to 54
Probability of zero upsets 2.6%

This week’s Win Probabilities forecast the lowest number of upsets since Week 2. Expect 3 upsets, with a 90% confidence interval between 0 and 6.

So far the number of forecast upsets has been conservative: through Week 6, 18.7 were forecast but only 15 experienced.

Upsets Total
0 3%
1 12%
2 24%
3 28%
4 20%
5 10%
6 3%
7 1%
8 0%
9 0%
10 0%
Grand Total 100%

 Posted by on October 13, 2009 at 7:17 pm