/* ]]> */
Oct 242009
 

If you’re playing in a pool with Weekly Payouts, you have an opportunity to profit by your friends’ tendency to overpick favorites.

Thousands of simulations using this week’s Win Probabilities and likely user pick distributions reveal the following are the picksheets most likely to win you this week’s payout. “Most likekly” doesn’t refer simply to the underdogs most likekly to win, but to the underdogs most likely to win and not have been picked by others in your pool. The number of upsets is conditional on the number of participants in your pool, which is why there are multiple pick sheets below.

Confidence Scoring
60 or fewer participants
WPM Pick WinProb

13 KANSAS CITY 35%
12 NEW ENGLAND 89%
11 INDIANAPOLIS 86%
10 PHILADELPHIA 71%
9 GREEN BAY 71%
8 NEW YORK G 71%
7 CAROLINA 71%
6 NEW ORLEANS 70%
5 NEW YORK J 68%
4 PITTSBURGH 65%
3 DALLAS 63%
2 HOUSTON 60%
1 CINCINNATI 53%
Expected 62.5

Confidence Scoring
61 or more participants
WPM Pick WinProb
13 KANSAS CITY 35%
12 CLEVELAND 29%
11 NEW ENGLAND 89%
10 INDIANAPOLIS 86%
9 PHILADELPHIA 71%
8 NEW YORK G 71%
7 CAROLINA 71%
6 TEN 70%
5 NEW YORK J 68%
4 PITTSBURGH 65%
3 DALLAS 63%
2 SEA 60%
1 MIA 53%
Expected 57.1

If your pool uses Regular scoring (each correct prediction has the same weight as each other), the same picks and numbers of upsets apply, according to the number of participants in your pool.

 Posted by on October 24, 2009 at 7:38 am