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Nov 112009

Whenever I see anyone selling football picks, I ask myself, what’s in it for them? If someone “knows” which underdogs will win, they’d make a lot more money by keeping the knowledge to themselves and wagering in Las Vegas. Conclusion: if anybody selling upset predictions really believed their own predictions, they wouldn’t be selling them to you!

As for Win Probabilities, all the best ones are free, so why would you pay for something inferior? Sagarin’s indexes have been available on USA Today’s website since the mid 1990s, Brian Burke’s estimates are published on the New York Times website. That’s just to name a few. Plenty of others are available, free of charge, on the web and in newspapers. Even if you didn’t look at any of those, you could just sort teams by their Las Vegas point spread, also widely available for free.

My win probabilities are derived from Vegas betting lines. I offer them as a convenience to visitors and as evidence that I know what I’m talking about.

The fact is win probabilities are necessary, but not sufficient, information for winning a football pool. To win a pool you need to combine the Win Probabilities with game theory pertaining to other participants’ picks. The demographics of your pool matter!

 Posted by on November 11, 2009 at 9:46 am