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Pomeroy Ratings Worked as Designed in Rounds 1, 2

 March Madness, Pomeroy, Weekly Payout  Comments Off on Pomeroy Ratings Worked as Designed in Rounds 1, 2
Mar 222010
 

Prior to the tournament tip-off, the Pomeroy ratings predicted just under 24 favorites (not necessarily higher seeds, favorites) to survive the first round and 9 of them to survive through the second round.  The actual results:  24 survived Round 1, another 8 survived Round 2.

 Posted by on March 22, 2010 at 5:04 pm

Q: What’s Wrong With Selecting Kansas in Your Pool? A: You’ve Probably Already Been Eliminated

 basketball, March Madness, Tournament  Comments Off on Q: What’s Wrong With Selecting Kansas in Your Pool? A: You’ve Probably Already Been Eliminated
Mar 192010
 

Depending on your predictive model, Kansas had somewhere between a 20% and a 25% chance of winning the tournament, and so did Duke.  By winning last night, Kansas’ odds didn’t really change much, since they were supposed to beat Lehigh with near certainty, and the same goes for Duke vs. Ar-PB.

Meanwhile, in whatever pool you’re playing some 40% to 50% of its entries picked Kansas to win the championship, but only 6% picked Duke.  While you didn’t know the exact number prior to yesterday, you had pretty strong clues.  Since Monday night,  ESPN had been showing over 40% of its entries had picked Kansas as the champ, and Yahoo! had nearly half!  In other words, the probability that someone actually picked Kansas was twice as much as the probability that Kansas might actually win.

Let’s say you’re in a 20-entry pool and 10 have picked Kansas, 2 picked Duke.  Ex ante, each Kansas entry has a 2.5% shot at winning, while each Duke pick has a 12.5% shot.  Picking Kansas, in effect, was picking the early round upset lottery:  if you didn’t get many of yesterday’s upsets, you’re already screwed.

 Posted by on March 19, 2010 at 11:19 am