/* ]]> */
Mar 222011
 

Imputed survival rates for the remaining teams, using Pomeroy pythagorean ratings through Sunday March 20, are as follows:

Seed Team Pomeroy Elite 8 Final 4 Semis Champion
1 Ohio St. 0.9844 0.760 0.634 0.431 0.316
4 Kentucky 0.9523 0.240 0.148 0.062 0.030
11 Marquette 0.8952 0.362 0.059 0.014 0.004
2 North Carolina 0.9376 0.638 0.159 0.056 0.023
1 Duke 0.9763 0.837 0.576 0.297 0.192
5 Arizona 0.8894 0.163 0.050 0.010 0.003
3 Connecticut 0.9368 0.407 0.133 0.040 0.016
2 San Diego St. 0.9557 0.593 0.241 0.090 0.045
1 Kansas 0.9702 0.821 0.677 0.439 0.200
12 Richmond 0.8765 0.179 0.092 0.027 0.005
11 VCU 0.8193 0.353 0.060 0.013 0.001
7 Florida St. 0.8928 0.647 0.171 0.056 0.011
8 Butler 0.8504 0.200 0.056 0.014 0.002
4 Wisconsin 0.9579 0.800 0.486 0.254 0.095
3 Brigham Young 0.9424 0.561 0.271 0.122 0.037
2 Florida 0.9276 0.439 0.187 0.075 0.019

Over on Yahoo! they offer a Second Chance contest. Fan picks are mostly rational – slightly overvaluing Ohio State and Kansas, and slightly undervaluing Duke. But the real outlier is Wisconsin. Pomeroy ratings imply a nearly 10% chance of the Badgers winning the championship, while only about 1% of fans on Yahoo! have picked them.

If you’re submitting multiple entries, I recommend submitting entries with Wisconsin, Duke, and Ohio State as the champs. Don’t be surprised by an all Big 10 final.

 Posted by on March 22, 2011 at 6:54 pm