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NFL confidence pool results for Super Bowl XLVIII: 0 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool results for Super Bowl XLVIII: 0 points
Feb 062014
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Seattle@Denver @Denver 16 57.7%
Possible points: 16    
Expected: 9.2    
Likely range: 0 to 16    
Actual 0
Year-to-date 1,604
 Posted by on February 6, 2014 at 3:24 pm

Conference championship confidence pool analysis and tactical suggestions

 2013, 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Office pool strategy, Win probability  Comments Off on Conference championship confidence pool analysis and tactical suggestions
Jan 152014
 

Editor’s note: this table and analysis were updated 1/17/14, 9:00p PST. Some fan picks have moved significantly since the initial post.

The table below lists the allotment of fan picks based on the “pick distribution” for Confidence pools available presently on Yahoo.

Confidence Points
%Fans 16 8
26% DEN SEA
26% SEA DEN
20% DEN SF
9% SF NE
9% NE SEA
7% SEA NE
2% NE SF
1% SF DEN

Confidence pool analysis and tactical suggestions:
There is considerable disagreement across fan picks, which makes for some decent potential for tactical maneuvering. If you’re within 8 points of someone ahead of you, even without any tactics by you at all there is a modest chance you could catch them just by entering the highest expected point total slate (16 DEN, 8 SEA). Among slates with 16 points on Denver, 44% of them pick SF instead of SEA. Among slates with 16 on SEA, they’re highly skewed toward DEN.

At this point, if you’re behind by over 16 points, I suggest the second least popular slate, 16 on NE and 8 on SF. The chance of both teams winning is about 1/6. Chances are you’ll be the only one in your pool with that slate, and in the event both teams win you’ll move up anywhere from 8 to 24 points on everyone else.

 Posted by on January 15, 2014 at 1:47 pm

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2014 Divisional Playoff Round: 40 points

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2014 Divisional Playoff Round: 40 points
Jan 122014
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
New Orleans@Seattle @Seattle 12 72.2%
Indianapolis@New England @New England 8 70.1%
San Francisco@Carolina San Francisco 4 55.7%
San Diego@Denver @Denver 16 76.3%
Possible points: 40    
Expected: 28.7    
Likely range: 12 to 40    
Actual 40
Year-to-date 1,580

 Posted by on January 12, 2014 at 7:41 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Wildcard Round

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Wildcard Round
Jan 022014
 

Update: See the later post on how your pool-mates are likely to fill out their picks this weekend.

Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Kansas City@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 8 57.5%
New Orleans@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 4 57.5%
San Diego@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 16 70.1%
San Francisco@Green Bay San Francisco 12 58.3%
Possible points: 40    
Expected: 25.1    
Likely range: 4 to 40    
 Posted by on January 2, 2014 at 12:29 pm

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 17: 131 points

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 17: 131 points
Dec 292013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Carolina@Atlanta Carolina 7 68.4%
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 6 68.2%
Houston@Tennessee @Tennessee 10 70.2%
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 15 80.4%
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 5 66.3%
Detroit@Minnesota @Minnesota 3 58.7%
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 4 60.4%
Cleveland@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 9 70.2%
Green Bay@Chicago Green Bay 2 58.5%
Denver@Oakland Denver 11 75.1%
Buffalo@New England @New England 12 75.4%
Tampa Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 16 82.9%
San Francisco@Arizona San Francisco 1 53.0%
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 13 76.2%
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 14 80.2%
Philadelphia@Dallas Philadelphia 8 69.5%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 100.7    
Likely range: 72 to 125    
Actual 131
Year-to-date 1520
 Posted by on December 29, 2013 at 10:01 pm

Updated: 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on Updated: 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17
Dec 272013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Carolina@Atlanta Carolina 7 68.4%
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 6 68.2%
Houston@Tennessee @Tennessee 10 70.2%
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 15 80.4%
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 5 66.3%
Detroit@Minnesota @Minnesota 3 58.7%
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 4 60.4%
Cleveland@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 9 70.2%
Green Bay@Chicago Green Bay 2 58.5%
Denver@Oakland Denver 11 75.1%
Buffalo@New England @New England 12 75.4%
Tampa Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 16 82.9%
San Francisco@Arizona San Francisco 1 53.0%
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 13 76.2%
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 14 80.2%
Philadelphia@Dallas Philadelphia 8 69.5%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 100.7    
Likely range: 72 to 125    
       
       
 Posted by on December 27, 2013 at 7:29 am

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 17

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 17
Dec 262013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Carolina@Atlanta Carolina 4 64.6%
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 5 68.2%
Houston@Tennessee @Tennessee 7 69.9%
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 15 80.7%
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 6 69.4%
Detroit@Minnesota @Minnesota 1 59.4%
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 2 60.7%
Cleveland@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 10 70.3%
Green Bay@Chicago @Chicago 8 70.0%
Denver@Oakland Denver 11 75.0%
Buffalo@New England @New England 12 76.8%
Tampa Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 16 83.5%
San Francisco@Arizona @Arizona 9 70.1%
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 13 76.9%
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 14 77.9%
Philadelphia@Dallas Philadelphia 3 64.5%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 101.6    
Likely range: 72 to 126    
       
       
 Posted by on December 26, 2013 at 10:49 am