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NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 4: 88 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 4: 88 points
Sep 302013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
San Francisco@St. Louis San Francisco 59.5% 8
Baltimore@Buffalo Baltimore 60.4% 9
Cincinnati@Cleveland Cincinnati 64.0% 12
Chicago@Detroit @Detroit 57.4% 4
New York (NYG)@Kansas City @Kansas City 62.8% 10
Pittsburgh@Minnesota Pittsburgh 53.5% 1
Arizona@Tampa Bay @Tampa Bay 57.8% 5
Indianapolis@Jacksonville Indianapolis 75.4% 14
Seattle@Houston Seattle 58.9% 7
New York (NYJ)@Tennessee @Tennessee 63.3% 11
Philadelphia@Denver @Denver 80.9% 15
Washington@Oakland Washington 58.9% 6
Dallas@San Diego Dallas 55.6% 3
New England@Atlanta @Atlanta 54.0% 2
Miami@New Orleans @New Orleans 69.1% 13
       
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 78.9
Likely range: 51 to 104    
Actual 88
YTD 402
 Posted by on September 30, 2013 at 9:07 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 4

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 4
Sep 242013
 

Editor’s note: Revised the order of these games to be consistent with the order on Yahoo Pro Football Pickem. 9/24/13 9:20a Pacific. Also corrected Pittsburgh @ Minnesota game and Washington @ Oakland game.

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
San Francisco@St. Louis San Francisco 59.5% 8
Baltimore@Buffalo Baltimore 60.4% 9
Cincinnati@Cleveland Cincinnati 64.0% 12
Chicago@Detroit @Detroit 57.4% 4
New York (NYG)@Kansas City @Kansas City 62.8% 10
Pittsburgh@Minnesota Pittsburgh 53.5% 1
Arizona@Tampa Bay @Tampa Bay 57.8% 5
Indianapolis@Jacksonville Indianapolis 75.4% 14
Seattle@Houston Seattle 58.9% 7
New York (NYJ)@Tennessee @Tennessee 63.3% 11
Philadelphia@Denver @Denver 80.9% 15
Washington@Oakland Washington 58.9% 6
Dallas@San Diego Dallas 55.6% 3
New England@Atlanta @Atlanta 54.0% 2
Miami@New Orleans @New Orleans 69.1% 13
       
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 78.9    
Likely range: 51 to 104    

 

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on September 24, 2013 at 8:45 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 3: 88 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 3: 88 points
Sep 232013
 

 

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Kansas City@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 59.3% 9
Green Bay@Cincinnati Green Bay 54.5% 5
St. Louis@Dallas @Dallas 61.7% 10
San Diego@Tennessee @Tennessee 59.1% 8
Cleveland@Minnesota @Minnesota 64.8% 11
Tampa Bay@New England @New England 71.5% 12
Arizona@New Orleans @New Orleans 73.2% 13
Detroit@Washington @Washington 55.3% 6
N.Y. Giants@Carolina @Carolina 53.8% 4
Houston@Baltimore Houston 52.7% 2
Atlanta@Miami @Miami 53.7% 3
Buffalo@N.Y. Jets @N.Y. Jets 55.8% 7
Indianapolis@San Francisco @San Francisco 77.8% 14
Jacksonville@Seattle @Seattle 92.7% 16
Chicago@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 51.4% 1
Oakland@Denver @Denver 86.0% 15
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 95.4 Actual 88
Likely range: 68 to 120
YTD 314
 Posted by on September 23, 2013 at 8:49 pm

A reader asks: Why can your Win Probabilities be so different from the Money Lines’?

 Confidence pool, money line, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on A reader asks: Why can your Win Probabilities be so different from the Money Lines’?
Sep 182013
 

Specifically, the reader was referring to this week’s upcoming Sunday night game, Chicago @ Pittsburgh. Presently, money Line probabilities imply Chicago’s probability to be 57% to 59%, while WinThatPool’s NFL Confidence Picks for Week 3 state Pittsburgh has a win probability of 51%.

The answer has two parts.

1. WinThatPool does not pay attention to money lines.

2. WinThatPool’s probabilities were published Tuesday at 10:00a Eastern. At that time few sports books had posted lines on this game; WinThatPool’s Win Probabilities reflect available information at that time. This is why all WinThatPool’s confidence pool picks end with this disclaimer:

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 

(P.S. WinThatPool typically will not re-estimate Win Probabilities once published.)

 Posted by on September 18, 2013 at 8:58 am

Does the Seahawks’ -20 point spread make them a lock?

 NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on Does the Seahawks’ -20 point spread make them a lock?
Sep 182013
 

Yes it does.

Regardless of whether you call it -19.5 points or -20 points, a point spread that wide on an NFL game is as close to a lock as you can find.

According to data from SportsDatabase, 15 times since 1989 an NFL regular season game had a point spread of 17.5 points or wider. All fifteen favorites won, although they were only 4-11 against the spread.

This does not mean the Seahawks are guaranteed to win, of course. Their 92.7% WinProbability suggests they have about a one in 14 chance of losing.

Some day, a huge favorite like the Seahawks this weekend will lose. The chance that all 16 teams with a 92.7% WinProbability independently go undefeated is only 30%. Extend the sample out to 20 teams and the chance diminishes to 22%.

However, that does not change their chances this weekend, which remain nearly 93%.

 Posted by on September 18, 2013 at 6:32 am

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 3

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 3
Sep 172013
 

 

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Kansas City@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 59.3% 9
Green Bay@Cincinnati Green Bay 54.5% 5
St. Louis@Dallas @Dallas 61.7% 10
San Diego@Tennessee @Tennessee 59.1% 8
Cleveland@Minnesota @Minnesota 64.8% 11
Tampa Bay@New England @New England 71.5% 12
Arizona@New Orleans @New Orleans 73.2% 13
Detroit@Washington @Washington 55.3% 6
N.Y. Giants@Carolina @Carolina 53.8% 4
Houston@Baltimore Houston 52.7% 2
Atlanta@Miami @Miami 53.7% 3
Buffalo@N.Y. Jets @N.Y. Jets 55.8% 7
Indianapolis@San Francisco @San Francisco 77.8% 14
Jacksonville@Seattle @Seattle 92.7% 16
Chicago@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 51.4% 1
Oakland@Denver @Denver 86.0% 15
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 95.4    
Likely range: 68 to 120    

 

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on September 17, 2013 at 7:00 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 2: 115 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 2: 115 points
Sep 162013
 

 

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
N.Y. Jets@New England @New England 81.1% 16
St. Louis@Atlanta @Atlanta 70.3% 12
Carolina@Buffalo Carolina 58.5% 3
Minnesota@Chicago @Chicago 67.6% 9
Washington@Green Bay @Green Bay 72.2% 13
Miami@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 58.7% 4
Dallas@Kansas City @Kansas City 60.0% 5
San Diego@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 72.8% 14
Cleveland@Baltimore @Baltimore 69.3% 11
Tennessee@Houston @Houston 75.4% 15
Detroit@Arizona @Arizona 50.4% 1
New Orleans@Tampa Bay New Orleans 60.4% 6
Jacksonville@Oakland @Oakland 67.6% 10
Denver@N.Y. Giants Denver 61.5% 7
San Francisco@Seattle @Seattle 58.1% 2
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 66.9% 8
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 94.8 Actual 115
Likely range: 65 to 122
YTD 226

 

 Posted by on September 16, 2013 at 9:44 pm

Play in a College confidence pool? Drop your weight on the Colorado game to the minimum

 College Pick 'Em, NCAA football  Comments Off on Play in a College confidence pool? Drop your weight on the Colorado game to the minimum
Sep 132013
 

Due to the flooding in Boulder, the Fresno State at Colorado game, originally scheduled for tomorrow, has been postponed.

If you play in a college confidence pool and the rules allow you to change the ranks of games that have not started, drop your rank on this game to the lowest weight possible. Nobody will get a point for this game so there’s no use wasting your ranking budget.

fresno-state-at-colorado

 Posted by on September 13, 2013 at 7:33 pm

Why “Your Starting Point” for Winning Office Pools? Because strategies vary.

 Confidence pool, NFL, Office pool strategy, Win probability  Comments Off on Why “Your Starting Point” for Winning Office Pools? Because strategies vary.
Sep 122013
 

Sometimes visitors ask why the modest slogan, “your starting point?” Why not something more boastful, more hyperbolic? The answer: Strategies vary, but they all start here.

The reason is, unless you are in a very small (a dozen or fewer) participants, following the NFL confidence pool picks from WinThatPool will probably not be enough to win a pool. But it is an excellent place to start, and an apt benchmark against which to measure any other methodology. Consider the different optimal strategies for a year-end prize and for a weekly prize.

Year-end Prize Strategy
WinThatPool’s picks are meant to maximize your expected number of points over the course of a season. You will notice that many other participants in your pool use confidence ranks quite similar to these. So don’t be surprised if each week one or more people in your pool use confidence ranks identical to these. By year-end, differences will be down to a few random outcomes, and possibly a mis-entered pick or two. So consider these ranks your starting point, and deviate from one or more of these picks a few times during the season, no more. The easiest thing to do is follow these ranks to a T for the first dozen weeks or so. If you are not in the lead, use the Weekly Prize Strategy described below during the last week or two.

Weekly Prize Strategy
All things being equal, every entry’s chance of winning a prize is 1/n, where n is the number of entries. For example, in a pool with 85 entries, each entry should win once every 85 times, or once in five NFL seasons. While WinThatPool’s ranks are dominant over the course of an entire season, in any single week they will almost never win a prize (their chance of winning is much lower than 1/n; in an 85 player pool you might wait a decade or longer before you win a weekly prize). Instead, start with WinThatPool’s picks and then take a bold deviation – pick the underdog in one of the top three games (rank 16, 15, or 14 in a 16 game week) and leave the confidence rank unchanged. By doing so, you will have almost no chance to win the cumulative prize at season-end, but your chance of winning a weekly prize will be much better than 1/n.

 Posted by on September 12, 2013 at 10:24 am

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 2

 2013, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 2
Sep 102013
 

 

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
N.Y. Jets@New England @New England 81.1% 16
St. Louis@Atlanta @Atlanta 70.3% 12
Carolina@Buffalo Carolina 58.5% 3
Minnesota@Chicago @Chicago 67.6% 9
Washington@Green Bay @Green Bay 72.2% 13
Miami@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 58.7% 4
Dallas@Kansas City @Kansas City 60.0% 5
San Diego@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 72.8% 14
Cleveland@Baltimore @Baltimore 69.3% 11
Tennessee@Houston @Houston 75.4% 15
Detroit@Arizona @Arizona 50.4% 1
New Orleans@Tampa Bay New Orleans 60.4% 6
Jacksonville@Oakland @Oakland 67.6% 10
Denver@N.Y. Giants Denver 61.5% 7
San Francisco@Seattle @Seattle 58.1% 2
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 66.9% 8
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 94.8    
Likely range: 65 to 122    

 

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on September 10, 2013 at 8:34 pm