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Sep 182013

Yes it does.

Regardless of whether you call it -19.5 points or -20 points, a point spread that wide on an NFL game is as close to a lock as you can find.

According to data from SportsDatabase, 15 times since 1989 an NFL regular season game had a point spread of 17.5 points or wider. All fifteen favorites won, although they were only 4-11 against the spread.

This does not mean the Seahawks are guaranteed to win, of course. Their 92.7% WinProbability suggests they have about a one in 14 chance of losing.

Some day, a huge favorite like the Seahawks this weekend will lose. The chance that all 16 teams with a 92.7% WinProbability independently go undefeated is only 30%. Extend the sample out to 20 teams and the chance diminishes to 22%.

However, that does not change their chances this weekend, which remain nearly 93%.

 Posted by on September 18, 2013 at 6:32 am