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WinThatPool! top NFL “bot” through week 8

 2013, NFL, Results, Win probability  Comments Off on WinThatPool! top NFL “bot” through week 8
Oct 312013
 

This year WinThatPool! is participating in NFLstatheads’ “Battle of the Bots” on reddit.

One of the things I like best about this competition is it explicitly measures WinProbability accuracy by applying an economic cost model. The results reflect a model’s accuracy better than a simple count of correct versus incorrect or a confidence pool point total. The lower the “cost,” the better.

Yesterday, a post updated the YTD rankings through eight weeks.

Follow the link, scroll to the bottom of the post and you’ll see the table below listing the year-to-date rankings:

Here are the standings after week 8 (only including those who had a week 8 entry):

Entrant Total Cost
WinThatPool – Human 22.352
Philosotoaster – Bot (Bot1) 23.327
steve496 – Bot 23.514
Rufus_Reddit – Human (Vegas Moneyline) 23.538
pudds – Bot (alg6) 23.562
Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Simple Modified Pythagoran) 23.63
Rufus_Reddit – Bot 23.859
Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Fancy Modified Pythagoran) 23.951
UncountablyFinite – Bot (Original Bot) 24.06
Wallamaru – Human 24.1
Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Gamescript Linear Model B) 24.105
pudds – Bot (alg7) 24.157
UncountablyFinite – Bot (Bot 2.0) 24.2
Philosotoaster – Human 24.547
Philosotoaster – Bot (Bot2) 25.38
k_Bomb – Human 25.981
redditcdnfanguy – Bot 26.521
BuckNewman – Human 26.855

Note that this competition didn’t begin until around Week 3 or 4 of the season, so these results are not as close to half a season’s worth of picks as you might think.

Don’t know how the rankings will hold up over the next nine weeks, but so far, so good!

 Posted by on October 31, 2013 at 12:10 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 9

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 9
Oct 292013
 

Breaking news: After Week 8, WinThatPool ranks at the top of NFLstatheads’ Battle of the Bots

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Cincinnati@Miami Cincinnati 53.4% 2
Kansas City@Buffalo Kansas City 59.7% 7
Minnesota@Dallas @Dallas 79.1% 11
Tennessee@St. Louis Tennessee 58.9% 6
New Orleans@N.Y. Jets New Orleans 66.5% 8
San Diego@Washington San Diego* 50.0% 1
Atlanta@Carolina @Carolina 72.0% 10
Philadelphia@Oakland Philadelphia 57.5% 4
Tampa Bay@Seattle @Seattle 90.5% 13
Baltimore@Cleveland Baltimore 58.2% 5
Pittsburgh@New England @New England 70.3% 9
Indianapolis@Houston Indianapolis 56.5% 3
Chicago@Green Bay @Green Bay 80.2% 12
Possible points: 91    
Expected: 65.1    
Likely range: 43 to 82    

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.


*For the purpose of breaking ties, WinThatPool! adds a small random number and in this case, it came out in San Diego’s favor.

 Posted by on October 29, 2013 at 5:51 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 8: 84 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 8: 84 points
Oct 282013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Carolina@Tampa Bay Carolina 64.6% 4
Dallas@Detroit @Detroit 58.9% 3
Cleveland@Kansas City @Kansas City 71.5% 9
Miami@New England @New England 70.5% 8
Buffalo@New Orleans @New Orleans 82.5% 12
New York (NYG)@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 68.1% 5
San Francisco@Jacksonville San Francisco 89.8% 13
New York (NYJ)@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 69.5% 7
Pittsburgh@Oakland Pittsburgh 58.7% 2
Washington@Denver @Denver 82.3% 11
Atlanta@Arizona @Arizona 57.4% 1
Green Bay@Minnesota Green Bay 68.5% 6
Seattle@St. Louis Seattle 76.6% 10
Possible points: 91    
Expected: 68.8    
Likely range: 48 to 86    
Actual 84
YTD 735
 Posted by on October 28, 2013 at 8:50 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 8

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 8
Oct 222013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Carolina@Tampa Bay Carolina 64.6% 4
Dallas@Detroit @Detroit 58.9% 3
Cleveland@Kansas City @Kansas City 71.5% 9
Miami@New England @New England 70.5% 8
Buffalo@New Orleans @New Orleans 82.5% 12
New York (NYG)@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 68.1% 5
San Francisco@Jacksonville San Francisco 89.8% 13
New York (NYJ)@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 69.5% 7
Pittsburgh@Oakland Pittsburgh 58.7% 2
Washington@Denver @Denver 82.3% 11
Atlanta@Arizona @Arizona 57.4% 1
Green Bay@Minnesota Green Bay 68.5% 6
Seattle@St. Louis Seattle 76.6% 10
Possible points: 91    
Expected: 68.8    
Likely range: 48 to 86    

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on October 22, 2013 at 10:32 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 7: 84 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 7: 84 points
Oct 212013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Seattle@Arizona Seattle 68.4% 10
Tampa Bay@Atlanta @Atlanta 72.1% 14
Cincinnati@Detroit @Detroit 58.4% 5
Buffalo@Miami @Miami 71.8% 13
New England@N.Y. Jets New England 61.5% 7
Dallas@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 56.6% 3
Chicago@Washington @Washington 57.0% 4
St. Louis@Carolina @Carolina 67.4% 9
San Diego@Jacksonville San Diego 71.7% 12
San Francisco@Tennessee San Francisco 54.4% 1
Cleveland@Green Bay @Green Bay 78.9% 15
Houston@Kansas City @Kansas City 68.7% 11
Baltimore@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 54.9% 2
Denver@Indianapolis Denver 67.0% 8
Minnesota@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 61.4% 6
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 82.2    
Likely range: 61 to 115    
Actual 84
YTD 651
 Posted by on October 21, 2013 at 8:50 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 7

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 7
Oct 152013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Seattle@Arizona Seattle 68.4% 10
Tampa Bay@Atlanta @Atlanta 72.1% 14
Cincinnati@Detroit @Detroit 58.4% 5
Buffalo@Miami @Miami 71.8% 13
New England@N.Y. Jets New England 61.5% 7
Dallas@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 56.6% 3
Chicago@Washington @Washington 57.0% 4
St. Louis@Carolina @Carolina 67.4% 9
San Diego@Jacksonville San Diego 71.7% 12
San Francisco@Tennessee San Francisco 54.4% 1
Cleveland@Green Bay @Green Bay 78.9% 15
Houston@Kansas City @Kansas City 68.7% 11
Baltimore@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 54.9% 2
Denver@Indianapolis Denver 67.0% 8
Minnesota@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 61.4% 6
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 82.2    
Likely range: 61 to 115    
       
       

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on October 15, 2013 at 6:37 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 6: 102 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 6: 102 points
Oct 142013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
New York (NYG)@Chicago @Chicago 68.6% 9
Cincinnati@Buffalo Cincinnati 70.2% 10
Detroit@Cleveland Detroit 58.1% 7
Oakland@Kansas City @Kansas City 73.7% 12
Carolina@Minnesota @Minnesota 56.2% 4
Pittsburgh@New York (NYJ) @New York (NYJ) 53.0% 2
Philadelphia@Tampa Bay Philadelphia 54.0% 3
Green Bay@Baltimore Green Bay 57.7% 6
St. Louis@Houston @Houston 71.5% 11
Jacksonville@Denver @Denver 97.8% 15
Tennessee@Seattle @Seattle 84.8% 14
New Orleans@New England @New England 57.6% 5
Arizona@San Francisco @San Francisco 78.9% 13
Washington@Dallas @Dallas 65.9% 8
Indianapolis@San Diego Indianapolis 51.6% 1
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 87.3    
Likely range: 63 to 109    
Actual 102
YTD 567
 Posted by on October 14, 2013 at 9:33 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 6

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 6
Oct 082013
 

Editor’s note: Corrected the predicted victor of the Pittsburgh @NY Jets game to be @NY Jets, 10/8 8:45a Pacific Time.

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
New York (NYG)@Chicago @Chicago 68.6% 9
Cincinnati@Buffalo Cincinnati 70.2% 10
Detroit@Cleveland Detroit 58.1% 7
Oakland@Kansas City @Kansas City 73.7% 12
Carolina@Minnesota @Minnesota 56.2% 4
Pittsburgh@New York (NYJ) @New York (NYJ) 53.0% 2
Philadelphia@Tampa Bay Philadelphia 54.0% 3
Green Bay@Baltimore Green Bay 57.7% 6
St. Louis@Houston @Houston 71.5% 11
Jacksonville@Denver @Denver 97.8% 15
Tennessee@Seattle @Seattle 84.8% 14
New Orleans@New England @New England 57.6% 5
Arizona@San Francisco @San Francisco 78.9% 13
Washington@Dallas @Dallas 65.9% 8
Indianapolis@San Diego Indianapolis 51.6% 1
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 87.3    
Likely range: 63 to 109    

 

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on October 8, 2013 at 8:33 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 5: 63 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 5: 63 points
Oct 072013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Buffalo@Cleveland @Cleveland 62.8% 8
New Orleans@Chicago @Chicago 53.7% 1
New England@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 53.7% 2
Detroit@Green Bay @Green Bay 69.8% 10
Kansas City@Tennessee Kansas City 57.5% 6
Seattle@Indianapolis Seattle 57.4% 5
Jacksonville@St. Louis @St. Louis 81.2% 14
Baltimore@Miami @Miami 59.3% 7
Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 56.7% 4
Carolina@Arizona Carolina 54.7% 3
Denver@Dallas Denver 71.6% 12
Houston@San Francisco @San Francisco 70.5% 11
San Diego@Oakland San Diego 63.7% 9
N.Y. Jets@Atlanta @Atlanta 74.9% 13
Possible points: 105    
Expected: 71.2    
Likely range: 50 to 71    
Actual 63
YTD 465
 Posted by on October 7, 2013 at 9:07 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 5

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 5
Oct 012013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Buffalo@Cleveland @Cleveland 62.8% 8
New Orleans@Chicago @Chicago 53.7% 1
New England@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 53.7% 2
Detroit@Green Bay @Green Bay 69.8% 10
Kansas City@Tennessee Kansas City 57.5% 6
Seattle@Indianapolis Seattle 57.4% 5
Jacksonville@St. Louis @St. Louis 81.2% 14
Baltimore@Miami @Miami 59.3% 7
Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 56.7% 4
Carolina@Arizona Carolina 54.7% 3
Denver@Dallas Denver 71.6% 12
Houston@San Francisco @San Francisco 70.5% 11
San Diego@Oakland San Diego 63.7% 9
N.Y. Jets@Atlanta @Atlanta 74.9% 13
Possible points: 105    
Expected: 71.2    
Likely range: 50 to 71    

 

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on October 1, 2013 at 5:43 am