This year WinThatPool! is participating in NFLstatheads’ “Battle of the Bots” on reddit.
One of the things I like best about this competition is it explicitly measures WinProbability accuracy by applying an economic cost model. The results reflect a model’s accuracy better than a simple count of correct versus incorrect or a confidence pool point total. The lower the “cost,” the better.
Follow the link, scroll to the bottom of the post and you’ll see the table below listing the year-to-date rankings:
Here are the standings after week 8 (only including those who had a week 8 entry):
|WinThatPool – Human||22.352|
|Philosotoaster – Bot (Bot1)||23.327|
|steve496 – Bot||23.514|
|Rufus_Reddit – Human (Vegas Moneyline)||23.538|
|pudds – Bot (alg6)||23.562|
|Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Simple Modified Pythagoran)||23.63|
|Rufus_Reddit – Bot||23.859|
|Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Fancy Modified Pythagoran)||23.951|
|UncountablyFinite – Bot (Original Bot)||24.06|
|Wallamaru – Human||24.1|
|Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Gamescript Linear Model B)||24.105|
|pudds – Bot (alg7)||24.157|
|UncountablyFinite – Bot (Bot 2.0)||24.2|
|Philosotoaster – Human||24.547|
|Philosotoaster – Bot (Bot2)||25.38|
|k_Bomb – Human||25.981|
|redditcdnfanguy – Bot||26.521|
|BuckNewman – Human||26.855|
Note that this competition didn’t begin until around Week 3 or 4 of the season, so these results are not as close to half a season’s worth of picks as you might think.
Don’t know how the rankings will hold up over the next nine weeks, but so far, so good!