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2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 13

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 13
Nov 262013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Green Bay@Detroit @Detroit 68.5% 11
Oakland@Dallas @Dallas 76.6% 15
Pittsburgh@Baltimore @Baltimore 58.7% 5
Jacksonville@Cleveland @Cleveland 69.9% 12
Tennessee@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 62.0% 9
Chicago@Minnesota Chicago 51.0% 1
Miami@New York (NYJ) @New York (NYJ) 53.3% 2
Arizona@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 59.6% 6
Tampa Bay@Carolina @Carolina 73.7% 13
New England@Houston New England 74.1% 14
Atlanta@Buffalo @Buffalo 60.2% 7
St. Louis@San Francisco @San Francisco 76.8% 16
Denver@Kansas City Denver 61.5% 8
Cincinnati@San Diego @San Diego 54.8% 4
New York (NYG)@Washington New York (NYG) 54.5% 3
New Orleans@Seattle @Seattle 67.2% 10
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 93.0    
Likely range: 57 to 112    
       
       

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on November 26, 2013 at 8:57 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 12: 45 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 12: 45 points
Nov 252013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
New Orleans@Atlanta New Orleans 66.2% 12
Pittsburgh@Cleveland @Cleveland 54.7% 2
Tampa Bay@Detroit @Detroit 76.3% 13
Minnesota@Green Bay @Green Bay 62.8% 9
San Diego@Kansas City @Kansas City 65.5% 11
Chicago@St. Louis @St. Louis 54.8% 3
Carolina@Miami Carolina 61.1% 7
N.Y. Jets@Baltimore @Baltimore 61.4% 8
Jacksonville@Houston @Houston 78.0% 14
Tennessee@Oakland @Oakland 56.6% 5
Indianapolis@Arizona @Arizona 56.3% 4
Dallas@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 58.4% 6
Denver@New England @New England 50.0% 1
San Francisco@Washington San Francisco 62.8% 10
Possible points: 105    
Expected: 68.4    
Likely range: 43 to 92    
Actual 45
Year-to-date 994
 Posted by on November 25, 2013 at 8:32 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 12

 2013, Confidence pool, neglected teams, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 12
Nov 192013
 

WinThatPool! remains the top bot after Week 11 in NFLstatheads’ Battle of the Bots

Nov 19, 6:40a PST: The WinProbability for New England has been revised downward, and ranks, expected, and likely ranges have been updated accordingly.

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
New Orleans@Atlanta New Orleans 66.2% 12
Pittsburgh@Cleveland @Cleveland 54.7% 2
Tampa Bay@Detroit @Detroit 76.3% 13
Minnesota@Green Bay @Green Bay 62.8% 9
San Diego@Kansas City @Kansas City 65.5% 11
Chicago@St. Louis @St. Louis 54.8% 3
Carolina@Miami Carolina 61.1% 7
N.Y. Jets@Baltimore @Baltimore 61.4% 8
Jacksonville@Houston @Houston 78.0% 14
Tennessee@Oakland @Oakland 56.6% 5
Indianapolis@Arizona @Arizona 56.3% 4
Dallas@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 58.4% 6
Denver@New England @New England 50.0% 1
San Francisco@Washington San Francisco 62.8% 10
Possible points: 105    
Expected: 68.4    
Likely range: 43 to 92    

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on November 19, 2013 at 7:05 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 11: 97 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 11: 97 points
Nov 182013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@Tennessee Indianapolis 58.7% 7
N.Y. Jets@Buffalo @Buffalo 53.8% 4
Baltimore@Chicago @Chicago 58.8% 8
Cleveland@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 66.7% 11
Washington@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 60.2% 9
Detroit@Pittsburgh Detroit 55.4% 6
Atlanta@Tampa Bay Atlanta 53.8% 3
Arizona@Jacksonville Arizona 69.4% 12
Oakland@Houston @Houston 70.2% 13
San Diego@Miami San Diego 51.7% 1
San Francisco@New Orleans @New Orleans 55.0% 5
Green Bay@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 65.5% 10
Minnesota@Seattle @Seattle 82.1% 15
Kansas City@Denver @Denver 74.2% 14
New England@Carolina @Carolina 51.9% 2
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 79.7    
Likely range: 52 to 105    
Actual 97
Year-to-date 949
 Posted by on November 18, 2013 at 10:38 pm

WinThatPool! remains top NFL bot through Week 10

 2013, Battle of the Bots, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on WinThatPool! remains top NFL bot through Week 10
Nov 152013
 

The Battle of the Bots results have been updated through Week 10. Apparently we all had a lousy Week 10.

I reproduce the cumulative rankings below.

Entrant Total Cost
WinThatPool – Human 30.699
pudds – Bot (alg6) 31.768
Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Simple Modified Pythagoran) 32.011
pudds – Bot (alg7) 32.365
Philosotoaster – Human 32.501
Rufus_Reddit – Bot (Fancy Modified Pythagoran) 32.545
steve496 – Bot 32.564
Rufus_Reddit – Bot 32.924
Wallamaru – Human 32.946
Philosotoaster – Bot (Bot1) 32.982
Philosotoaster – Bot (Bot2) 33.138
k_Bomb – Human 34.947
jocloud31 – Human 35.094
BuckNewman – Human 35.602
redditcdnfanguy – Bot 36.399

See the results first hand on reddit.

See the results through Week 9 here.

As a reminder, this contest measures all predictions’ economic cost using a logistic function. The cost of a correct prediction is -log(1-WinProbability), and the cost of an incorrect prediction is -log(WinProbability). Battle penalizes you fairly and proportionately for both overconfidence and timidity. It gives a clearer depiction of the accuracy of anybody’s WinProbabilities, as opposed to a Confidence Pool, which forces you to score WinProbabilities ordinally. Your rankings for a Confidence Pool depend on all your WinProbabilities for that week’s slate of games, whereas in Battle your cost of being right or wrong on any individual game does not depend on the other games’ probabilities.

Consider the Week 11 predictions. In a Confidence Pool, for Week 11 an upset in the Minnesota@Seattle game hurts 15 times as much as an upset in the San Diego@Miami game. In Battle of the Bots, it hurts only about 2.4 times as much, reflecting the relative (predicted) chance of being wrong.

 

 Posted by on November 15, 2013 at 12:16 pm

How bad was the Week 10 result? Not as bad as it seemed at the time

 2013, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on How bad was the Week 10 result? Not as bad as it seemed at the time
Nov 122013
 

With five of the first six games predicted incorrectly, including the top ranked and second ranked games, Week 10 felt like a disaster at the time.

However, by the end of the weekend WinThatPool!’s ranks garnered 54 points. This amount was within the 90% confidence interval (48 to 94). For that matter, in the 2013 season we have yet to experience a week outside the 90% confidence interval. In a 17 week season, typically one or two weeks’ results fall outside their 90% confidence interval. In other words, there is good news and bad news.

Good news: Week 10 wasn’t that bad.
Bad news: We should not be surprised to experience a week worse than this one before the playoffs.

Year-to-date results: In line with expectations
Given each week’s Win Probabilities and ranks, for the year-to-date point total the 90% confidence interval is 797 to 960. The median is 881. The actual year-to-date total of 852 ranks at the 29th percentile.

 

Simulated Year-to-Date Point Distribution

10,000 trials
simulated-points-10-weeks

In other words, the year-to-date point total of 852 through 10 weeks is slightly lower than you would expect by chance.

 

 

 Posted by on November 12, 2013 at 9:40 am

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 11

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 11
Nov 122013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@Tennessee Indianapolis 58.7% 7
N.Y. Jets@Buffalo @Buffalo 53.8% 4
Baltimore@Chicago @Chicago 58.8% 8
Cleveland@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 66.7% 11
Washington@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 60.2% 9
Detroit@Pittsburgh Detroit 55.4% 6
Atlanta@Tampa Bay Atlanta 53.8% 3
Arizona@Jacksonville Arizona 69.4% 12
Oakland@Houston @Houston 70.2% 13
San Diego@Miami San Diego 51.7% 1
San Francisco@New Orleans @New Orleans 55.0% 5
Green Bay@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 65.5% 10
Minnesota@Seattle @Seattle 82.1% 15
Kansas City@Denver @Denver 74.2% 14
New England@Carolina @Carolina 51.9% 2
Possible points: 120    
Expected: 79.7    
Likely range: 52 to 105    
       

 Posted by on November 12, 2013 at 8:15 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 10: 54 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 10: 54 points
Nov 112013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Washington@Minnesota Washington 56.8% 5
Seattle@Atlanta Seattle 64.4% 8
Detroit@Chicago @Chicago 50.7% 1
Philadelphia@Green Bay @Green Bay 54.8% 3
Jacksonville@Tennessee @Tennessee 84.0% 14
St. Louis@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 77.8% 13
Oakland@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 70.9% 12
Buffalo@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 61.8% 7
Cincinnati@Baltimore Cincinnati 54.8% 2
Carolina@San Francisco @San Francisco 68.8% 9
Houston@Arizona @Arizona 57.2% 6
Denver@San Diego Denver 70.1% 11
Dallas@New Orleans @New Orleans 68.9% 10
Miami@Tampa Bay Miami 55.1% 4
Possible points: 105    
Expected: 72.3    
Likely range: 48 to 94
Actual 54
Year-to-date 852
 Posted by on November 11, 2013 at 8:44 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 10

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 10
Nov 052013
 

Ed. The WinProbability for Green Bay has been revised downward since Tuesday morning. Ranks, expected points, and confidence intervals have been revised accordingly. 11/5/2013 12:53 PST

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Washington@Minnesota Washington 56.8% 5
Seattle@Atlanta Seattle 64.4% 8
Detroit@Chicago @Chicago 50.7% 1
Philadelphia@Green Bay @Green Bay 54.8% 3
Jacksonville@Tennessee @Tennessee 84.0% 14
St. Louis@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 77.8% 13
Oakland@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 70.9% 12
Buffalo@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 61.8% 7
Cincinnati@Baltimore Cincinnati 54.8% 2
Carolina@San Francisco @San Francisco 68.8% 9
Houston@Arizona @Arizona 57.2% 6
Denver@San Diego Denver 70.1% 11
Dallas@New Orleans @New Orleans 68.9% 10
Miami@Tampa Bay Miami 55.1% 4
Possible points: 105    
Expected: 72.3    
Likely range: 48 to 94    

The table lists WinThatPool’s recommended Confidence pool picks for this week. If you want to maximize your chance of winning a year-end payout, use these picks. (If you want to maximize your chance of winning a weekly prize, you should deviate from one or more of these picks.)

Below the top table is a summary of the possible points available this week, the expected points from these Confidence weights, and the likely range (90% confidence interval) of possible points.

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 Posted by on November 5, 2013 at 7:58 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 9: 63 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 9: 63 points
Nov 042013
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Cincinnati@Miami Cincinnati 53.4% 2
Kansas City@Buffalo Kansas City 59.7% 7
Minnesota@Dallas @Dallas 79.1% 11
Tennessee@St. Louis Tennessee 58.9% 6
New Orleans@N.Y. Jets New Orleans 66.5% 8
San Diego@Washington San Diego 50.0% 1
Atlanta@Carolina @Carolina 72.0% 10
Philadelphia@Oakland Philadelphia 57.5% 4
Tampa Bay@Seattle @Seattle 90.5% 13
Baltimore@Cleveland Baltimore 58.2% 5
Pittsburgh@New England @New England 70.3% 9
Indianapolis@Houston Indianapolis 56.5% 3
Chicago@Green Bay @Green Bay 80.2% 12
Possible points: 91    
Expected: 65.1    
Likely range: 43 to 82    
Actual 63
YTD 798
 Posted by on November 4, 2013 at 8:43 pm