With five of the first six games predicted incorrectly, including the top ranked and second ranked games, Week 10 felt like a disaster at the time.
However, by the end of the weekend WinThatPool!’s ranks garnered 54 points. This amount was within the 90% confidence interval (48 to 94). For that matter, in the 2013 season we have yet to experience a week outside the 90% confidence interval. In a 17 week season, typically one or two weeks’ results fall outside their 90% confidence interval. In other words, there is good news and bad news.
Good news: Week 10 wasn’t that bad.
Bad news: We should not be surprised to experience a week worse than this one before the playoffs.
Year-to-date results: In line with expectations
Given each week’s Win Probabilities and ranks, for the year-to-date point total the 90% confidence interval is 797 to 960. The median is 881. The actual year-to-date total of 852 ranks at the 29th percentile.
Simulated Year-to-Date Point Distribution
In other words, the year-to-date point total of 852 through 10 weeks is slightly lower than you would expect by chance.