/* ]]> */

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 17: 131 points

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 17: 131 points
Dec 292013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Carolina@Atlanta Carolina 7 68.4%
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 6 68.2%
Houston@Tennessee @Tennessee 10 70.2%
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 15 80.4%
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 5 66.3%
Detroit@Minnesota @Minnesota 3 58.7%
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 4 60.4%
Cleveland@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 9 70.2%
Green Bay@Chicago Green Bay 2 58.5%
Denver@Oakland Denver 11 75.1%
Buffalo@New England @New England 12 75.4%
Tampa Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 16 82.9%
San Francisco@Arizona San Francisco 1 53.0%
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 13 76.2%
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 14 80.2%
Philadelphia@Dallas Philadelphia 8 69.5%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 100.7    
Likely range: 72 to 125    
Actual 131
Year-to-date 1520
 Posted by on December 29, 2013 at 10:01 pm

Updated: 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on Updated: 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17
Dec 272013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Carolina@Atlanta Carolina 7 68.4%
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 6 68.2%
Houston@Tennessee @Tennessee 10 70.2%
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 15 80.4%
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 5 66.3%
Detroit@Minnesota @Minnesota 3 58.7%
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 4 60.4%
Cleveland@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 9 70.2%
Green Bay@Chicago Green Bay 2 58.5%
Denver@Oakland Denver 11 75.1%
Buffalo@New England @New England 12 75.4%
Tampa Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 16 82.9%
San Francisco@Arizona San Francisco 1 53.0%
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 13 76.2%
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 14 80.2%
Philadelphia@Dallas Philadelphia 8 69.5%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 100.7    
Likely range: 72 to 125    
       
       
 Posted by on December 27, 2013 at 7:29 am

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 17

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 17
Dec 262013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Carolina@Atlanta Carolina 4 64.6%
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 5 68.2%
Houston@Tennessee @Tennessee 7 69.9%
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 15 80.7%
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 6 69.4%
Detroit@Minnesota @Minnesota 1 59.4%
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 2 60.7%
Cleveland@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 10 70.3%
Green Bay@Chicago @Chicago 8 70.0%
Denver@Oakland Denver 11 75.0%
Buffalo@New England @New England 12 76.8%
Tampa Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 16 83.5%
San Francisco@Arizona @Arizona 9 70.1%
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 13 76.9%
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 14 77.9%
Philadelphia@Dallas Philadelphia 3 64.5%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 101.6    
Likely range: 72 to 126    
       
       
 Posted by on December 26, 2013 at 10:49 am

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 16: 90 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 16: 90 points
Dec 242013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Miami@Buffalo Miami 5 58.24%
Minnesota@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 11 73.42%
Indianapolis@Kansas City @Kansas City 10 69.63%
Tampa Bay@St. Louis @St. Louis 8 62.76%
Cleveland@New York (NYJ) @New York (NYJ) 2 56.19%
Dallas@Washington Dallas 4 58.16%
New Orleans@Carolina @Carolina 7 59.39%
Tennessee@Jacksonville Tennessee 9 64.17%
Denver@Houston Denver 14 77.95%
New York (NYG)@Detroit @Detroit 12 76.78%
Arizona@Seattle @Seattle 15 78.99%
Pittsburgh@Green Bay @Green Bay 3 57.42%
Oakland@San Diego @San Diego 13 77.56%
New England@Baltimore @Baltimore 1 56.01%
Chicago@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 6 58.92%
Atlanta@San Francisco @San Francisco 16 83.89%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 97.7    
Likely range: 69 to 123    
Actual 90
Year-to-date 1389
 Posted by on December 24, 2013 at 8:56 am

College pools

 College Pick 'Em  Comments Off on College pools
Dec 212013
 
2015 March Madness - Regret minimizing bracket
Tournament Pool Size Widget
2015 March Madness - Expected Survival Rates
2015 March Madness - Most Likely Bracket
2014 College FB Bowls
2014 College FB Week 15
2014 College FB Week 14
2014 College FB Week 13
2014 College FB Week 12
2014 College FB Week 11
2014 College FB Week 10
2014 College FB Week 9
2014 College FB Week 8
2014 College FB Week 7
2014 College FB Week 6
2014 College FB Week 5
2014 College FB Week 4
2014 College FB Week 3
2014 College FB Week 2
2014 College FB Week 1
2014 March Madness
2013-2014 College Football Bowls
 Posted by on December 21, 2013 at 8:36 am

2013-2014 NCAA Football Bowls – Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities

 College football, Confidence pool, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013-2014 NCAA Football Bowls – Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities
Dec 212013
 

For the college football fans out there:
 

Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Fiesta Baylor 35 85.9%
Sugar Alabama 34 84.0%
Pinstripe Notre Dame 33 82.2%
Holiday Arizona St. 32 81.9%
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s East Carolina 31 81.6%
Alamo Oregon 30 81.3%
Chick-fil-A Texas A&M 29 78.2%
Gator Georgia 28 71.7%
GoDaddy Ball St. 27 71.5%
BCS Championship Florida St. 26 70.0%
Advocare V100 Arizona 25 68.4%
Outback LSU 24 68.1%
Sun UCLA 23 67.7%
Heart of Dallas North Texas 22 66.3%
Armed Forces Navy 21 65.2%
Rose Stanford 20 63.7%
New Mexico Washington St. 19 63.5%
Liberty Mississippi St. 18 62.5%
Little Caesars Bowling Green 17 61.5%
Las Vegas USC 16 61.4%
Texas Minnesota 15 61.0%
Buffalo Wild Wings Kansas St. 14 59.5%
Russell Athletic Louisville 13 58.4%
Music City Mississippi 12 57.9%
Fight Hunger Washington 11 57.6%
Belk North Carolina 10 57.6%
Hawaii Oregon St. 9 57.4%
BBVA Compass Vanderbilt 8 57.3%
Orange Ohio St. 7 56.4%
Military Marshall 6 56.2%
New Orleans Tulane 5 54.8%
Poinsettia Northern Illinois 4 54.2%
Cotton Missouri 3 53.0%
Idaho Potato San Diego St. 2 52.9%
Capital One Wisconsin 1 52.2%
Possible points: 630    
Expected: 444.8    
Likely range: 355 to 528    
       
       
 Posted by on December 21, 2013 at 8:10 am

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 16

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 16
Dec 172013
 

12/20/13 12:50p PST – The Win Probability on the Pittsburgh/GreenBay game has been updated.
12/19/13 6:25a PST – The Win Probability on the Pittsburgh/GreenBay game is volatile and likely to change. If it does change, the Confidence Ranks for several games could change, too. Check back before kickoff of the early Sunday games.

Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Miami@Buffalo Miami 5 58.24%
Minnesota@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 11 73.42%
Indianapolis@Kansas City @Kansas City 10 69.63%
Tampa Bay@St. Louis @St. Louis 8 62.76%
Cleveland@New York (NYJ) @New York (NYJ) 2 56.19%
Dallas@Washington Dallas 4 58.16%
New Orleans@Carolina @Carolina 7 59.39%
Tennessee@Jacksonville Tennessee 9 64.17%
Denver@Houston Denver 14 77.95%
New York (NYG)@Detroit @Detroit 12 76.78%
Arizona@Seattle @Seattle 15 78.99%
Pittsburgh@Green Bay @Green Bay 3 57.42%
Oakland@San Diego @San Diego 13 77.56%
New England@Baltimore @Baltimore 1 56.01%
Chicago@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 6 58.92%
Atlanta@San Francisco @San Francisco 16 83.89%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 97.7    
Likely range: 69 to 123    
       
       
 Posted by on December 17, 2013 at 2:16 pm

NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 15: 72 points

 2013, NFL, Results  Comments Off on NFL confidence pool picks and results for 2013, Week 15: 72 points
Dec 162013
 
Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
San Diego@Denver @Denver 15 78.33%
Washington@Atlanta @Atlanta 12 69.61%
Chicago@Cleveland Chicago 1 52.96%
Houston@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 9 66.94%
New England@Miami New England 3 55.96%
Philadelphia@Minnesota Philadelphia 7 64.63%
Seattle@New York (NYG) Seattle 14 70.32%
San Francisco@Tampa Bay San Francisco 8 65.60%
Buffalo@Jacksonville Buffalo 2 54.52%
Kansas City@Oakland Kansas City 6 63.93%
New York (NYJ)@Carolina @Carolina 16 80.67%
Green Bay@Dallas @Dallas 13 70.04%
Arizona@Tennessee Arizona 4 58.19%
New Orleans@St. Louis New Orleans 11 67.91%
Cincinnati@Pittsburgh Cincinnati 5 58.66%
Baltimore@Detroit @Detroit 10 67.85%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 94.4    
Likely range: 65 to 122    
Actual 72
Year-to-date 1299
 Posted by on December 16, 2013 at 10:02 pm

Did ESPN read WinThatPool? Evidence from College Bowl Mania

 College Pick 'Em, Confidence pool  Comments Off on Did ESPN read WinThatPool? Evidence from College Bowl Mania
Dec 152013
 

Judging by how ESPN revised its College Bowl Mania, perhaps the answer is YES.

If you pay attention to the distribution of fans’ picks on College Bowl confidence pool sites, it is obvious that a lot of entrants simply acquiesce to the order of games as they first encounter the slate of games. No matter which team people pick to win each game, a significant number of them don’t bother switching their confidence ranking from the default. As a result, the site’s initial confidence rank is the strongest determinant for the average fan confidence ranks on each game.

I wrote about this in 2010, and that the order chosen by ESPN was OPPOSITE the order a smart webmaster would have chosen. With 35 games, for several years Yahoo has listed its games in reverse chronological order, with the BCS Championship Game listed at 35 points, and the earliest game listed at 1 point. Assuming a bunch of lazy or brain-dead entrants who acquiesce to these default ranks, this makes for more excitement as the bowl season progresses for Yahoo, potentially making for the last game to have a great deal of leverage in determining the group winner. At the time, ESPN listed its games in chronological order, almost ensuring that nobody would need to visit their ESPN group’s page much after New Year’s Day because the eventual champion was already determined.

It looks like ESPN has wised up. Its 2013 College Bowl Mania has the BCS Championship Game listed with 35 points, just like Yahoo.

 Posted by on December 15, 2013 at 5:27 pm

2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 15

 2013, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Week 15
Dec 122013
 

12/12/13 9:15a PST – The Week 15 Win Probabilities, Confidence Ranks, Expected Points and Confidence Interval have been revised as of Thursday morning.

Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
San Diego@Denver @Denver 15 78.33%
Washington@Atlanta @Atlanta 12 69.61%
Chicago@Cleveland Chicago 1 52.96%
Houston@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 9 66.94%
New England@Miami New England 3 55.96%
Philadelphia@Minnesota Philadelphia 7 64.63%
Seattle@New York (NYG) Seattle 14 70.32%
San Francisco@Tampa Bay San Francisco 8 65.60%
Buffalo@Jacksonville Buffalo 2 54.52%
Kansas City@Oakland Kansas City 6 63.93%
New York (NYJ)@Carolina @Carolina 16 80.67%
Green Bay@Dallas @Dallas 13 70.04%
Arizona@Tennessee Arizona 4 58.19%
New Orleans@St. Louis New Orleans 11 67.91%
Cincinnati@Pittsburgh Cincinnati 5 58.66%
Baltimore@Detroit @Detroit 10 67.85%
Possible points: 136    
Expected: 94.4    
Likely range: 65 to 122    
       
       
 Posted by on December 12, 2013 at 9:15 am