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Super Bowl XLIX: 16 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on Super Bowl XLIX: 16 points
Feb 122015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
New England@Seattle New England 53.2% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
16 8.51  16 1,608
95% confidence interval* 0 to 16  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on February 12, 2015 at 4:59 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Super Bowl XLIX

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Super Bowl XLIX
Jan 272015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
New England@Seattle New England 53.2% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
16 8.51   1,592
95% confidence interval* 0 to 16  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 27, 2015 at 11:06 am

2014 NFL Conference Championship Round: 24 points

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Conference Championship Round: 24 points
Jan 182015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@New England @New England 69.7% 8
Green Bay@Seattle @Seattle 71.0% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
24 16.93  24 1,592
95% confidence interval* 0 to 24  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 18, 2015 at 8:54 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference Championship round

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference Championship round
Jan 132015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@New England @New England 69.7% 8
Green Bay@Seattle @Seattle 71.0% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
24 16.93   1,568
95% confidence interval* 0 to 24  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 13, 2015 at 1:00 pm

2014 NFL Divisional Playoff Round: 28 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Divisional Playoff Round: 28 points
Jan 112015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Baltimore@New England @New England 69.9% 8
Carolina@Seattle @Seattle 79.0% 16
Dallas@Green Bay @Green Bay 68.0% 4
Indianapolis@Denver @Denver 70.2% 12
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
40 29.37  28 1,568
95% confidence interval* 8 to 40  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 11, 2015 at 6:13 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional Playoff round

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional Playoff round
Jan 052015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Baltimore@New England @New England 69.9% 8
Carolina@Seattle @Seattle 79.0% 16
Dallas@Green Bay @Green Bay 68.0% 4
Indianapolis@Denver @Denver 70.2% 12
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
40 29.37   1,540
95% confidence interval* 8 to 40  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 5, 2015 at 5:03 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Wildcard round

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Wildcard round
Dec 292014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Arizona@Carolina @Carolina 63.0% 12
Baltimore@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.3% 4
Cincinnati@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 62.2% 8
Detroit@Dallas @Dallas 70.4% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
40 26.19   1,504
95% confidence interval* 4 to 40  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 29, 2014 at 10:29 am

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17
Dec 232014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Chicago@Minnesota @Minnesota 68.9% 8
Buffalo@New England @New England 69.1% 9
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 66.8% 6
New Orleans@Tampa Bay New Orleans 61.4% 4
Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 58.3% 2
Carolina@Atlanta @Atlanta 61.4% 5
Cleveland@Baltimore @Baltimore 75.2% 13
Dallas@Washington Dallas 69.4% 10
San Diego@Kansas City @Kansas City 57.5% 1
Jacksonville@Houston @Houston 76.9% 14
Indianapolis@Tennessee Indianapolis 69.9% 11
Detroit@Green Bay @Green Bay 71.9% 12
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 83.4% 15
Oakland@Denver @Denver 87.0% 16
Arizona@San Francisco @San Francisco 67.6% 7
Cincinnati@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.4% 3
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 99.75   1,390
95% confidence interval* 65 to 128  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 23, 2014 at 11:36 am

2014 NFL Week 16: 82 points

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 16: 82 points
Dec 222014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Tennessee@Jacksonville @Jacksonville 58.9% 3
Philadelphia@Washington Philadelphia 74.9% 14
San Diego@San Francisco @San Francisco 56.2% 1
Green Bay@Tampa Bay Green Bay 78.7% 16
Kansas City@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.4% 4
Atlanta@New Orleans @New Orleans 68.1% 10
New England@N.Y. Jets New England 78.5% 15
Minnesota@Miami @Miami 69.6% 11
Baltimore@Houston Baltimore 64.6% 8
Cleveland@Carolina @Carolina 61.5% 6
Detroit@Chicago Detroit 70.3% 12
N.Y. Giants@St. Louis @St. Louis 64.4% 7
Indianapolis@Dallas @Dallas 58.7% 2
Buffalo@Oakland Buffalo 67.6% 9
Seattle@Arizona Seattle 74.0% 13
Denver@Cincinnati Denver 59.9% 5
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 95.7  82 1,390
95% confidence interval* 60 to 126  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 22, 2014 at 10:52 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Bowl Season

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Bowl Season
Dec 162014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Nevada@UL Lafayette Nevada 52.57%
Utah State@Texas El Paso Utah State 74.58%
Utah@Colorado State Utah 58.93%
Western Michigan@Air Force @Air Force 53.85%
South Alabama@Bowling Green South Alabama 57.67%
Brigham Young@Memphis @Memphis 53.00%
Marshall@Northern Illinois Marshall 73.35%
Navy@San Diego State @San Diego State 57.67%
Central Michigan@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 59.77%
Fresno State@Rice @Rice 55.35%
Illinois@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 65.07%
Rutgers@North Carolina @North Carolina 57.88%
North Carolina State@Central Florida @Central Florida 55.13%
Cincinnati@Virginia Tech Cincinnati 57.67%
Arizona State@Duke Arizona State 68.58%
Miami@South Carolina Miami 57.67%
Boston College@Penn State Boston College 56.83%
Nebraska@Southern California @Southern California 66.84%
Texas A&M@West Virginia @West Virginia 58.93%
Oklahoma@Clemson Oklahoma 57.67%
Arkansas@Texas Arkansas 65.46%
Notre Dame@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 68.19%
Georgia@Louisville Georgia 67.03%
Maryland@Stanford @Stanford 81.68%
Mississippi@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 58.30%
Boise State@Arizona @Arizona 58.93%
Mississippi State@Georgia Tech Mississippi State 67.03%
Auburn@Wisconsin Auburn 66.45%
Michigan State@Baylor @Baylor 57.67%
Missouri@Minnesota Missouri 63.66%
Florida State@Oregon @Oregon 72.82%
Ohio State@Alabama @Alabama 72.82%
Houston@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 57.67%
Iowa@Tennessee @Tennessee 58.93%
Kansas State@UCLA Kansas State 52.57%
Washington@Oklahoma State Washington 63.66%
East Carolina@Florida @Florida 68.00%
Toledo@Arkansas State Toledo 57.67%

 

 Posted by on December 16, 2014 at 4:07 pm