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Jan 032014
 

1/4/14 4:50P PST: The percentages reported in the table below previously were incorrect. Corrected numbers appear below.

Also, the most likely set of picks of SF 16, CIN 12, PHI 4 and IND 8 previously was reported at a probability of over 18%; the correct percentage is under 14%.
After fitting possible confidence point allotments to the pick distribution information available on Yahoo, these are the probabilities that a random fan assigns confidence points to a given playoff team this weekend.

If you’re playing catch-up, you could be running out of chances to do so without taking too much risk. With a nearly 30% chance of winning, San Diego might not seem too tempting until you realize that whoever you’re trying to catch almost certainly will pick Cincinnati with 12 or 16 points. It’s understandable why the few who picked San Diego allotted only 8 or 4 points.

%Fans picked Team 16 12 8 4
64% SF 20.6% 16.6% 13.0% 13.8%
36% GB 3.4% 7.3% 7.9% 17.4%
89% CIN 48.7% 33.9% 5.2% 1.2%
11% SD 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.8%
51% PHI 9.5% 9.7% 9.7% 22.1%
49% NO 7.8% 10.6% 13.5% 17.1%
56% IND 6.3% 11.9% 26.3% 11.5%
44% KC 3.7% 10.1% 14.2% 16.0%

Something else: probabilities for the 384 individual pick combinations suggest that nearly 14% of all fans will pick SF 16, CIN 12, PHI 4, and IND 8. That’s right, 14%. The next highest probability was slightly more than 2 percentage points: GB 4, CIN 16, NO 8, and IND 12.

 Posted by on January 3, 2014 at 4:08 pm

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