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Jan 102014
 
%Fans Team 16 12 8 4 Avg. Conf.
88% SEA 36.7% 20.8% 18.6% 11.4% 11.8
13% NO 0.1% 2.1% 4.2% 6.1% 6.8
76% NE 6.6% 34.2% 17.4% 17.7% 9.6
24% IND 0.2% 3.6% 7.8% 12.4% 6.6
41% CAR 1.1% 6.7% 10.3% 22.7% 6.6
59% SF 2.6% 14.2% 16.5% 26.0% 7.6
91% DEN 52.4% 17.7% 20.9% 0.0% 13.4
9% SD 0.2% 0.6% 4.4% 3.7% 6.8

Strategy considerations:

Here’s the boring strategy: the pick set with the highest expected point total (DEN 16, SEA 12, NE 8, SF 4) also has the highest average rank. The next two strategies with the highest average rank are (SEA 16, DEN 12, NE 8, SF 4) and (NE 16, DEN 12, SEA 8, and SF 4).

If you’re behind by a lot, you’re running out of chances, but going with the favorites won’t cut it. Again SD looks tempting; SD has about a 1 in 4 Win Probability, but fewer than 10% of fans are picking SD. All other things being equal, ranking SD with 16 or 12 should give you that many more points than whomever you’re chasing, but if SD loses you’re nearly done. If you’re not so desperate, just give DEN only 4 points, which the table suggests almost nobody is doing. That way you still get something if DEN wins, but if they lose you haven’t spent 16 points on them.

 Posted by on January 10, 2014 at 3:50 pm