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March Madness pool entry 2014

 2014, March Madness  Comments Off on March Madness pool entry 2014
Mar 202014
 

Widget for identifying which team to pick as champion, based on the size of your pool
If you don’t see the widget below, download the workbook.

Use this widget to decide which team(s) to pick for your entry champion(s), then fill in the rest of your bracket(s) using the most likely bracket below.

Most likely bracket for 2014
march-madness-bracket-2014

Cumulative survival rates for all 2014 tournament teams
South Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-FinalChampionship
1Florida94.9%71.2%50.8%34.2%22.8%13.0%
16Albany5.1%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Colorado29.8%5.4%1.7%0.5%0.1%0.0%
9Pittsburgh70.2%22.7%11.7%5.4%2.5%0.9%
5VCU73.9%40.1%15.2%7.3%3.4%1.3%
12Stephen F. Austin26.1%8.0%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
4UCLA75.8%44.1%17.5%8.8%4.3%1.7%
13Tulsa24.2%7.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%
6Ohio St.68.5%39.5%18.7%7.7%3.7%1.4%
11Dayton31.5%12.5%3.8%1.0%0.3%0.1%
3Syracuse82.7%44.5%20.2%8.0%3.6%1.3%
14Western Michigan17.3%3.5%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
7New Mexico57.3%21.2%10.0%3.5%1.4%0.4%
10Stanford42.7%13.3%5.4%1.5%0.5%0.1%
2Kansas90.2%63.4%41.1%21.3%12.4%6.0%
15Eastern Kentucky9.8%2.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%

East Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-FinalChampionship
1Virginia95.7%72.1%46.3%28.9%15.3%7.5%
16Coastal Carolina4.3%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Memphis51.9%14.5%5.6%2.1%0.6%0.1%
9George Washington48.1%12.8%4.7%1.7%0.4%0.1%
5Cincinnati59.7%29.6%12.7%6.0%2.3%0.8%
12Harvard40.3%16.3%5.6%2.1%0.6%0.2%
4Michigan St.80.5%48.8%24.0%13.1%5.9%2.4%
13Delaware19.5%5.3%1.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%
6North Carolina58.8%31.0%13.6%5.6%2.1%0.7%
11Providence41.2%18.3%6.5%2.2%0.6%0.2%
3Iowa St.74.5%42.7%20.1%9.1%3.6%1.3%
14North Carolina Central25.5%8.0%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
7Connecticut63.4%26.6%14.0%5.9%2.2%0.7%
10Saint Joseph's36.6%11.2%4.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%
2Villanova91.0%60.7%39.2%21.3%10.5%4.7%
15Milwaukee9.0%1.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%

West Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-FinalChampionship
1Arizona95.6%69.4%54.5%39.2%23.9%15.4%
16Weber St.4.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Gonzaga49.2%14.7%8.5%4.2%1.6%0.7%
9Oklahoma St.50.8%15.5%9.1%4.6%1.8%0.7%
5Oklahoma65.7%33.9%9.8%4.3%1.4%0.5%
12North Dakota St.34.3%12.5%2.3%0.7%0.1%0.0%
4San Diego St.67.7%40.2%13.1%6.2%2.2%0.9%
13New Mexico St.32.3%13.5%2.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%
6Baylor61.6%24.7%11.2%3.6%1.1%0.4%
11Nebraska38.4%11.7%4.0%1.0%0.2%0.1%
3Creighton86.4%60.0%36.4%17.0%7.7%3.8%
14Louisiana Lafayette13.6%3.7%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%
7Oregon55.7%25.2%11.1%3.7%1.2%0.4%
10BYU44.3%17.7%6.9%2.0%0.5%0.2%
2Wisconsin81.8%52.0%28.5%12.4%5.2%2.4%
15American18.2%5.1%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%

Midwest Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-finalChampionship
1Wichita St.94.3%66.7%35.8%23.8%13.8%8.1%
16Cal Poly5.7%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Kentucky66.7%24.6%9.6%4.9%2.1%0.9%
9Kansas St.33.3%7.9%2.0%0.7%0.2%0.1%
5Saint Louis61.2%14.7%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.1%
12North Carolina St.38.8%6.7%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%
4Louisville87.1%73.0%45.6%32.8%20.8%13.4%
13Manhattan12.9%5.6%1.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%
6Massachusetts36.7%12.1%4.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%
11Tennessee63.3%28.3%14.9%4.9%1.9%0.7%
3Duke84.0%55.3%35.2%15.1%7.5%3.7%
14Mercer16.0%4.4%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%
7Texas54.1%21.0%7.5%1.8%0.5%0.1%
10Arizona St.45.9%16.2%5.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%
2Michigan91.3%61.5%31.1%11.3%4.8%2.1%
15Wofford8.7%1.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Win Probabilities are based on a composite of Pomeroy ratings and LRMC ratings. Any errors are mine.

 Posted by on March 20, 2014 at 10:35 am

Try the March Madness Fan Simulator widget to decide the champion in your pool entry

 basketball, March Madness  Comments Off on Try the March Madness Fan Simulator widget to decide the champion in your pool entry
Mar 192014
 

This is my perennial warning cautioning against going with the favorite: if you picked Florida as your champ, you probably already lost.

When you think probabilistically about your chance of winning a pool, with no skill your chance is 1/n, where n is the number of entries, including yours.

Given the traditional scoring of 1,2,4,8,16,32, the thinking goes that it behooves you to pick the champion, because that’s where the points are.

While that’s true, the problem with this thinking is you’re competing with all the other bandwagoners who also pick the same favorite. So your chance, with no skill, is no longer 1/n but 1/(1+Florida_picks)*Florida’s chance of winning it all.

Florida’s chance of winning it all ranges somewhere between 13% and 19%, but the percentage of ESPN and Yahoo pool entries that have Florida as the champ range between 29% and 37%.

Assuming Florida does win, whether you win the pool depends on how well you did in Rounds 1-5 versus the other 1/3 of entrants who also picked Florida.

Let’s say you’re in a pool with 24 other participants. Most likely, about 8 of them picked Florida. So your chance of winning is approximately 15%*1/9= 1.67%.

Consider instead (for a 24-person pool) picking Arizona, which has a similar Win Probability but only about 7% of entrants have picked them, or about 2 other entrants in this 24-person pool. Now your chance of winning is 15%*1/3 = 5%.

The math depends on your pool’s scoring, and the right way to do it is a full Monte Carlo simulation that you probably don’t have time for.

The March Madness Fan_Simulator widget might help. It will simulate the top 5 teams you should have picked as Champion given pools of different sizes. This is a scaled down model focused only on the Championship game, but for most pools it that’s good enough. Enter your pool size a few times to watch how the recommended teams change (or not).

 Posted by on March 19, 2014 at 5:45 pm