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Mar 202014
 

Widget for identifying which team to pick as champion, based on the size of your pool
If you don’t see the widget below, download the workbook.

Use this widget to decide which team(s) to pick for your entry champion(s), then fill in the rest of your bracket(s) using the most likely bracket below.

Most likely bracket for 2014
march-madness-bracket-2014

Cumulative survival rates for all 2014 tournament teams
South Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-FinalChampionship
1Florida94.9%71.2%50.8%34.2%22.8%13.0%
16Albany5.1%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Colorado29.8%5.4%1.7%0.5%0.1%0.0%
9Pittsburgh70.2%22.7%11.7%5.4%2.5%0.9%
5VCU73.9%40.1%15.2%7.3%3.4%1.3%
12Stephen F. Austin26.1%8.0%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
4UCLA75.8%44.1%17.5%8.8%4.3%1.7%
13Tulsa24.2%7.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%
6Ohio St.68.5%39.5%18.7%7.7%3.7%1.4%
11Dayton31.5%12.5%3.8%1.0%0.3%0.1%
3Syracuse82.7%44.5%20.2%8.0%3.6%1.3%
14Western Michigan17.3%3.5%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
7New Mexico57.3%21.2%10.0%3.5%1.4%0.4%
10Stanford42.7%13.3%5.4%1.5%0.5%0.1%
2Kansas90.2%63.4%41.1%21.3%12.4%6.0%
15Eastern Kentucky9.8%2.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%

East Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-FinalChampionship
1Virginia95.7%72.1%46.3%28.9%15.3%7.5%
16Coastal Carolina4.3%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Memphis51.9%14.5%5.6%2.1%0.6%0.1%
9George Washington48.1%12.8%4.7%1.7%0.4%0.1%
5Cincinnati59.7%29.6%12.7%6.0%2.3%0.8%
12Harvard40.3%16.3%5.6%2.1%0.6%0.2%
4Michigan St.80.5%48.8%24.0%13.1%5.9%2.4%
13Delaware19.5%5.3%1.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%
6North Carolina58.8%31.0%13.6%5.6%2.1%0.7%
11Providence41.2%18.3%6.5%2.2%0.6%0.2%
3Iowa St.74.5%42.7%20.1%9.1%3.6%1.3%
14North Carolina Central25.5%8.0%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
7Connecticut63.4%26.6%14.0%5.9%2.2%0.7%
10Saint Joseph's36.6%11.2%4.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%
2Villanova91.0%60.7%39.2%21.3%10.5%4.7%
15Milwaukee9.0%1.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%

West Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-FinalChampionship
1Arizona95.6%69.4%54.5%39.2%23.9%15.4%
16Weber St.4.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Gonzaga49.2%14.7%8.5%4.2%1.6%0.7%
9Oklahoma St.50.8%15.5%9.1%4.6%1.8%0.7%
5Oklahoma65.7%33.9%9.8%4.3%1.4%0.5%
12North Dakota St.34.3%12.5%2.3%0.7%0.1%0.0%
4San Diego St.67.7%40.2%13.1%6.2%2.2%0.9%
13New Mexico St.32.3%13.5%2.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%
6Baylor61.6%24.7%11.2%3.6%1.1%0.4%
11Nebraska38.4%11.7%4.0%1.0%0.2%0.1%
3Creighton86.4%60.0%36.4%17.0%7.7%3.8%
14Louisiana Lafayette13.6%3.7%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%
7Oregon55.7%25.2%11.1%3.7%1.2%0.4%
10BYU44.3%17.7%6.9%2.0%0.5%0.2%
2Wisconsin81.8%52.0%28.5%12.4%5.2%2.4%
15American18.2%5.1%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%

Midwest Region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Regional FinalSemi-finalChampionship
1Wichita St.94.3%66.7%35.8%23.8%13.8%8.1%
16Cal Poly5.7%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Kentucky66.7%24.6%9.6%4.9%2.1%0.9%
9Kansas St.33.3%7.9%2.0%0.7%0.2%0.1%
5Saint Louis61.2%14.7%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.1%
12North Carolina St.38.8%6.7%1.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%
4Louisville87.1%73.0%45.6%32.8%20.8%13.4%
13Manhattan12.9%5.6%1.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%
6Massachusetts36.7%12.1%4.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%
11Tennessee63.3%28.3%14.9%4.9%1.9%0.7%
3Duke84.0%55.3%35.2%15.1%7.5%3.7%
14Mercer16.0%4.4%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%
7Texas54.1%21.0%7.5%1.8%0.5%0.1%
10Arizona St.45.9%16.2%5.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%
2Michigan91.3%61.5%31.1%11.3%4.8%2.1%
15Wofford8.7%1.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Win Probabilities are based on a composite of Pomeroy ratings and LRMC ratings. Any errors are mine.

 Posted by on March 20, 2014 at 10:35 am