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2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 5

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 5
Sep 302014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Minnesota@Green Bay @Green Bay 75.97% 14
Buffalo@Detroit @Detroit 71.06% 12
Baltimore@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 60.34% 4
Houston@Dallas @Dallas 61.82% 6
Pittsburgh@Jacksonville Pittsburgh 69.84% 9
Chicago@Carolina @Carolina 57.43% 2
Cleveland@Tennessee @Tennessee 52.58% 1
St. Louis@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 70.31% 10
Tampa Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 79.17% 15
Atlanta@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 61.78% 5
Arizona@Denver @Denver 70.86% 11
N.Y. Jets@San Diego @San Diego 69.23% 7
Kansas City@San Francisco @San Francisco 69.60% 8
Cincinnati@New England @New England 57.43% 3
Seattle@Washington Seattle 71.97% 13
       
Possible Points 120  
Expected Points 84.53  
95% confidence interval* 52 to 112  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on September 30, 2014 at 9:13 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 6

 2014, College football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 6
Sep 302014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Florida Atlantic@Florida International Florida Atlantic 67.81%
Central Florida@Houston @Houston 57.93%
Arizona@Oregon @Oregon 93.31%
Louisville@Syracuse Louisville 57.04%
San Diego State@Fresno State @Fresno State 52.57%
Utah State@Brigham Young @Brigham Young 90.70%
Iowa State@Oklahoma State @Oklahoma State 86.36%
Texas A&M@Mississippi State @Mississippi State 54.28%
Southern Methodist@East Carolina @East Carolina 99.59%
Purdue@Illinois @Illinois 75.09%
Marshall@Old Dominion Marshall 87.22%
Southern Mississippi@Middle Tennessee @Middle Tennessee 87.39%
Florida@Tennessee @Tennessee 56.09%
Ohio State@Maryland Ohio State 80.21%
Ball State@Army @Army 56.41%
Virginia Tech@North Carolina Virginia Tech 56.19%
Eastern Michigan@Akron @Akron 92.33%
North Texas@Indiana @Indiana 80.14%
Massachusetts@Miami (Ohio) @Miami (Ohio) 58.93%
Tulsa@Colorado State @Colorado State 82.52%
Navy@Air Force Navy 61.11%
New Mexico@Texas-San Antonio @Texas-San Antonio 86.18%
Stanford@Notre Dame Stanford 56.09%
Oklahoma@Texas Christian Oklahoma 62.65%
Ohio@Central Michigan @Central Michigan 60.18%
Wake Forest@Florida State @Florida State 99.38%
Baylor@Texas Baylor 86.00%
Buffalo@Bowling Green @Bowling Green 64.16%
Wisconsin@Northwestern Wisconsin 73.71%
Alabama@Mississippi Alabama 65.85%
North Carolina State@Clemson @Clemson 82.73%
Vanderbilt@Georgia @Georgia 98.17%
Kansas@West Virginia @West Virginia 95.40%
Oregon State@Colorado Oregon State 68.29%
Kent State@Northern Illinois @Northern Illinois 94.02%
South Alabama@Appalachian State South Alabama 62.44%
Georgia State@UL Lafayette @UL Lafayette 85.82%
Idaho@Texas State @Texas State 82.52%
Texas Tech@Kansas State @Kansas State 63.94%
Texas El Paso@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 78.29%
Michigan@Rutgers @Rutgers 58.09%
UL Monroe@Arkansas State @Arkansas State 72.20%
Alabama-Birmingham@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 72.73%
Hawaii@Rice @Rice 66.44%
Memphis@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 61.42%
Toledo@Western Michigan Toledo 63.56%
Louisiana State@Auburn @Auburn 69.90%
Pittsburgh@Virginia @Virginia 64.46%
Miami@Georgia Tech Miami 54.17%
Arizona State@Southern California @Southern California 77.09%
South Carolina@Kentucky South Carolina 63.46%
Georgia Southern@New Mexico State Georgia Southern 86.36%
UNLV@San Jose State @San Jose State 73.35%
Nebraska@Michigan State @Michigan State 71.74%
California@Washington State @Washington State 60.39%
Boise State@Nevada Boise State 57.04%
Utah@UCLA @UCLA 79.92%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on September 30, 2014 at 8:45 am

2014 NFL Week 4: 56 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 4: 56 points
Sep 292014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
N.Y. Giants@Washington @Washington 60.06% 7
Tampa Bay@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 71.81% 11
Detroit@N.Y. Jets Detroit 54.53% 2
Miami@Oakland Miami 62.40% 9
Green Bay@Chicago @Chicago 52.95% 1
Buffalo@Houston @Houston 58.96% 6
Carolina@Baltimore @Baltimore 58.88% 4
Tennessee@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 72.31% 12
Jacksonville@San Diego @San Diego 84.63% 13
Atlanta@Minnesota Atlanta 58.04% 3
Philadelphia@San Francisco @San Francisco 66.34% 10
New Orleans@Dallas New Orleans 58.96% 5
New England@Kansas City New England 60.70% 8
Possible Points 91  Actual  YTD
Expected Points 61.09  56  324
95% confidence interval* 34 to 84  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on September 29, 2014 at 8:04 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 5

 2014, College football, College Pick 'Em, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 5
Sep 232014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Texas Tech@Oklahoma State @Oklahoma State 81.53%
Appalachian State@Georgia Southern @Georgia Southern 87.17%
UCLA@Arizona State UCLA 62.44%
Fresno State@New Mexico Fresno State 64.06%
Middle Tennessee@Old Dominion @Old Dominion 57.46%
Texas Christian@Southern Methodist Texas Christian 98.07%
Iowa@Purdue Iowa 73.88%
South Florida@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 98.51%
Texas El Paso@Kansas State @Kansas State 95.33%
Tennessee@Georgia @Georgia 86.12%
Vanderbilt@Kentucky @Kentucky 86.36%
Wyoming@Michigan State @Michigan State 97.70%
Northwestern@Penn State @Penn State 75.43%
Tulane@Rutgers @Rutgers 77.58%
Colorado State@Boston College @Boston College 67.42%
Western Michigan@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 91.56%
Army@Yale Army 80.81%
Akron@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 90.06%
Maryland@Indiana @Indiana 61.42%
Eastern Illinois@Ohio Eastern Illinois 53.85%
Bowling Green@Massachusetts Bowling Green 61.42%
Western Kentucky@Navy @Navy 67.42%
Miami (Ohio)@Buffalo @Buffalo 62.65%
Florida International@Alabama-Birmingham @Alabama-Birmingham 85.88%
Kent State@Virginia @Virginia 95.88%
Minnesota@Michigan @Michigan 77.25%
Florida State@North Carolina State Florida State 89.18%
Wake Forest@Louisville @Louisville 91.39%
Arkansas@Texas A&M @Texas A&M 70.82%
Temple@Connecticut Temple 61.63%
Louisiana Tech@Auburn @Auburn 98.26%
Texas@Kansas Texas 81.25%
Colorado@California @California 80.66%
Stanford@Washington Stanford 68.95%
Texas-San Antonio@Florida Atlantic Texas-San Antonio 62.65%
South Alabama@Idaho South Alabama 63.25%
Cincinnati@Ohio State @Ohio State 84.26%
Central Michigan@Toledo @Toledo 82.66%
Missouri@South Carolina @South Carolina 63.46%
North Carolina@Clemson @Clemson 82.24%
Boise State@Air Force Boise State 79.77%
Troy@UL Monroe @UL Monroe 80.07%
Rice@Southern Mississippi Rice 73.18%
Duke@Miami @Miami 67.42%
Memphis@Mississippi @Mississippi 89.28%
New Mexico State@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 99.71%
Washington State@Utah @Utah 79.15%
Texas State@Tulsa @Tulsa 61.42%
Baylor@Iowa State Baylor 91.39%
UNLV@San Diego State @San Diego State 84.64%
Notre Dame@Syracuse Notre Dame 78.68%
Illinois@Nebraska @Nebraska 90.06%
Oregon State@Southern California @Southern California 72.29%
Nevada@San Jose State Nevada 62.65%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on September 23, 2014 at 1:48 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 4

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 4
Sep 232014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
N.Y. Giants@Washington @Washington 60.06% 7
Tampa Bay@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 71.81% 11
Detroit@N.Y. Jets Detroit 54.53% 2
Miami@Oakland Miami 62.40% 9
Green Bay@Chicago @Chicago 52.95% 1
Buffalo@Houston @Houston 58.96% 6
Carolina@Baltimore @Baltimore 58.88% 4
Tennessee@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 72.31% 12
Jacksonville@San Diego @San Diego 84.63% 13
Atlanta@Minnesota Atlanta 58.04% 3
Philadelphia@San Francisco @San Francisco 66.34% 10
New Orleans@Dallas New Orleans 58.96% 5
New England@Kansas City New England 60.70% 8
Possible Points 91  
Expected Points 61.09  
95% confidence interval* 34 to 84  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on September 23, 2014 at 7:54 am

2014 NFL Week 3: 97 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 3: 97 points
Sep 212014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Tampa Bay@Atlanta @Atlanta 68.75% 11
Baltimore@Cleveland Baltimore 55.94% 3
Green Bay@Detroit @Detroit 53.76% 1
Tennessee@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 69.44% 13
Oakland@New England @New England 86.57% 16
Indianapolis@Jacksonville Indianapolis 69.64% 14
San Diego@Buffalo @Buffalo 56.36% 5
Dallas@St. Louis Dallas 55.24% 2
Washington@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 69.20% 12
Minnesota@New Orleans @New Orleans 76.82% 15
Houston@N.Y. Giants Houston 55.99% 4
San Francisco@Arizona San Francisco 58.14% 7
Kansas City@Miami @Miami 63.61% 9
Denver@Seattle @Seattle 63.98% 10
Pittsburgh@Carolina @Carolina 59.67% 8
Chicago@N.Y. Jets @N.Y. Jets 56.73% 6
Possible Points 136  Actual  YTD
Expected Points 92.77  97  268
95% confidence interval* 57 to 124  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on September 21, 2014 at 8:33 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 3

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 3
Sep 162014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Tampa Bay@Atlanta @Atlanta 68.75% 11
Baltimore@Cleveland Baltimore 55.94% 3
Green Bay@Detroit @Detroit 53.76% 1
Tennessee@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 69.44% 13
Oakland@New England @New England 86.57% 16
Indianapolis@Jacksonville Indianapolis 69.64% 14
San Diego@Buffalo @Buffalo 56.36% 5
Dallas@St. Louis Dallas 55.24% 2
Washington@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 69.20% 12
Minnesota@New Orleans @New Orleans 76.82% 15
Houston@N.Y. Giants Houston 55.99% 4
San Francisco@Arizona San Francisco 58.14% 7
Kansas City@Miami @Miami 63.61% 9
Denver@Seattle @Seattle 63.98% 10
Pittsburgh@Carolina @Carolina 59.67% 8
Chicago@N.Y. Jets @N.Y. Jets 56.73% 6
Possible Points 136  
Expected Points 92.77  
95% confidence interval* 57 to 124  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on September 16, 2014 at 9:25 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 4

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 4
Sep 162014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Auburn@Kansas State Auburn 72.14%
Connecticut@South Florida @South Florida 55.13%
Bowling Green@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 95.63%
Southern Illinois@Purdue Southern Illinois 64.08%
Georgia Tech@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 69.48%
Troy@Georgia @Georgia 99.51%
Western Illinois@Northwestern @Northwestern 87.35%
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State @Michigan State 99.83%
Old Dominion@Rice @Rice 69.71%
Iowa@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 65.07%
Tulane@Duke @Duke 86.36%
Maryland@Syracuse @Syracuse 52.57%
Delaware State@Temple @Temple 95.62%
Maine@Boston College @Boston College 80.21%
Marshall@Akron Marshall 74.06%
Hawaii@Colorado @Colorado 67.42%
Utah@Michigan @Michigan 63.86%
Florida@Alabama @Alabama 83.17%
North Carolina@East Carolina @East Carolina 55.90%
Virginia@Brigham Young @Brigham Young 83.34%
Nicholls State@North Texas @North Texas 87.97%
Norfolk State@Buffalo @Buffalo 83.03%
Texas A&M@Southern Methodist Texas A&M 98.33%
Rutgers@Navy @Navy 65.07%
Army@Wake Forest Army 56.41%
Central Michigan@Kansas @Kansas 61.42%
Louisville@Florida International Louisville 95.92%
Florida Atlantic@Wyoming @Wyoming 60.18%
Indiana@Missouri @Missouri 80.81%
Texas State@Illinois @Illinois 82.02%
Massachusetts@Penn State @Penn State 95.63%
San Jose State@Minnesota @Minnesota 68.58%
Georgia State@Washington @Washington 98.80%
Bethune Cookman@Central Florida @Central Florida 88.80%
Presbyterian@North Carolina State @North Carolina State 98.19%
Appalachian State@Southern Mississippi @Southern Mississippi 59.43%
Ball State@Toledo @Toledo 75.09%
Utah State@Arkansas State @Arkansas State 53.85%
Northwestern State@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 74.43%
Murray State@Western Michigan @Western Michigan 52.21%
Idaho@Ohio @Ohio 80.81%
Middle Tennessee@Memphis @Memphis 77.09%
Mississippi State@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 74.06%
Miami (Ohio)@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 96.46%
Northern Illinois@Arkansas @Arkansas 82.51%
Oklahoma@West Virginia Oklahoma 68.80%
Georgia Southern@South Alabama @South Alabama 56.41%
South Carolina@Vanderbilt South Carolina 92.11%
New Mexico@New Mexico State New Mexico 62.65%
Miami@Nebraska @Nebraska 67.42%
UNLV@Houston @Houston 91.23%
Clemson@Florida State @Florida State 90.15%
Southern Utah@Fresno State @Fresno State 78.00%
California@Arizona @Arizona 75.09%
UL Lafayette@Boise State @Boise State 84.90%
Oregon@Washington State Oregon 93.84%
San Diego State@Oregon State @Oregon State 73.85%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on September 16, 2014 at 8:37 am

2014 NFL Week 2: 77 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 2: 77 points
Sep 152014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Pittsburgh@Baltimore @Baltimore 58.00% 3
New Orleans@Cleveland New Orleans 67.90% 12
Atlanta@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 64.60% 11
New England@Minnesota New England 60.60% 8
Detroit@Carolina @Carolina 58.00% 4
Miami@Buffalo @Buffalo 51.00% 1
Jacksonville@Washington @Washington 68.20% 13
Arizona@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 55.20% 2
Dallas@Tennessee @Tennessee 59.80% 7
Seattle@San Diego Seattle 64.10% 9
St. Louis@Tampa Bay @Tampa Bay 64.60% 10
Kansas City@Denver @Denver 82.90% 16
Houston@Oakland Houston 58.30% 6
N.Y. Jets@Green Bay @Green Bay 73.80% 15
Chicago@San Francisco @San Francisco 70.10% 14
Philadelphia@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 58.30% 5
Possible Points 136  Actual  YTD
Expected Points 91.62  77  171
95% confidence interval* 59 to 125  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on September 15, 2014 at 9:52 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 2

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 2
Sep 092014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Pittsburgh@Baltimore @Baltimore 58.00% 3
New Orleans@Cleveland New Orleans 67.90% 12
Atlanta@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 64.60% 11
New England@Minnesota New England 60.60% 8
Detroit@Carolina @Carolina 58.00% 4
Miami@Buffalo @Buffalo 51.00% 1
Jacksonville@Washington @Washington 68.20% 13
Arizona@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 55.20% 2
Dallas@Tennessee @Tennessee 59.80% 7
Seattle@San Diego Seattle 64.10% 9
St. Louis@Tampa Bay @Tampa Bay 64.60% 10
Kansas City@Denver @Denver 82.90% 16
Houston@Oakland Houston 58.30% 6
N.Y. Jets@Green Bay @Green Bay 73.80% 15
Chicago@San Francisco @San Francisco 70.10% 14
Philadelphia@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 58.30% 5
Possible Points 136  
Expected Points 91.62  
95% confidence interval* 59 to 125  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on September 9, 2014 at 10:36 am