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2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 9

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Office pool, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 9
Oct 292014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Oakland@Seattle @Seattle 87.40% 13
Jacksonville@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 80.29% 12
St. Louis@San Francisco @San Francisco 77.76% 11
N.Y. Jets@Kansas City @Kansas City 77.20% 10
Tampa Bay@Cleveland @Cleveland 69.41% 9
Arizona@Dallas @Dallas 63.24% 8
Indianapolis@N.Y. Giants Indianapolis 59.65% 7
Denver@New England Denver 59.41% 6
Washington@Minnesota @Minnesota 58.19% 5
New Orleans@Carolina New Orleans 57.94% 4
Philadelphia@Houston Philadelphia 56.22% 3
San Diego@Miami @Miami 54.00% 2
Baltimore@Pittsburgh Baltimore 51.00% 1
       
       
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
91 64.82   695
95% confidence interval* 39 to 86  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on October 29, 2014 at 8:20 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 10

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 10
Oct 282014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Florida State@Louisville Florida State 59.76%
Troy@Georgia Southern @Georgia Southern 95.31%
Cincinnati@Tulane Cincinnati 60.80%
Tulsa@Memphis @Memphis 94.05%
Air Force@Army Air Force 58.93%
Rice@Florida International Rice 65.26%
Northwestern@Iowa @Iowa 60.18%
Oklahoma@Iowa State Oklahoma 85.52%
Wisconsin@Rutgers Wisconsin 76.10%
Maryland@Penn State @Penn State 58.93%
East Carolina@Temple East Carolina 68.19%
Duke@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.77%
Central Florida@Connecticut Central Florida 77.58%
UL Monroe@Texas A&M @Texas A&M 98.25%
Boston College@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 57.67%
North Carolina@Miami @Miami 86.36%
Washington@Colorado Washington 60.60%
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 85.65%
Western Michigan@Miami (Ohio) Western Michigan 66.45%
Western Kentucky@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 67.23%
North Carolina State@Syracuse @Syracuse 58.51%
Georgia State@Appalachian State @Appalachian State 74.92%
Virginia@Georgia Tech @Georgia Tech 58.93%
Texas Christian@West Virginia Texas Christian 64.06%
Brigham Young@Middle Tennessee Brigham Young 58.93%
Florida@Georgia @Georgia 80.06%
Indiana@Michigan @Michigan 67.42%
Purdue@Nebraska @Nebraska 93.53%
Kansas@Baylor @Baylor 99.00%
Texas State@New Mexico State Texas State 68.77%
Kentucky@Missouri @Missouri 66.05%
Houston@South Florida Houston 73.53%
Southern California@Washington State Southern California 66.84%
Arkansas State@Idaho Arkansas State 82.52%
South Alabama@UL Lafayette @UL Lafayette 67.23%
New Mexico@UNLV @UNLV 52.57%
Old Dominion@Vanderbilt @Vanderbilt 68.58%
UAB@Florida Atlantic UAB 74.37%
Colorado State@San Jose State Colorado State 67.42%
Auburn@Mississippi @Mississippi 55.56%
Arkansas@Mississippi State @Mississippi State 75.09%
Texas@Texas Tech Texas 73.60%
Stanford@Oregon @Oregon 69.13%
Tennessee@South Carolina @South Carolina 67.42%
Southern Mississippi@Texas El Paso @Texas El Paso 67.42%
Illinois@Ohio State @Ohio State 96.62%
Oklahoma State@Kansas State @Kansas State 81.96%
Notre Dame@Navy Notre Dame 81.96%
Arizona@UCLA @UCLA 66.64%
San Diego State@Nevada @Nevada 58.93%
California@Oregon State @Oregon State 57.46%
Wyoming@Fresno State @Fresno State 77.58%
Utah State@Hawaii Utah State 57.67%
Utah@Arizona State @Arizona State 63.46%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on October 28, 2014 at 12:08 pm

2014 NFL Week 8: 87 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 8: 87 points
Oct 282014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
San Diego@Denver @Denver 71.14% 14
Detroit@Atlanta Detroit 61.34% 8
Miami@Jacksonville Miami 65.12% 10
Chicago@New England @New England 68.96% 11
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 53.89% 3
Buffalo@N.Y. Jets @N.Y. Jets 58.92% 6
St. Louis@Kansas City @Kansas City 68.97% 12
Houston@Tennessee Houston 53.74% 2
Seattle@Carolina Seattle 63.95% 9
Minnesota@Tampa Bay @Tampa Bay 58.44% 5
Philadelphia@Arizona @Arizona 57.45% 4
Indianapolis@Pittsburgh Indianapolis 59.51% 7
Oakland@Cleveland @Cleveland 70.29% 13
Green Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 53.59% 1
Washington@Dallas @Dallas 76.21% 15
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 79.72 87  695
95% confidence interval* 46 to 109  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on October 28, 2014 at 10:14 am

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 8

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 8
Oct 212014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
San Diego@Denver @Denver 71.14% 14
Detroit@Atlanta Detroit 61.34% 8
Miami@Jacksonville Miami 65.12% 10
Chicago@New England @New England 68.96% 11
Baltimore@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 53.89% 3
Buffalo@N.Y. Jets @N.Y. Jets 58.92% 6
St. Louis@Kansas City @Kansas City 68.97% 12
Houston@Tennessee Houston 53.74% 2
Seattle@Carolina Seattle 63.95% 9
Minnesota@Tampa Bay @Tampa Bay 58.44% 5
Philadelphia@Arizona @Arizona 57.45% 4
Indianapolis@Pittsburgh Indianapolis 59.51% 7
Oakland@Cleveland @Cleveland 70.29% 13
Green Bay@New Orleans @New Orleans 53.59% 1
Washington@Dallas @Dallas 76.21% 15
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 79.72   608
95% confidence interval* 46 to 109  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on October 21, 2014 at 8:54 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 9

 2014, College football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 9
Oct 212014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Arkansas State@UL Lafayette Arkansas State 56.62%
Connecticut@East Carolina @East Carolina 96.33%
Miami@Virginia Tech Miami 57.67%
South Florida@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 76.43%
Troy@South Alabama @South Alabama 82.10%
Brigham Young@Boise State @Boise State 66.25%
Oregon@California Oregon 88.68%
Texas@Kansas State @Kansas State 74.06%
Memphis@Southern Methodist Memphis 93.18%
Minnesota@Illinois Minnesota 67.23%
Maryland@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 77.25%
Alabama-Birmingham@Arkansas @Arkansas 92.89%
Rutgers@Nebraska @Nebraska 86.82%
North Carolina@Virginia @Virginia 67.23%
North Texas@Rice @Rice 82.52%
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 90.24%
San Jose State@Navy @Navy 71.93%
Akron@Ball State Akron 53.64%
Texas State@UL Monroe @UL Monroe 58.09%
UCLA@Colorado UCLA 80.22%
Georgia Southern@Georgia State Georgia Southern 85.26%
Massachusetts@Toledo @Toledo 83.20%
Ohio@Western Michigan @Western Michigan 74.06%
Kent State@Miami (Ohio) @Miami (Ohio) 67.42%
Mississippi State@Kentucky Mississippi State 81.10%
Michigan@Michigan State @Michigan State 86.59%
Oregon State@Stanford @Stanford 80.81%
Texas Tech@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 92.89%
Louisiana Tech@Southern Mississippi Louisiana Tech 73.00%
West Virginia@Oklahoma State @Oklahoma State 52.57%
Georgia Tech@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 58.93%
Central Michigan@Buffalo Central Michigan 61.01%
Florida Atlantic@Marshall @Marshall 96.41%
Boston College@Wake Forest Boston College 78.25%
UNLV@Utah State @Utah State 86.36%
Vanderbilt@Missouri @Missouri 90.96%
Old Dominion@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 75.43%
Temple@Central Florida @Central Florida 71.74%
Arizona@Washington State Arizona 56.83%
Texas El Paso@Texas-San Antonio @Texas-San Antonio 74.40%
Syracuse@Clemson @Clemson 82.10%
Wyoming@Colorado State @Colorado State 88.87%
South Carolina@Auburn @Auburn 87.60%
Alabama@Tennessee Alabama 86.82%
Mississippi@Louisiana State Mississippi 59.56%
Ohio State@Penn State Ohio State 80.21%
Southern California@Utah Southern California 51.50%
Arizona State@Washington Arizona State 68.25%
Nevada@Hawaii Nevada 60.18%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on October 21, 2014 at 8:39 am

2014 NFL Week 7: 88 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 7: 88 points
Oct 202014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
N.Y. Jets@New England @New England 77.20% 15
Miami@Chicago @Chicago 60.37% 4
New Orleans@Detroit @Detroit 58.43% 1
Minnesota@Buffalo @Buffalo 61.34% 6
Carolina@Green Bay @Green Bay 70.28% 14
Atlanta@Baltimore @Baltimore 70.06% 13
Tennessee@Washington @Washington 64.19% 8
Seattle@St. Louis Seattle 69.62% 12
Cincinnati@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 59.40% 2
Cleveland@Jacksonville Cleveland 66.49% 9
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 61.82% 7
N.Y. Giants@Dallas @Dallas 66.49% 10
Arizona@Oakland Arizona 60.61% 5
San Francisco@Denver @Denver 68.97% 11
Houston@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 60.13% 3
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 81.27  88 608
95% confidence interval* 45 to 109  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on October 20, 2014 at 9:50 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 7

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 7
Oct 142014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
N.Y. Jets@New England @New England 77.20% 15
Miami@Chicago @Chicago 60.37% 4
New Orleans@Detroit @Detroit 58.43% 1
Minnesota@Buffalo @Buffalo 61.34% 6
Carolina@Green Bay @Green Bay 70.28% 14
Atlanta@Baltimore @Baltimore 70.06% 13
Tennessee@Washington @Washington 64.19% 8
Seattle@St. Louis Seattle 69.62% 12
Cincinnati@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 59.40% 2
Cleveland@Jacksonville Cleveland 66.49% 9
Kansas City@San Diego @San Diego 61.82% 7
N.Y. Giants@Dallas @Dallas 66.49% 10
Arizona@Oakland Arizona 60.61% 5
San Francisco@Denver @Denver 68.97% 11
Houston@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 60.13% 3
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 81.27 520
95% confidence interval* 45 to 109  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on October 14, 2014 at 8:26 am

2014 NFL Week 6: 89 points

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 6: 89 points
Oct 142014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@Houston Indianapolis 58.09% 4
Carolina@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 70.79% 12
Pittsburgh@Cleveland @Cleveland 55.66% 1
New England@Buffalo New England 58.97% 6
Green Bay@Miami Green Bay 59.79% 8
Jacksonville@Tennessee @Tennessee 67.39% 11
Baltimore@Tampa Bay Baltimore 59.22% 7
Detroit@Minnesota Detroit 55.98% 2
Denver@N.Y. Jets Denver 74.80% 15
San Diego@Oakland San Diego 70.81% 13
Chicago@Atlanta @Atlanta 58.96% 5
Dallas@Seattle @Seattle 73.87% 14
Washington@Arizona @Arizona 60.35% 10
N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 57.41% 3
San Francisco@St. Louis San Francisco 59.84% 9
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 79.23  89 520
95% confidence interval* 45 to 109  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on October 14, 2014 at 8:04 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 8

 2014, College football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 8
Oct 132014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
UL Lafayette@Texas State @Texas State 55.98%
Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 55.34%
Utah@Oregon State Utah 56.83%
Fresno State@Boise State @Boise State 86.36%
Temple@Houston @Houston 67.81%
Texas-San Antonio@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 69.46%
Furman@South Carolina @South Carolina 97.39%
Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 65.65%
Purdue@Minnesota @Minnesota 79.46%
Iowa@Maryland @Maryland 62.44%
Kansas State@Oklahoma @Oklahoma 72.03%
South Florida@Tulsa South Florida 54.49%
Syracuse@Wake Forest Syracuse 61.21%
Tulane@Central Florida @Central Florida 90.15%
Baylor@West Virginia Baylor 71.19%
Virginia@Duke @Duke 57.25%
Akron@Ohio Akron 62.65%
Western Michigan@Bowling Green @Bowling Green 56.41%
Appalachian State@Troy @Troy 67.81%
Eastern Michigan@Massachusetts @Massachusetts 84.11%
Texas A&M@Alabama @Alabama 77.41%
New Mexico@Air Force @Air Force 76.43%
UCLA@California UCLA 67.81%
North Carolina State@Louisville @Louisville 86.24%
Ball State@Central Michigan @Central Michigan 71.37%
Alabama-Birmingham@Middle Tennessee Alabama-Birmingham 52.79%
Cincinnati@Southern Methodist Cincinnati 82.23%
Kansas@Texas Tech @Texas Tech 82.52%
Clemson@Boston College Clemson 67.03%
Michigan State@Indiana Michigan State 82.35%
Rutgers@Ohio State @Ohio State 89.48%
Army@Kent State Army 65.06%
San Jose State@Wyoming San Jose State 53.64%
Georgia@Arkansas Georgia 58.72%
Oklahoma State@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 71.93%
Miami (Ohio)@Northern Illinois @Northern Illinois 79.92%
New Mexico State@Idaho @Idaho 60.80%
Colorado@Southern California @Southern California 89.67%
Marshall@Florida International Marshall 92.12%
Utah State@Colorado State @Colorado State 63.46%
Southern Mississippi@North Texas @North Texas 76.60%
Missouri@Florida @Florida 64.66%
Tennessee@Mississippi @Mississippi 86.12%
Georgia Tech@North Carolina Georgia Tech 56.41%
Georgia State@South Alabama @South Alabama 86.59%
Nebraska@Northwestern Nebraska 67.23%
Kentucky@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 73.00%
Washington@Oregon @Oregon 91.22%
Notre Dame@Florida State @Florida State 76.08%
Iowa State@Texas @Texas 78.53%
Nevada@Brigham Young @Brigham Young 74.06%
Hawaii@San Diego State @San Diego State 72.82%
Stanford@Arizona State Stanford 59.35%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on October 13, 2014 at 2:59 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 6

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 6
Oct 072014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@Houston Indianapolis 58.09% 4
Carolina@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 70.79% 12
Pittsburgh@Cleveland @Cleveland 55.66% 1
New England@Buffalo New England 58.97% 6
Green Bay@Miami Green Bay 59.79% 8
Jacksonville@Tennessee @Tennessee 67.39% 11
Baltimore@Tampa Bay Baltimore 59.22% 7
Detroit@Minnesota Detroit 55.98% 2
Denver@N.Y. Jets Denver 74.80% 15
San Diego@Oakland San Diego 70.81% 13
Chicago@Atlanta @Atlanta 58.96% 5
Dallas@Seattle @Seattle 73.87% 14
Washington@Arizona @Arizona 60.35% 10
N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 57.41% 3
San Francisco@St. Louis San Francisco 59.84% 9
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 79.23 431
95% confidence interval* 45 to 109  

*Prior to 2014 the “Likely range” reflected a 90% confidence interval. Beginning in 2014 it reflects a 95% confidence interval.

 Posted by on October 7, 2014 at 8:25 am