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2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 13

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 13
Nov 242014
 

NB: Table updated Nov. 25, 2014, 5:50a PST.

Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Chicago@Detroit @Detroit 69.8% 14
Philadelphia@Dallas @Dallas 58.6% 7
Seattle@San Francisco @San Francisco 52.5% 1
Oakland@St. Louis @St. Louis 69.9% 15
New Orleans@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 58.8% 9
Cincinnati@Tampa Bay Cincinnati 61.4% 10
Carolina@Minnesota @Minnesota 57.2% 4
Washington@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 76.7% 16
Tennessee@Houston @Houston 67.8% 13
Cleveland@Buffalo @Buffalo 54.8% 2
N.Y. Giants@Jacksonville N.Y. Giants 58.0% 6
San Diego@Baltimore @Baltimore 63.2% 11
Arizona@Atlanta Arizona 57.7% 5
New England@Green Bay @Green Bay 58.8% 8
Denver@Kansas City Denver 55.5% 3
Miami@N.Y. Jets Miami 63.6% 12
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 88.1   992
95% confidence interval* 51 to 121  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on November 24, 2014 at 11:03 pm

2014 NFL Week 12: 102 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 12: 102 points
Nov 242014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Kansas City@Oakland Kansas City 70.9% 11
Cincinnati@Houston @Houston 54.2% 1
N.Y. Jets@Buffalo @Buffalo 63.2% 5
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 85.1% 15
Tampa Bay@Chicago @Chicago 67.8% 7
Cleveland@Atlanta @Atlanta 59.4% 2
Tennessee@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 80.1% 14
Green Bay@Minnesota Green Bay 77.0% 13
Detroit@New England @New England 70.3% 9
St. Louis@San Diego @San Diego 66.0% 6
Arizona@Seattle @Seattle 68.5% 8
Washington@San Francisco @San Francisco 74.2% 12
Miami@Denver @Denver 70.9% 10
Dallas@N.Y. Giants Dallas 59.7% 3
Baltimore@New Orleans @New Orleans 60.6% 4
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 87.41  102 995
95% confidence interval* 56 to 114  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on November 24, 2014 at 10:53 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 14

 2014, College football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 14
Nov 242014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Ohio@Miami-Ohio Ohio 54.62%
TCU@Texas TCU 66.25%
LSU@Texas A&M LSU 57.17%
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan @Western Michigan 66.01%
Central Florida(UCF)@South Florida Central Florida(UCF) 78.06%
Houston@SMU Houston 92.21%
Western Kentucky@Marshall @Marshall 91.23%
Nebraska@Iowa @Iowa 53.85%
Toledo@Eastern Michigan Toledo 93.11%
Akron@Kent State Akron 61.42%
Buffalo@Massachusetts Buffalo 55.13%
Ball State@Bowling Green @Bowling Green 70.60%
Arkansas@Missouri Arkansas 71.29%
Navy@South Alabama Navy 73.00%
Arizona State@Arizona Arizona State 59.93%
Stanford@UCLA @UCLA 61.42%
Colorado State@Air Force Colorado State 68.11%
Virginia@Virginia Tech Virginia 55.13%
East Carolina@Tulsa East Carolina 86.36%
South Carolina@Clemson @Clemson 61.42%
Old Dominion@Florida Atlantic @Florida Atlantic 60.18%
Cincinnati@Temple Cincinnati 63.86%
North Texas@Texas-San Antonio @Texas-San Antonio 63.62%
Rice@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 66.25%
Georgia Tech@Georgia @Georgia 79.55%
West Virginia@Iowa State West Virginia 89.14%
Illinois@Northwestern @Northwestern 70.83%
Michigan@Ohio State @Ohio State 90.15%
Kentucky@Louisville @Louisville 81.68%
Purdue@Indiana @Indiana 57.67%
Syracuse@Boston College @Boston College 76.10%
Louisiana-Lafayette@Troy Louisiana-Lafayette 76.10%
NC State@North Carolina @North Carolina 69.71%
Utah@Colorado Utah 71.93%
Idaho@Appalachian State @Appalachian State 86.36%
Texas State@Georgia State Texas State 80.81%
Wyoming@New Mexico @New Mexico 61.42%
New Mexico State@Arkansas State @Arkansas State 92.02%
San Jose State@San Diego State @San Diego State 63.53%
UAB@Southern Miss UAB 59.68%
Minnesota@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 80.45%
Baylor@Texas Tech Baylor 94.15%
Florida@Florida State @Florida State 73.21%
Rutgers@Maryland @Maryland 71.93%
Mississippi State@Mississippi Mississippi State 52.57%
Michigan State@Penn State Michigan State 80.81%
Notre Dame@Southern California @Southern California 67.65%
Tennessee@Vanderbilt Tennessee 86.36%
Kansas@Kansas State @Kansas State 96.09%
Connecticut@Memphis @Memphis 90.70%
BYU@California @California 60.43%
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia Southern @Georgia Southern 81.68%
Wake Forest@Duke @Duke 87.72%
Hawai’i@Fresno State @Fresno State 76.10%
Middle Tennessee@UTEP @UTEP 60.18%
Pittsburgh@Miami-Florida @Miami-Florida 57.85%
Auburn@Alabama @Alabama 73.00%
Oregon@Oregon State Oregon 90.37%
Utah State@Boise State @Boise State 73.43%
Nevada@UNLV Nevada 73.00%
Washington@Washington State Washington 60.18%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on November 24, 2014 at 10:03 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 13

 2014, College football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 13
Nov 182014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Massachusetts@Akron @Akron 68.19%
Northern Illinois@Ohio Northern Illinois 56.83%
Bowling Green@Toledo @Toledo 54.78%
Kent State@Buffalo @Buffalo 67.42%
Kansas State@West Virginia @West Virginia 56.41%
North Carolina@Duke @Duke 65.46%
Arkansas State@Texas State Arkansas State 63.65%
Texas El Paso@Rice @Rice 70.26%
San Jose State@Utah State @Utah State 79.46%
Air Force@San Diego State @San Diego State 59.97%
Southern Methodist@Central Florida @Central Florida 96.54%
Northwestern@Purdue Northwestern 53.85%
Penn State@Illinois Penn State 66.25%
Kansas@Oklahoma @Oklahoma 94.36%
Fordham@Army Fordham 78.25%
South Alabama@South Carolina @South Carolina 88.22%
Marshall@Alabama-Birmingham Marshall 90.15%
Rutgers@Michigan State @Michigan State 92.36%
Eastern Kentucky@Florida @Florida 93.44%
Texas-San Antonio@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 73.88%
Indiana@Ohio State @Ohio State 98.73%
Minnesota@Nebraska @Nebraska 75.09%
Charleston Southern@Georgia @Georgia 99.39%
Virginia Tech@Wake Forest Virginia Tech 83.20%
Louisiana Tech@Old Dominion Louisiana Tech 78.05%
Washington State@Arizona State @Arizona State 85.27%
Western Michigan@Central Michigan @Central Michigan 53.85%
New Mexico@Colorado State @Colorado State 92.21%
Eastern Michigan@Ball State @Ball State 86.36%
Savannah State@BYU @BYU 99.98%
Tulsa@Houston @Houston 90.24%
Mississippi@Arkansas Mississippi 57.67%
Florida International@North Texas @North Texas 56.83%
Boston College@Florida State @Florida State 89.47%
Louisville@Notre Dame @Notre Dame 59.14%
Wisconsin@Iowa Wisconsin 73.71%
Arizona@Utah @Utah 59.97%
Syracuse@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 69.71%
Georgia State@Clemson @Clemson 99.56%
Tulane@East Carolina @East Carolina 87.50%
Maryland@Michigan @Michigan 62.44%
Texas Tech@Iowa State @Iowa State 53.64%
South Florida@Memphis @Memphis 88.68%
Stanford@California Stanford 64.26%
UL Monroe@New Mexico State UL Monroe 69.89%
Western Carolina@Alabama @Alabama 99.84%
Colorado@Oregon @Oregon 91.94%
Appalachian State@UL Lafayette @UL Lafayette 74.06%
Samford@Auburn @Auburn 97.36%
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee @Middle Tennessee 66.84%
Miami@Virginia Miami 64.87%
Vanderbilt@Mississippi State @Mississippi State 97.18%
Oklahoma State@Baylor @Baylor 96.19%
Missouri@Tennessee @Tennessee 58.93%
Cincinnati@Connecticut Cincinnati 74.40%
Southern California@UCLA @UCLA 58.72%
Boise State@Wyoming Boise State 80.51%
Oregon State@Washington @Washington 66.64%
Fresno State@Nevada @Nevada 70.83%
UNLV@Hawaii @Hawaii 74.92%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on November 18, 2014 at 12:33 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 12

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 12
Nov 182014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Kansas City@Oakland Kansas City 70.9% 11
Cincinnati@Houston @Houston 54.2% 1
N.Y. Jets@Buffalo @Buffalo 63.2% 5
Jacksonville@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 85.1% 15
Tampa Bay@Chicago @Chicago 67.8% 7
Cleveland@Atlanta @Atlanta 59.4% 2
Tennessee@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 80.1% 14
Green Bay@Minnesota Green Bay 77.0% 13
Detroit@New England @New England 70.3% 9
St. Louis@San Diego @San Diego 66.0% 6
Arizona@Seattle @Seattle 68.5% 8
Washington@San Francisco @San Francisco 74.2% 12
Miami@Denver @Denver 70.9% 10
Dallas@N.Y. Giants Dallas 59.7% 3
Baltimore@New Orleans @New Orleans 60.6% 4
       
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
120 87.41   890
95% confidence interval* 56 to 114  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on November 18, 2014 at 9:01 am

2014 NFL Week 11: 58 points

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 11: 58 points
Nov 182014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Oakland@San Diego @San Diego 77.9% 14
Denver@St. Louis Denver 76.8% 13
Tampa Bay@Washington @Washington 70.7% 12
Cincinnati@New Orleans @New Orleans 70.5% 11
Pittsburgh@Tennessee Pittsburgh 66.7% 10
Philadelphia@Green Bay @Green Bay 66.0% 9
Buffalo@Miami @Miami 65.1% 8
San Francisco@N.Y. Giants San Francisco 62.5% 7
Minnesota@Chicago @Chicago 59.6% 6
Houston@Cleveland @Cleveland 59.4% 5
New England@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 57.9% 4
Detroit@Arizona @Arizona 55.2% 3
Atlanta@Carolina @Carolina 54.2% 2
Seattle@Kansas City @Kansas City 50.6% 1
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Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
105 71.43  58 893
95% confidence interval* 41 to 97  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on November 18, 2014 at 7:34 am

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 11

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 11
Nov 112014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Oakland@San Diego @San Diego 77.9% 14
Denver@St. Louis Denver 76.8% 13
Tampa Bay@Washington @Washington 70.7% 12
Cincinnati@New Orleans @New Orleans 70.5% 11
Pittsburgh@Tennessee Pittsburgh 66.7% 10
Philadelphia@Green Bay @Green Bay 66.0% 9
Buffalo@Miami @Miami 65.1% 8
San Francisco@N.Y. Giants San Francisco 62.5% 7
Minnesota@Chicago @Chicago 59.6% 6
Houston@Cleveland @Cleveland 59.4% 5
New England@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 57.9% 4
Detroit@Arizona @Arizona 55.2% 3
Atlanta@Carolina @Carolina 54.2% 2
Seattle@Kansas City @Kansas City 50.6% 1
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Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
105 71.43   832
95% confidence interval* 41 to 97  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on November 11, 2014 at 2:30 pm

2014 NFL Week 10: 75 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 10: 75 points
Nov 102014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Cleveland@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 68.30% 7
Pittsburgh@N.Y. Jets Pittsburgh 64.87% 5
Tennessee@Baltimore @Baltimore 77.19% 12
Atlanta@Tampa Bay Atlanta 53.75% 1
Kansas City@Buffalo Kansas City 55.67% 2
Miami@Detroit @Detroit 58.43% 3
San Francisco@New Orleans @New Orleans 63.95% 4
Dallas@Jacksonville Dallas 70.07% 8
Denver@Oakland Denver 81.13% 13
N.Y. Giants@Seattle @Seattle 75.05% 11
St. Louis@Arizona @Arizona 70.93% 9
Chicago@Green Bay @Green Bay 70.93% 10
Carolina@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 67.94% 6
       
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Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
91 65.21  75 835
95% confidence interval* 39 to 87  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on November 10, 2014 at 9:59 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 12

 2014, College football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 12
Nov 102014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Toledo@Northern Illinois Toledo 66.63%
Akron@Buffalo Akron 58.93%
Kent State@Bowling Green @Bowling Green 79.92%
Ball State@Massachusetts @Massachusetts 58.93%
East Carolina@Cincinnati East Carolina 55.56%
Southern Miss@Texas-San Antonio @Texas-San Antonio 51.13%
California@Southern California @Southern California 81.68%
Tulsa@Central Florida @Central Florida 87.72%
Iowa@Illinois Iowa 63.86%
Temple@Penn State @Penn State 71.93%
Army@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 75.09%
South Carolina@Florida @Florida 65.07%
Clemson@Georgia Tech Clemson 57.67%
Virginia Tech@Duke @Duke 66.64%
Ohio State@Minnesota Ohio State 78.06%
Pittsburgh@North Carolina @North Carolina 55.13%
Miami (Ohio)@Central Michigan @Central Michigan 83.34%
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan @Western Michigan 95.00%
Nevada@Air Force @Air Force 52.57%
Rice@Marshall @Marshall 90.70%
Texas Christian@Kansas Texas Christian 96.46%
Appalachian State@Arkansas State @Arkansas State 80.81%
Wake Forest@North Carolina State @North Carolina State 79.31%
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Nebraska@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 65.07%
Mississippi State@Alabama @Alabama 67.42%
Middle Tennessee@Florida International Middle Tennessee 62.65%
Indiana@Rutgers @Rutgers 67.42%
Northwestern@Notre Dame @Notre Dame 85.65%
Georgia Southern@Navy @Navy 58.93%
Oklahoma@Texas Tech Oklahoma 96.80%
Washington@Arizona @Arizona 71.93%
Memphis@Tulane Memphis 76.10%
Kentucky@Tennessee @Tennessee 68.58%
New Mexico@Utah State @Utah State 85.65%
Hawaii@San Jose State @San Jose State 75.09%
Troy@Idaho @Idaho 62.65%
Utah@Stanford @Stanford 68.58%
UL Lafayette@UL Monroe UL Lafayette 68.58%
UNLV@Brigham Young @Brigham Young 93.53%
Auburn@Georgia @Georgia 56.41%
Texas@Oklahoma State Texas 55.56%
Texas State@South Alabama Texas State 58.81%
Missouri@Texas A&M @Texas A&M 63.86%
South Florida@Southern Methodist South Florida 76.10%
Florida State@Miami Florida State 56.41%
Louisiana State@Arkansas @Arkansas 56.41%
Michigan State@Maryland Michigan State 78.05%
North Texas@Texas El Paso @Texas El Paso 66.25%
San Diego State@Boise State @Boise State 81.68%
Arizona State@Oregon State Arizona State 73.00%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on November 10, 2014 at 9:00 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 11

 2014, College football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 11
Nov 042014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Toledo@Kent State Toledo 81.96%
Bowling Green@Akron @Akron 66.05%
Northern Illinois@Ball State Northern Illinois 57.67%
Buffalo@Ohio @Ohio 59.14%
Clemson@Wake Forest Clemson 91.81%
Memphis@Temple Memphis 68.58%
Utah State@Wyoming Utah State 66.83%
Southern Methodist@Tulsa @Tulsa 78.84%
Texas-San Antonio@Rice @Rice 74.06%
Baylor@Oklahoma @Oklahoma 63.46%
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Wisconsin@Purdue Wisconsin 86.12%
Louisiana Tech@Alabama-Birmingham Louisiana Tech 59.35%
Penn State@Indiana Penn State 66.63%
Georgia@Kentucky Georgia 74.06%
Presbyterian@Mississippi @Mississippi 99.98%
Iowa@Minnesota Iowa 54.07%
Duke@Syracuse Duke 58.30%
Georgia Tech@North Carolina State Georgia Tech 63.66%
Georgia State@Troy @Troy 66.84%
South Alabama@Arkansas State @Arkansas State 69.31%
West Virginia@Texas West Virginia 58.72%
Notre Dame@Arizona State @Arizona State 56.41%
Tulane@Houston @Houston 87.17%
Texas A&M@Auburn @Auburn 91.81%
Connecticut@Army Connecticut 61.42%
Iowa State@Kansas Iowa State 59.56%
Florida International@Old Dominion @Old Dominion 61.83%
Michigan@Northwestern Michigan 55.13%
UL Monroe@Appalachian State @Appalachian State 59.14%
Air Force@UNLV Air Force 65.46%
Tennessee-Martin@Mississippi State @Mississippi State 99.21%
Texas El Paso@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 68.19%
Washington State@Oregon State @Oregon State 69.52%
Georgia Southern@Texas State Georgia Southern 77.25%
Idaho@San Diego State @San Diego State 90.96%
Virginia@Florida State @Florida State 87.94%
Florida Atlantic@North Texas Florida Atlantic 59.56%
Boise State@New Mexico Boise State 87.83%
Hawaii@Colorado State @Colorado State 72.42%
Marshall@Southern Miss Marshall 94.21%
UCLA@Washington UCLA 62.04%
Louisville@Boston College Louisville 58.09%
Kansas State@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 65.07%
Florida@Vanderbilt Florida 82.80%
Alabama@Louisiana State Alabama 66.25%
Colorado@Arizona @Arizona 84.00%
UL Lafayette@New Mexico State UL Lafayette 85.03%
Ohio State@Michigan State @Michigan State 58.51%
Oregon@Utah Oregon 71.37%
San Jose State@Fresno State San Jose State 53.00%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on November 4, 2014 at 11:02 am