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2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Wildcard round

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Wildcard round
Dec 292014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Arizona@Carolina @Carolina 63.0% 12
Baltimore@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.3% 4
Cincinnati@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 62.2% 8
Detroit@Dallas @Dallas 70.4% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
40 26.19   1,504
95% confidence interval* 4 to 40  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 29, 2014 at 10:29 am

2014 NFL Week 17: 114 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 17: 114 points
Dec 282014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Chicago@Minnesota @Minnesota 68.9% 8
Buffalo@New England @New England 69.1% 9
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 66.8% 6
New Orleans@Tampa Bay New Orleans 61.4% 4
Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 58.3% 2
Carolina@Atlanta @Atlanta 61.4% 5
Cleveland@Baltimore @Baltimore 75.2% 13
Dallas@Washington Dallas 69.4% 10
San Diego@Kansas City @Kansas City 57.5% 1
Jacksonville@Houston @Houston 76.9% 14
Indianapolis@Tennessee Indianapolis 69.9% 11
Detroit@Green Bay @Green Bay 71.9% 12
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 83.4% 15
Oakland@Denver @Denver 87.0% 16
Arizona@San Francisco @San Francisco 67.6% 7
Cincinnati@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.4% 3
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 99.75  114 1,504
95% confidence interval* 65 to 128  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 28, 2014 at 9:09 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 17
Dec 232014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Chicago@Minnesota @Minnesota 68.9% 8
Buffalo@New England @New England 69.1% 9
N.Y. Jets@Miami @Miami 66.8% 6
New Orleans@Tampa Bay New Orleans 61.4% 4
Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 58.3% 2
Carolina@Atlanta @Atlanta 61.4% 5
Cleveland@Baltimore @Baltimore 75.2% 13
Dallas@Washington Dallas 69.4% 10
San Diego@Kansas City @Kansas City 57.5% 1
Jacksonville@Houston @Houston 76.9% 14
Indianapolis@Tennessee Indianapolis 69.9% 11
Detroit@Green Bay @Green Bay 71.9% 12
St. Louis@Seattle @Seattle 83.4% 15
Oakland@Denver @Denver 87.0% 16
Arizona@San Francisco @San Francisco 67.6% 7
Cincinnati@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.4% 3
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 99.75   1,390
95% confidence interval* 65 to 128  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 23, 2014 at 11:36 am

2014 NFL Week 16: 82 points

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 16: 82 points
Dec 222014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Tennessee@Jacksonville @Jacksonville 58.9% 3
Philadelphia@Washington Philadelphia 74.9% 14
San Diego@San Francisco @San Francisco 56.2% 1
Green Bay@Tampa Bay Green Bay 78.7% 16
Kansas City@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.4% 4
Atlanta@New Orleans @New Orleans 68.1% 10
New England@N.Y. Jets New England 78.5% 15
Minnesota@Miami @Miami 69.6% 11
Baltimore@Houston Baltimore 64.6% 8
Cleveland@Carolina @Carolina 61.5% 6
Detroit@Chicago Detroit 70.3% 12
N.Y. Giants@St. Louis @St. Louis 64.4% 7
Indianapolis@Dallas @Dallas 58.7% 2
Buffalo@Oakland Buffalo 67.6% 9
Seattle@Arizona Seattle 74.0% 13
Denver@Cincinnati Denver 59.9% 5
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 95.7  82 1,390
95% confidence interval* 60 to 126  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 22, 2014 at 10:52 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Bowl Season

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Bowl Season
Dec 162014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Nevada@UL Lafayette Nevada 52.57%
Utah State@Texas El Paso Utah State 74.58%
Utah@Colorado State Utah 58.93%
Western Michigan@Air Force @Air Force 53.85%
South Alabama@Bowling Green South Alabama 57.67%
Brigham Young@Memphis @Memphis 53.00%
Marshall@Northern Illinois Marshall 73.35%
Navy@San Diego State @San Diego State 57.67%
Central Michigan@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 59.77%
Fresno State@Rice @Rice 55.35%
Illinois@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 65.07%
Rutgers@North Carolina @North Carolina 57.88%
North Carolina State@Central Florida @Central Florida 55.13%
Cincinnati@Virginia Tech Cincinnati 57.67%
Arizona State@Duke Arizona State 68.58%
Miami@South Carolina Miami 57.67%
Boston College@Penn State Boston College 56.83%
Nebraska@Southern California @Southern California 66.84%
Texas A&M@West Virginia @West Virginia 58.93%
Oklahoma@Clemson Oklahoma 57.67%
Arkansas@Texas Arkansas 65.46%
Notre Dame@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 68.19%
Georgia@Louisville Georgia 67.03%
Maryland@Stanford @Stanford 81.68%
Mississippi@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 58.30%
Boise State@Arizona @Arizona 58.93%
Mississippi State@Georgia Tech Mississippi State 67.03%
Auburn@Wisconsin Auburn 66.45%
Michigan State@Baylor @Baylor 57.67%
Missouri@Minnesota Missouri 63.66%
Florida State@Oregon @Oregon 72.82%
Ohio State@Alabama @Alabama 72.82%
Houston@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 57.67%
Iowa@Tennessee @Tennessee 58.93%
Kansas State@UCLA Kansas State 52.57%
Washington@Oklahoma State Washington 63.66%
East Carolina@Florida @Florida 68.00%
Toledo@Arkansas State Toledo 57.67%

 

 Posted by on December 16, 2014 at 4:07 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 16

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 16
Dec 162014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Tennessee@Jacksonville @Jacksonville 58.9% 3
Philadelphia@Washington Philadelphia 74.9% 14
San Diego@San Francisco @San Francisco 56.2% 1
Green Bay@Tampa Bay Green Bay 78.7% 16
Kansas City@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.4% 4
Atlanta@New Orleans @New Orleans 68.1% 10
New England@N.Y. Jets New England 78.5% 15
Minnesota@Miami @Miami 69.6% 11
Baltimore@Houston Baltimore 64.6% 8
Cleveland@Carolina @Carolina 61.5% 6
Detroit@Chicago Detroit 70.3% 12
N.Y. Giants@St. Louis @St. Louis 64.4% 7
Indianapolis@Dallas @Dallas 58.7% 2
Buffalo@Oakland Buffalo 67.6% 9
Seattle@Arizona Seattle 74.0% 13
Denver@Cincinnati Denver 59.9% 5
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 95.7   1,308**
95% confidence interval* 60 to 126  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

** For several weeks the YTD totals have been understated by 3 points in both the Ranks posts and the Results posts. These errors have been corrected in the Results posts. They have not been corrected in the Ranks posts until this one, so as not to change the dates when it appears the final Ranks were published or updated.

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on December 16, 2014 at 11:12 am

2014 NFL Week 15: 117 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 15: 117 points
Dec 152014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Arizona@St. Louis @St. Louis 60.9% 6
Green Bay@Buffalo Green Bay 65.8% 8
Tampa Bay@Carolina @Carolina 66.5% 9
Jacksonville@Baltimore @Baltimore 85.4% 16
Cincinnati@Cleveland Cincinnati 53.0% 1
Pittsburgh@Atlanta Pittsburgh 57.1% 3
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 69.4% 10
Miami@New England @New England 73.0% 13
Houston@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 69.6% 11
Oakland@Kansas City @Kansas City 78.5% 15
Denver@San Diego Denver 62.1% 7
N.Y. Jets@Tennessee N.Y. Jets 54.2% 2
Minnesota@Detroit @Detroit 72.0% 12
San Francisco@Seattle @Seattle 77.8% 14
Dallas@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 59.9% 5
New Orleans@Chicago New Orleans 58.7% 4
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 96.97  117 1,308
95% confidence interval* 62 to 126  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on December 15, 2014 at 9:30 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 15

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Week 15
Dec 092014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Arizona@St. Louis @St. Louis 60.9% 6
Green Bay@Buffalo Green Bay 65.8% 8
Tampa Bay@Carolina @Carolina 66.5% 9
Jacksonville@Baltimore @Baltimore 85.4% 16
Cincinnati@Cleveland Cincinnati 53.0% 1
Pittsburgh@Atlanta Pittsburgh 57.1% 3
Washington@N.Y. Giants @N.Y. Giants 69.4% 10
Miami@New England @New England 73.0% 13
Houston@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 69.6% 11
Oakland@Kansas City @Kansas City 78.5% 15
Denver@San Diego Denver 62.1% 7
N.Y. Jets@Tennessee N.Y. Jets 54.2% 2
Minnesota@Detroit @Detroit 72.0% 12
San Francisco@Seattle @Seattle 77.8% 14
Dallas@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 59.9% 5
New Orleans@Chicago New Orleans 58.7% 4
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 96.97   1,188
95% confidence interval* 62 to 126  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on December 9, 2014 at 8:56 am

2014 NFL Week 14: 99 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Week 14: 99 points
Dec 092014
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Dallas@Chicago Dallas 60.4% 7
Indianapolis@Cleveland Indianapolis 61.8% 9
Tampa Bay@Detroit @Detroit 77.2% 14
Baltimore@Miami @Miami 58.7% 5
Houston@Jacksonville Houston 65.3% 10
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 59.4% 6
St. Louis@Washington St. Louis 57.9% 4
N.Y. Giants@Tennessee N.Y. Giants 54.5% 3
N.Y. Jets@Minnesota @Minnesota 67.2% 11
Carolina@New Orleans @New Orleans 77.0% 13
Kansas City@Arizona @Arizona 54.2% 2
Buffalo@Denver @Denver 77.9% 15
San Francisco@Oakland San Francisco 74.0% 12
Seattle@Philadelphia @Philadelphia 53.3% 1
New England@San Diego New England 60.9% 8
Atlanta@Green Bay @Green Bay 82.1% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 95.19  99 1,191
95% confidence interval* 60 to 125  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

 Posted by on December 9, 2014 at 8:47 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 15

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 15
Dec 022014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Central Florida@East Carolina @East Carolina 67.03%
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois @Northern Illinois 66.83%
Arizona@Oregon @Oregon 82.10%
Iowa State@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 98.49%
Houston@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 67.03%
Louisiana Tech@Marshall @Marshall 79.00%
Southern Methodist@Connecticut @Connecticut 77.90%
Oklahoma State@Oklahoma @Oklahoma 89.87%
Alabama@Missouri Alabama 82.38%
Temple@Tulane Temple 59.35%
Kansas State@Baylor @Baylor 62.67%
Florida State@Georgia Tech Florida State 60.39%
Wisconsin@Ohio State Wisconsin 60.60%
Fresno State@Boise State @Boise State 90.78%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on December 2, 2014 at 4:12 pm