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NFL Super Bowl 50 pick

 2015, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on NFL Super Bowl 50 pick
Jan 252016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
16 Carolina 63.5% Carolina@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
10.16 16 0 to 16
YTD  
1,473  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 25, 2016 at 4:42 pm

2015 NFL Playoff Conference Round: 8 points

 2015, NFL, playoffs, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Playoff Conference Round: 8 points
Jan 252016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
16 New England 59.6% New England@Denver
8 @Carolina 58.9% Arizona@Carolina
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
8 14.24 24 0 to 24
YTD  
1,473  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 25, 2016 at 4:27 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference round

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference round
Jan 182016
 

(1/25/2016: Corrected “Possible” points.)

Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
16 New England 59.6% New England@Denver
8 @Carolina 58.9% Arizona@Carolina
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
14.24 24 0 to 24
YTD  
1,465  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 18, 2016 at 2:09 pm

2015 NFL Playoff Divisional Round: 40 points

 2015, NFL, playoffs, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Playoff Divisional Round: 40 points
Jan 182016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @New England 65.1% Kansas City@New England
16 @Arizona 70.0% Green Bay@Arizona
4 @Carolina 58.5% Seattle@Carolina
8 @Denver 62.8% Pittsburgh@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 40 26.38 40 4 to 40
YTD  
1,465  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 18, 2016 at 1:56 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional round

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional round
Jan 122016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @New England 65.1% Kansas City@New England
16 @Arizona 70.0% Green Bay@Arizona
4 @Carolina 58.5% Seattle@Carolina
8 @Denver 62.8% Pittsburgh@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
26.38 40 4 to 40
YTD  
1,425  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 12, 2016 at 9:26 am

2015 NFL Playoff Wildcard Round: 36 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Playoff Wildcard Round: 36 points
Jan 122016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 Kansas City 58.1% Kansas City@Houston
8 Pittsburgh 55.4% Pittsburgh@Cincinatti
16 Seattle 59.7% Seattle@Minnesota
4 @Washington 51.2% Green Bay@Washington
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 36 23.02 40 0 to 40
YTD  
1,425  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 12, 2016 at 6:53 am

2015 Confidence Picks Week 17

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 Confidence Picks Week 17
Dec 292015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
7 @Atlanta 61.8% New Orleans@Atlanta
3 N.Y. Jets 58.9% N.Y. Jets@Buffalo
1 @Chicago 53.0% Detroit@Chicago
12 @Cincinnati 71.3% Baltimore@Cincinnati
15 Pittsburgh 77.6% Pittsburgh@Cleveland
2 @Dallas 58.9% Washington@Dallas
10 @Indianapolis 67.4% Tennessee@Indianapolis
14 New England 75.1% New England@Miami
4 @N.Y. Giants 59.2% Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants
9 @Houston 67.4% Jacksonville@Houston
13 @Denver 74.5% San Diego@Denver
11 @Kansas City 69.9% Oakland@Kansas City
8 @Arizona 63.0% Seattle@Arizona
6 St. Louis 60.6% St. Louis@San Francisco
16 @Carolina 78.9% Tampa Bay@Carolina
5 @Green Bay 59.7% Minnesota@Green Bay
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  95.32 136 60 to 126
YTD  
1,303  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 29, 2015 at 10:02 am

2015 NFL Week 16: 84 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 16: 84 points
Dec 292015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
9 @Oakland 65.2% San Diego@Oakland
4 @Philadelphia 59.9% Washington@Philadelphia
12 Carolina 70.3% Carolina@Atlanta
11 @Buffalo 67.8% Dallas@Buffalo
13 @Detroit 72.0% San Francisco@Detroit
7 Houston 63.0% Houston@Tennessee
15 @Kansas City 83.6% Cleveland@Kansas City
1 @Miami 56.0% Indianapolis@Miami
3 New England 59.8% New England@N.Y. Jets
2 @Tampa Bay 58.9% Chicago@Tampa Bay
14 Pittsburgh 78.8% Pittsburgh@Baltimore
6 @New Orleans 60.4% Jacksonville@New Orleans
8 @Arizona 63.0% Green Bay@Arizona
16 @Seattle 84.5% St. Louis@Seattle
10 @Minnesota 67.1% N.Y. Giants@Minnesota
5 @Denver 60.4% Cincinnati@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
84 96.95 136 62 to 126
YTD
1,303  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 29, 2015 at 9:55 am

2015 Confidence Picks Week 16

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 Confidence Picks Week 16
Dec 222015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
9 @Oakland 65.2% San Diego@Oakland
4 @Philadelphia 59.9% Washington@Philadelphia
12 Carolina 70.3% Carolina@Atlanta
11 @Buffalo 67.8% Dallas@Buffalo
13 @Detroit 72.0% San Francisco@Detroit
7 Houston 63.0% Houston@Tennessee
15 @Kansas City 83.6% Cleveland@Kansas City
1 @Miami 56.0% Indianapolis@Miami
3 New England 59.8% New England@N.Y. Jets
2 @Tampa Bay 58.9% Chicago@Tampa Bay
14 Pittsburgh 78.8% Pittsburgh@Baltimore
6 @New Orleans 60.4% Jacksonville@New Orleans
8 @Arizona 63.0% Green Bay@Arizona
16 @Seattle 84.5% St. Louis@Seattle
10 @Minnesota 67.1% N.Y. Giants@Minnesota
5 @Denver 60.4% Cincinnati@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  96.95 136 62 to 126
YTD  
1,219  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 22, 2015 at 7:31 am

2015 NFL Week 15: 123 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 15: 123 points
Dec 222015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
3 @St. Louis 50.8% Tampa Bay@St. Louis
7 N.Y. Jets 59.1% N.Y. Jets@Dallas
1 Houston 50.1% Houston@Indianapolis
12 @Minnesota 65.4% Chicago@Minnesota
15 @New England 85.7% Tennessee@New England
9 Carolina 59.9% Carolina@N.Y. Giants
2 @Washington 50.3% Buffalo@Washington
8 @Jacksonville 59.6% Atlanta@Jacksonville
14 Kansas City 71.7% Kansas City@Baltimore
6 Green Bay 58.9% Green Bay@Oakland
16 @Seattle 86.6% Cleveland@Seattle
13 @Pittsburgh 66.6% Denver@Pittsburgh
4 @San Diego 50.9% Miami@San Diego
11 Cincinnati 62.2% Cincinnati@San Francisco
10 Arizona 60.8% Arizona@Philadelphia
5 @New Orleans 58.9% Detroit@New Orleans
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
123 92.02 136 57 to 123
YTD 1,219  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

YTD W-L: 147-77

 Posted by on December 22, 2015 at 6:16 am