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2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Super Bowl XLIX

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Super Bowl XLIX
Jan 272015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
New England@Seattle New England 53.2% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
16 8.51   1,592
95% confidence interval* 0 to 16  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 27, 2015 at 11:06 am

2014 NFL Conference Championship Round: 24 points

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Conference Championship Round: 24 points
Jan 182015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@New England @New England 69.7% 8
Green Bay@Seattle @Seattle 71.0% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
24 16.93  24 1,592
95% confidence interval* 0 to 24  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 18, 2015 at 8:54 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference Championship round

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference Championship round
Jan 132015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@New England @New England 69.7% 8
Green Bay@Seattle @Seattle 71.0% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
24 16.93   1,568
95% confidence interval* 0 to 24  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 13, 2015 at 1:00 pm

2014 NFL Divisional Playoff Round: 28 points

 2014, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Divisional Playoff Round: 28 points
Jan 112015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Baltimore@New England @New England 69.9% 8
Carolina@Seattle @Seattle 79.0% 16
Dallas@Green Bay @Green Bay 68.0% 4
Indianapolis@Denver @Denver 70.2% 12
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
40 29.37  28 1,568
95% confidence interval* 8 to 40  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 11, 2015 at 6:13 pm

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional Playoff round

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional Playoff round
Jan 052015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Baltimore@New England @New England 69.9% 8
Carolina@Seattle @Seattle 79.0% 16
Dallas@Green Bay @Green Bay 68.0% 4
Indianapolis@Denver @Denver 70.2% 12
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
40 29.37   1,540
95% confidence interval* 8 to 40  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 5, 2015 at 5:03 pm

2014 NFL Playoff Wildcard Round: 36 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Playoff Wildcard Round: 36 points
Jan 042015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Arizona@Carolina @Carolina 63.0% 12
Baltimore@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.3% 4
Cincinnati@Indianapolis @Indianapolis 62.2% 8
Detroit@Dallas @Dallas 70.4% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
40 26.19  36 1,540
95% confidence interval* 4 to 40  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 4, 2015 at 6:01 pm