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Mar 152015
 

Update, March 16, 2015, 5:10p PDT
Corrected “Alabama” to read “Albany” in East region. Oklahoma’s survival rates are improved, so other teams’ survival rates in that region are slightly reduced. TMA

Midwest region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6
1Kentucky0.97530.89380.81120.67710.45930.3368
16Manhattan0.02470.00540.00110.000100
8Cincinnati0.56540.0620.03130.01080.00220.0005
9Purdue0.43460.03880.01710.0050.00080.0002
5West Virginia0.63020.37260.06110.02430.00570.0016
12Buffalo0.36980.17050.0190.00540.00080.0002
4Maryland0.61960.31080.04460.01580.00320.0008
13Valparaiso0.38040.1460.01460.00370.00050.0001
6Butler0.47750.20460.08660.01780.00440.0013
11Texas0.52250.23450.10430.02270.0060.0018
3Notre Dame0.87650.53830.2940.08260.02840.0113
14Northeastern0.12350.02260.00350.000300
7Wichita St.0.73090.39040.2080.05490.01770.0066
10Indiana0.26910.08450.02540.00350.00060.0001
2Kansas0.83810.48860.27080.07530.02570.0101
15New Mexico St.0.16190.03650.00730.00070.00010

West region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6
1Wisconsin0.9550.81560.64430.36170.17180.1027
16Coastal Carolina0.0450.00970.00190.000100
8Oregon0.47210.07890.03290.00660.00110.0002
9Oklahoma St.0.52790.09570.04220.00920.00160.0004
5Arkansas Little Rock0.22460.01910.0008000
12Wofford0.77540.17870.02170.00250.00020
4North Carolina0.79420.67680.23830.08330.02360.0087
13Harvard0.20580.12540.01790.00250.00030
6Xavier0.52440.2340.05250.01520.00320.0009
11BYU0.47560.20150.04220.01150.00220.0006
3Baylor0.7750.48960.15210.05890.01690.0063
14Georgia St.0.2250.07490.00960.00170.00020
7VCU0.43540.07080.03030.00810.00160.0004
10Ohio St.0.56460.11170.05490.01720.00390.0012
2Arizona0.97720.81510.65810.42160.21790.1399
15Texas Southern0.02280.00240.0002000

East region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6
1Villanova0.96780.81570.60250.3590.23040.1001
16Lafayette0.03220.00490.0005000
8North Carolina St.0.51650.09490.03470.00840.00230.0003
9LSU0.48350.08460.02970.00690.00180.0002
5Northern Iowa0.84910.54040.20510.08360.03750.0099
12Wyoming0.15090.03890.00450.00050.00010
4Louisville0.78810.37490.11730.03940.01460.0031
13UC Irvine0.21190.04570.00560.00070.00010
6Providence0.56040.21740.05690.01640.00520.0009
11Dayton0.43960.14820.03280.0080.00220.0003
3Oklahoma0.89220.61180.24260.10450.04920.0139
14Albany0.10780.02260.00190.000200
7Michigan St.0.62160.16810.08170.02840.01080.0024
10Georgia0.37840.07260.02690.00680.00190.0003
2Virginia0.9530.75170.55610.3370.21930.0973
15Belmont0.0470.00760.0010.000100

South region

SeedTeamRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6
1Duke0.91960.70070.4460.26010.12460.0442
16North Florida0.08040.01780.00260.000300
8San Diego St.0.57560.17530.06910.02370.00610.0011
9St. John's0.42440.10620.03480.00980.0020.0003
5Utah0.74140.5210.2790.150.0650.0205
12Stephen F. Austin0.25860.12070.03670.0110.00240.0004
4Georgetown0.83740.33820.12930.04920.01420.0028
13Eastern Washington0.16260.02020.00240.000300
6SMU0.60740.27770.09880.03670.01050.002
11UCLA0.39260.14190.03820.01070.00220.0003
3Iowa St.0.86580.55130.24480.11330.04150.0108
14UAB0.13420.02910.00360.000500
7Iowa0.55440.16780.0770.02780.00770.0015
10Davidson0.44560.11710.04770.0150.00360.0006
2Gonzaga0.93850.70480.48850.29140.14470.0537
15North Dakota St.0.06150.01020.00140.000100

Survival rates are derived from a composite of strength ratings from Ken Pomoroy and LRMC. Any errors are mine.

 Posted by on March 15, 2015 at 5:15 pm