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2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 4

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 4
Sep 292015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
2 Baltimore 57.9% Baltimore@Pittsburgh
1 N.Y. Jets 56.7% N.Y. Jets@Miami
9 @Atlanta 69.0% Houston@Atlanta
3 Oakland 58.7% Oakland@Chicago
6 @Cincinnati 60.4% Kansas City@Cincinnati
13 @Indianapolis 74.7% Jacksonville@Indianapolis
8 @Buffalo 67.9% N.Y. Giants@Buffalo
4 Philadelphia 59.4% Philadelphia@Washington
5 Carolina 59.4% Carolina@Tampa Bay
12 @San Diego 72.2% Cleveland@San Diego
10 @Denver 69.6% Minnesota@Denver
14 Green Bay 75.7% Green Bay@San Francisco
11 @Arizona 69.8% St. Louis@Arizona
7 @New Orleans 66.0% Dallas@New Orleans
15 @Seattle 77.0% Detroit@Seattle
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  83.88 120 51 to 112
YTD  
257  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on September 29, 2015 at 8:29 am

2015 NFL Week 3: 110 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 3: 110 points
Sep 282015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
11 @N.Y. Giants 61.8% Washington@N.Y. Giants
10 @Cleveland 60.6% Oakland@Cleveland
2 Atlanta 54.7% Atlanta@Dallas
9 Indianapolis 60.1% Indianapolis@Tennessee
1 Pittsburgh 53.0% Pittsburgh@St. Louis
4 @Minnesota 56.6% San Diego@Minnesota
15 @New England 85.1% Jacksonville@New England
3 @N.Y. Jets 55.4% Philadelphia@N.Y. Jets
8 @Carolina 60.0% New Orleans@Carolina
6 @Baltimore 57.7% Cincinnati@Baltimore
12 @Houston 68.9% Tampa Bay@Houston
13 @Arizona 69.3% San Francisco@Arizona
7 @Miami 58.5% Buffalo@Miami
16 @Seattle 86.8% Chicago@Seattle
5 Denver 57.5% Denver@Detroit
14 @Green Bay 69.8% Kansas City@Green Bay
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
110  92.75 136 57 to 123
YTD  
257  

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on September 28, 2015 at 9:52 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 3

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 3
Sep 222015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
11 @N.Y. Giants 61.8% Washington@N.Y. Giants
10 @Cleveland 60.6% Oakland@Cleveland
2 Atlanta 54.7% Atlanta@Dallas
9 Indianapolis 60.1% Indianapolis@Tennessee
1 Pittsburgh 53.0% Pittsburgh@St. Louis
4 @Minnesota 56.6% San Diego@Minnesota
15 @New England 85.1% Jacksonville@New England
3 @N.Y. Jets 55.4% Philadelphia@N.Y. Jets
8 @Carolina 60.0% New Orleans@Carolina
6 @Baltimore 57.7% Cincinnati@Baltimore
12 @Houston 68.9% Tampa Bay@Houston
13 @Arizona 69.3% San Francisco@Arizona
7 @Miami 58.5% Buffalo@Miami
16 @Seattle 86.8% Chicago@Seattle
5 Denver 57.5% Denver@Detroit
14 @Green Bay 69.8% Kansas City@Green Bay
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  92.75 136 57 to 123
YTD  
147  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on September 22, 2015 at 9:24 am

2015 NFL Week 2: 47 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 2: 47 points
Sep 212015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability
6 @Kansas City 59.0%
8 @Cincinnati 59.0%
1 Tennessee 54.0%
2 New England 54.0%
9 St. Louis 61.0%
4 @N.Y. Giants 57.0%
7 @Carolina 59.0%
12 @Pittsburgh 67.0%
16 @New Orleans 78.0%
3 Arizona 56.0%
5 @Minnesota 58.0%
13 Baltimore 68.0%
14 Miami 68.0%
11 @Philadelphia 65.0%
10 @Green Bay 61.0%
15 @Indianapolis 70.0%
Actual Expected
47 89.08
YTD
147

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

First result below the 95% confidence interval in quite a while. By definition, this should occur once every 40 outcomes.

 Posted by on September 21, 2015 at 9:30 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 2

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 2
Sep 152015
 

Final update: 9/17/15 8:30a PDT

Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
6 @Kansas City 59% Denver@Kansas City
8 @Cincinnati 59% San Diego@Cincinnati
1 Tennessee 54% Tennessee@Cleveland
2 New England 54% New England@Buffalo
9 St. Louis 61% St. Louis@Washington
4 @N.Y. Giants 57% Atlanta@N.Y. Giants
7 @Carolina 59% Houston@Carolina
12 @Pittsburgh 67% San Francisco@Pittsburgh
16 @New Orleans 78% Tampa Bay@New Orleans
3 Arizona 56% Arizona@Chicago
5 @Minnesota 58% Detroit@Minnesota
13 Baltimore 68% Baltimore@Oakland
14 Miami 68% Miami@Jacksonville
11 @Philadelphia 65% Dallas@Philadelphia
10 @Green Bay 61% Seattle@Green Bay
15 @Indianapolis 70% N.Y. Jets@Indianapolis
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*

89.08 136 52 to 122
YTD
100

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on September 15, 2015 at 9:33 am

2015 NFL Week 1: 100 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 1: 100 points
Sep 152015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability
16 @New England 71.8%
9 Carolina 59.8%
11 Miami 61.0%
12 Seattle 61.4%
15 Green Bay 69.3%
1 @Houston 53.2%
5 Indianapolis 58.3%
7 @N.Y. Jets 58.9%
3 @San Diego 58.1%
4 @Arizona 58.1%
13 @Denver 64.3%
10 @Tampa Bay 59.9%
8 Cincinnati 59.8%
14 @Dallas 66.2%
6 Philadelphia 58.7%
2 Minnesota 57.5%
Actual Expected
100 86.05

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on September 15, 2015 at 6:15 am

New WinThatPool! app: Tactical picks for weekly payouts

 NFL  Comments Off on New WinThatPool! app: Tactical picks for weekly payouts
Sep 072015
 

WinThatPool! is pleased to reintroduce a feature that has been absent since the 2009 season.

Tactical picks for pick’em pools

Tactical picks for confidence pools

In 2009, WinThatPool!’s inaugural season, the site was quite ambitious. Not only did WinThatPool! publish confidence pool recommendations based on WinProbability, the site also published tactical picks that depended on the number of participants in your pool.

The “app” itself was clumsy. So clumsy that WinThatPool discontinued it starting in 2010.

Now WinThatPool is prepared to reintroduce such tactical apps, build on a different platform. While the 2009 app was built using software called Spreadsheet Converter, the 2015 app is built using shiny, an interactive web development platform that renders output from data analysis conducted in the programming language R.

The first tactical apps WinThatPool! is introducing are for straight pick’em pools that do not use confidence points, and another for pools that use confidence points.

The apps should work on desktops, laptops, and tablets. They don’t seem to render fully on smartphones.

 Posted by on September 7, 2015 at 11:25 am

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 1

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Office pool, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 1
Sep 042015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Pittsburgh@New England @New England 71.8% 16
Carolina@Jacksonville Carolina 59.8% 9
Miami@Washington Miami 61.0% 11
Seattle@St. Louis Seattle 61.4% 12
Green Bay@Chicago Green Bay 69.3% 15
Kansas City@Houston @Houston 53.2% 1
Indianapolis@Buffalo Indianapolis 58.3% 5
Cleveland@N.Y. Jets @N.Y. Jets 58.9% 7
Detroit@San Diego @San Diego 58.1% 3
New Orleans@Arizona @Arizona 58.1% 4
Baltimore@Denver @Denver 64.3% 13
Tennessee@Tampa Bay @Tampa Bay 59.9% 10
Cincinnati@Oakland Cincinnati 59.8% 8
N.Y. Giants@Dallas @Dallas 66.2% 14
Philadelphia@Atlanta Philadelphia 58.7% 6
Minnesota@San Francisco Minnesota 57.5% 2
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
136 86.05   0
95% confidence interval* 48 to 120  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on September 4, 2015 at 8:44 am