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2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 8

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 8
Oct 272015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
13 @New England 71.4% Miami@New England
9 @Kansas City 67.2% Detroit@Kansas City
4 @Baltimore 58.9% San Diego@Baltimore
2 @Pittsburgh 55.7% Cincinnati@Pittsburgh
3 Minnesota 56.8% Minnesota@Chicago
7 @Houston 64.9% Tennessee@Houston
12 @Atlanta 70.8% Tampa Bay@Atlanta
8 Arizona 66.4% Arizona@Cleveland
6 @New Orleans 60.0% N.Y. Giants@New Orleans
14 @St. Louis 74.2% San Francisco@St. Louis
1 N.Y. Jets 55.2% N.Y. Jets@Oakland
10 Seattle 67.6% Seattle@Dallas
5 Green Bay 59.1% Green Bay@Denver
11 @Carolina 69.5% Indianapolis@Carolina
       
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  70.76 105 40 to 97
YTD  
579  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on October 27, 2015 at 5:56 am

2015 NFL Week 7: 80 points

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Oct 262015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
11 Seattle 65.3% Seattle@San Francisco
8 Buffalo 63.2% Buffalo@Jacksonville
12 @St. Louis 65.6% Cleveland@St. Louis
7 @Miami 62.2% Houston@Miami
1 Pittsburgh 56.0% Pittsburgh@Kansas City
14 @New England 75.4% N.Y. Jets@New England
3 @Washington 59.3% Tampa Bay@Washington
5 Atlanta 61.6% Atlanta@Tennessee
2 Minnesota 58.3% Minnesota@Detroit
10 @Indianapolis 64.0% New Orleans@Indianapolis
6 @San Diego 62.2% Oakland@San Diego
9 @N.Y. Giants 64.0% Dallas@N.Y. Giants
4 @Carolina 59.4% Philadelphia@Carolina
13 @Arizona 71.7% Baltimore@Arizona
       
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
80 69.2 105 38 to 96
YTD  
579  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on October 26, 2015 at 8:16 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 7

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 7
Oct 202015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
11 Seattle 65.3% Seattle@San Francisco
8 Buffalo 63.2% Buffalo@Jacksonville
12 @St. Louis 65.6% Cleveland@St. Louis
7 @Miami 62.2% Houston@Miami
1 Pittsburgh 56.0% Pittsburgh@Kansas City
14 @New England 75.4% N.Y. Jets@New England
3 @Washington 59.3% Tampa Bay@Washington
5 Atlanta 61.6% Atlanta@Tennessee
2 Minnesota 58.3% Minnesota@Detroit
10 @Indianapolis 64.0% New Orleans@Indianapolis
6 @San Diego 62.2% Oakland@San Diego
9 @N.Y. Giants 64.0% Dallas@N.Y. Giants
4 @Carolina 59.4% Philadelphia@Carolina
13 @Arizona 71.7% Baltimore@Arizona
       
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  69.2 105 38 to 96
YTD  
499  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on October 20, 2015 at 9:04 am

2015 NFL Week 6: 76 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 6: 76 points
Oct 192015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
5 Atlanta 58.1% Atlanta@New Orleans
10 Denver 63.2% Denver@Cleveland
1 Houston 54.2% Houston@Jacksonville
6 @Detroit 58.5% Chicago@Detroit
3 @Tennessee 57.5% Miami@Tennessee
11 @N.Y. Jets 66.4% Washington@N.Y. Jets
7 Arizona 59.8% Arizona@Pittsburgh
4 Cincinnati 57.9% Cincinnati@Buffalo
9 @Minnesota 60.8% Kansas City@Minnesota
12 @Seattle 69.3% Carolina@Seattle
2 Baltimore 56.6% Baltimore@San Francisco
14 @Green Bay 77.1% San Diego@Green Bay
13 New England 73.0% New England@Indianapolis
8 @Philadelphia 60.7% N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 76 68.88 105 38 to 95
YTD  
499  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on October 19, 2015 at 8:52 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 6

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 6
Oct 132015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
5 Atlanta 58.1% Atlanta@New Orleans
10 Denver 63.2% Denver@Cleveland
1 Houston 54.2% Houston@Jacksonville
6 @Detroit 58.5% Chicago@Detroit
3 @Tennessee 57.5% Miami@Tennessee
11 @N.Y. Jets 66.4% Washington@N.Y. Jets
7 Arizona 59.8% Arizona@Pittsburgh
4 Cincinnati 57.9% Cincinnati@Buffalo
9 @Minnesota 60.8% Kansas City@Minnesota
12 @Seattle 69.3% Carolina@Seattle
2 Baltimore 56.6% Baltimore@San Francisco
14 @Green Bay 77.1% San Diego@Green Bay
13 New England 73.0% New England@Indianapolis
8 @Philadelphia 60.7% N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  68.88 105 38 to 95
YTD  
423  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on October 13, 2015 at 8:08 am

2015 NFL Week 5: 72 points

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Oct 132015
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
6 @Houston 60.5% Indianapolis@Houston
9 @Baltimore 68.9% Cleveland@Baltimore
14 @Green Bay 75.7% St. Louis@Green Bay
7 @Philadelphia 63.6% New Orleans@Philadelphia
1 Buffalo 56.6% Buffalo@Tennessee
13 @Kansas City 75.6% Chicago@Kansas City
3 @Cincinnati 58.3% Seattle@Cincinnati
4 @Tampa Bay 58.3% Jacksonville@Tampa Bay
11 @Atlanta 71.4% Washington@Atlanta
2 Arizona 58.1% Arizona@Detroit
8 Denver 64.0% Denver@Oakland
12 New England 75.5% New England@Dallas
10 @N.Y. Giants 70.1% San Francisco@N.Y. Giants
5 @San Diego 59.3% Pittsburgh@San Diego
       
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
72 72.54 105 42 to 98
YTD  
423  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on October 13, 2015 at 8:02 am

Updated: 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 5

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on Updated: 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 5
Oct 082015
 

Updated due to Indianapolis news about Andrew Luck not starting.

Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
6 @Houston 60.5% Indianapolis@Houston
9 @Baltimore 68.9% Cleveland@Baltimore
14 @Green Bay 75.7% St. Louis@Green Bay
7 @Philadelphia 63.6% New Orleans@Philadelphia
1 Buffalo 56.6% Buffalo@Tennessee
13 @Kansas City 75.6% Chicago@Kansas City
3 @Cincinnati 58.3% Seattle@Cincinnati
4 @Tampa Bay 58.3% Jacksonville@Tampa Bay
11 @Atlanta 71.4% Washington@Atlanta
2 Arizona 58.1% Arizona@Detroit
8 Denver 64.0% Denver@Oakland
12 New England 75.5% New England@Dallas
10 @N.Y. Giants 70.1% San Francisco@N.Y. Giants
5 @San Diego 59.3% Pittsburgh@San Diego
       
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  72.54 105 42 to 98
YTD  
351  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on October 8, 2015 at 9:30 am

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 5

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 5
Oct 062015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
1 Indianapolis 50.2% Indianapolis@Houston
9 @Baltimore 68.9% Cleveland@Baltimore
14 @Green Bay 76.4% St. Louis@Green Bay
8 @Philadelphia 65.0% New Orleans@Philadelphia
3 Buffalo 57.4% Buffalo@Tennessee
13 @Kansas City 75.9% Chicago@Kansas City
2 @Cincinnati 54.5% Seattle@Cincinnati
4 @Tampa Bay 58.5% Jacksonville@Tampa Bay
11 @Atlanta 71.7% Washington@Atlanta
5 Arizona 58.9% Arizona@Detroit
7 Denver 65.0% Denver@Oakland
12 New England 75.2% New England@Dallas
10 @N.Y. Giants 70.3% San Francisco@N.Y. Giants
6 @San Diego 59.3% Pittsburgh@San Diego
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  72.61 105 43 to 98
YTD  
351  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on October 6, 2015 at 9:05 am

2015 NFL Week 4: 94 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 4: 94 points
Oct 052015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
2 Baltimore 57.9% Baltimore@Pittsburgh
1 N.Y. Jets 56.7% N.Y. Jets@Miami
9 @Atlanta 69.0% Houston@Atlanta
3 Oakland 58.7% Oakland@Chicago
6 @Cincinnati 60.4% Kansas City@Cincinnati
13 @Indianapolis 74.7% Jacksonville@Indianapolis
8 @Buffalo 67.9% N.Y. Giants@Buffalo
4 Philadelphia 59.4% Philadelphia@Washington
5 Carolina 59.4% Carolina@Tampa Bay
12 @San Diego 72.2% Cleveland@San Diego
10 @Denver 69.6% Minnesota@Denver
14 Green Bay 75.7% Green Bay@San Francisco
11 @Arizona 69.8% St. Louis@Arizona
7 @New Orleans 66.0% Dallas@New Orleans
15 @Seattle 77.0% Detroit@Seattle
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
94 83.88 120 51 to 112
YTD  
351  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on October 5, 2015 at 8:50 pm