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2015 NFL Week 12: 81 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 12: 81 points
Nov 302015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
1 Philadelphia 53.0% Philadelphia@Detroit
2 Carolina 54.2% Carolina@Dallas
15 @Green Bay 75.4% Chicago@Green Bay
4 @Atlanta 55.8% Minnesota@Atlanta
14 @Cincinnati 75.1% St. Louis@Cincinnati
3 Oakland 55.3% Oakland@Tennessee
8 @Indianapolis 58.9% Tampa Bay@Indianapolis
10 @Kansas City 61.1% Buffalo@Kansas City
9 @N.Y. Jets 60.6% Miami@N.Y. Jets
5 N.Y. Giants 56.0% N.Y. Giants@Washington
11 @Jacksonville 61.6% San Diego@Jacksonville
7 @Houston 58.9% New Orleans@Houston
16 Arizona 78.3% Arizona@San Francisco
12 @Seattle 63.0% Pittsburgh@Seattle
13 New England 64.3% New England@Denver
6 @Cleveland 57.2% Baltimore@Cleveland
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 81 89.18 136 52 to 121
YTD  
899  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on November 30, 2015 at 8:48 pm

2015 Confidence Picks Week 12

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Nov 242015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
1 Philadelphia 53.0% Philadelphia@Detroit
2 Carolina 54.2% Carolina@Dallas
15 @Green Bay 75.4% Chicago@Green Bay
4 @Atlanta 55.8% Minnesota@Atlanta
14 @Cincinnati 75.1% St. Louis@Cincinnati
3 Oakland 55.3% Oakland@Tennessee
8 @Indianapolis 58.9% Tampa Bay@Indianapolis
10 @Kansas City 61.1% Buffalo@Kansas City
9 @N.Y. Jets 60.6% Miami@N.Y. Jets
5 N.Y. Giants 56.0% N.Y. Giants@Washington
11 @Jacksonville 61.6% San Diego@Jacksonville
7 @Houston 58.9% New Orleans@Houston
16 Arizona 78.3% Arizona@San Francisco
12 @Seattle 63.0% Pittsburgh@Seattle
13 New England 64.3% New England@Denver
6 @Cleveland 57.2% Baltimore@Cleveland
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  89.18 136 52 to 121
YTD  
818  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on November 24, 2015 at 7:12 am

2015 NFL Week 11: 71 points

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Nov 232015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
6 @Jacksonville 58.5% Tennessee@Jacksonville
11 @Atlanta 67.8% Indianapolis@Atlanta
2 Denver 51.7% Denver@Chicago
5 Oakland 56.0% Oakland@Detroit
3 Dallas 53.0% Dallas@Miami
10 @Philadelphia 66.4% Tampa Bay@Philadelphia
13 @Carolina 71.2% Washington@Carolina
4 @Baltimore 55.6% St. Louis@Baltimore
7 N.Y. Jets 58.6% N.Y. Jets@Houston
9 Kansas City 58.9% Kansas City@San Diego
1 @Minnesota 50.3% Green Bay@Minnesota
14 @Seattle 82.8% San Francisco@Seattle
8 @Arizona 58.9% Cincinnati@Arizona
12 @New England 70.4% Buffalo@New England
       
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 71 64.49 105 39 to 95
YTD  
818  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on November 23, 2015 at 10:36 pm

2015 Confidence Picks Week 11

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Nov 172015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
6 @Jacksonville 58.5% Tennessee@Jacksonville
11 @Atlanta 67.8% Indianapolis@Atlanta
2 Denver 51.7% Denver@Chicago
5 Oakland 56.0% Oakland@Detroit
3 Dallas 53.0% Dallas@Miami
10 @Philadelphia 66.4% Tampa Bay@Philadelphia
13 @Carolina 71.2% Washington@Carolina
4 @Baltimore 55.6% St. Louis@Baltimore
7 N.Y. Jets 58.6% N.Y. Jets@Houston
9 Kansas City 58.9% Kansas City@San Diego
1 @Minnesota 50.3% Green Bay@Minnesota
14 @Seattle 82.8% San Francisco@Seattle
8 @Arizona 58.9% Cincinnati@Arizona
12 @New England 70.4% Buffalo@New England
       
       
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  64.49 105 39 to 95
YTD  
747  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on November 17, 2015 at 7:16 am

2015 NFL Week 10: 26 points

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Nov 162015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
3 @N.Y. Jets 58.1% Buffalo@N.Y. Jets
14 @Green Bay 80.9% Detroit@Green Bay
7 Carolina 63.8% Carolina@Tennessee
12 @St. Louis 72.1% Chicago@St. Louis
9 @Philadelphia 68.1% Miami@Philadelphia
6 @Pittsburgh 62.8% Cleveland@Pittsburgh
2 @Tampa Bay 54.5% Dallas@Tampa Bay
1 New Orleans 54.2% New Orleans@Washington
8 @Baltimore 66.6% Jacksonville@Baltimore
4 @Oakland 58.9% Minnesota@Oakland
10 @Denver 68.9% Kansas City@Denver
11 New England 71.0% New England@N.Y. Giants
5 @Seattle 58.9% Arizona@Seattle
13 @Cincinnati 79.4% Houston@Cincinnati
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
26 73.38 105 44 to 98
YTD  
747  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on November 16, 2015 at 10:32 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 10

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Nov 102015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
3 @N.Y. Jets 58.1% Buffalo@N.Y. Jets
14 @Green Bay 80.9% Detroit@Green Bay
7 Carolina 63.8% Carolina@Tennessee
12 @St. Louis 72.1% Chicago@St. Louis
9 @Philadelphia 68.1% Miami@Philadelphia
6 @Pittsburgh 62.8% Cleveland@Pittsburgh
2 @Tampa Bay 54.5% Dallas@Tampa Bay
1 New Orleans 54.2% New Orleans@Washington
8 @Baltimore 66.6% Jacksonville@Baltimore
4 @Oakland 58.9% Minnesota@Oakland
10 @Denver 68.9% Kansas City@Denver
11 New England 71.0% New England@N.Y. Giants
5 @Seattle 58.9% Arizona@Seattle
13 @Cincinnati 79.4% Houston@Cincinnati
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  73.38 105 44 to 98
YTD  
721  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on November 10, 2015 at 6:56 am

2015 NFL Week 9: 57 points

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Nov 102015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @Cincinnati 78.7% Cleveland@Cincinnati
10 @N.Y. Jets 66.0% Jacksonville@N.Y. Jets
3 @Minnesota 57.7% St. Louis@Minnesota
8 @Pittsburgh 63.6% Oakland@Pittsburgh
1 Green Bay 56.7% Green Bay@Carolina
13 @New England 85.2% Washington@New England
5 @Buffalo 58.9% Miami@Buffalo
11 @New Orleans 73.4% Tennessee@New Orleans
9 Atlanta 65.6% Atlanta@San Francisco
2 N.Y. Giants 56.8% N.Y. Giants@Tampa Bay
7 Denver 62.9% Denver@Indianapolis
4 Philadelphia 58.3% Philadelphia@Dallas
6 @San Diego 60.6% Chicago@San Diego
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 57 62.94 91 37 to 85
YTD  
721  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on November 10, 2015 at 6:39 am

2015 NFL Confidence Picks Week 9

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Nov 032015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @Cincinnati 78.7% Cleveland@Cincinnati
10 @N.Y. Jets 66.0% Jacksonville@N.Y. Jets
3 @Minnesota 57.7% St. Louis@Minnesota
8 @Pittsburgh 63.6% Oakland@Pittsburgh
1 Green Bay 56.7% Green Bay@Carolina
13 @New England 85.2% Washington@New England
5 @Buffalo 58.9% Miami@Buffalo
11 @New Orleans 73.4% Tennessee@New Orleans
9 Atlanta 65.6% Atlanta@San Francisco
2 N.Y. Giants 56.8% N.Y. Giants@Tampa Bay
7 Denver 62.9% Denver@Indianapolis
4 Philadelphia 58.3% Philadelphia@Dallas
6 @San Diego 60.6% Chicago@San Diego
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  62.94 91 37 to 85
YTD  
664  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on November 3, 2015 at 6:46 am

2015 NFL Week 8: 85 points

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Nov 022015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
13 @New England 71.4% Miami@New England
9 @Kansas City 67.2% Detroit@Kansas City
4 @Baltimore 58.9% San Diego@Baltimore
2 @Pittsburgh 55.7% Cincinnati@Pittsburgh
3 Minnesota 56.8% Minnesota@Chicago
7 @Houston 64.9% Tennessee@Houston
12 @Atlanta 70.8% Tampa Bay@Atlanta
8 Arizona 66.4% Arizona@Cleveland
6 @New Orleans 60.0% N.Y. Giants@New Orleans
14 @St. Louis 74.2% San Francisco@St. Louis
1 N.Y. Jets 55.2% N.Y. Jets@Oakland
10 Seattle 67.6% Seattle@Dallas
5 Green Bay 59.1% Green Bay@Denver
11 @Carolina 69.5% Indianapolis@Carolina
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
85  70.76 105 40 to 97
YTD  
664  

*Based on 100,000 simulated outcomes.

 Posted by on November 2, 2015 at 9:35 pm