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2015 Confidence Picks Week 17

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 Confidence Picks Week 17
Dec 292015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
7 @Atlanta 61.8% New Orleans@Atlanta
3 N.Y. Jets 58.9% N.Y. Jets@Buffalo
1 @Chicago 53.0% Detroit@Chicago
12 @Cincinnati 71.3% Baltimore@Cincinnati
15 Pittsburgh 77.6% Pittsburgh@Cleveland
2 @Dallas 58.9% Washington@Dallas
10 @Indianapolis 67.4% Tennessee@Indianapolis
14 New England 75.1% New England@Miami
4 @N.Y. Giants 59.2% Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants
9 @Houston 67.4% Jacksonville@Houston
13 @Denver 74.5% San Diego@Denver
11 @Kansas City 69.9% Oakland@Kansas City
8 @Arizona 63.0% Seattle@Arizona
6 St. Louis 60.6% St. Louis@San Francisco
16 @Carolina 78.9% Tampa Bay@Carolina
5 @Green Bay 59.7% Minnesota@Green Bay
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  95.32 136 60 to 126
YTD  
1,303  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 29, 2015 at 10:02 am

2015 NFL Week 16: 84 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 16: 84 points
Dec 292015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
9 @Oakland 65.2% San Diego@Oakland
4 @Philadelphia 59.9% Washington@Philadelphia
12 Carolina 70.3% Carolina@Atlanta
11 @Buffalo 67.8% Dallas@Buffalo
13 @Detroit 72.0% San Francisco@Detroit
7 Houston 63.0% Houston@Tennessee
15 @Kansas City 83.6% Cleveland@Kansas City
1 @Miami 56.0% Indianapolis@Miami
3 New England 59.8% New England@N.Y. Jets
2 @Tampa Bay 58.9% Chicago@Tampa Bay
14 Pittsburgh 78.8% Pittsburgh@Baltimore
6 @New Orleans 60.4% Jacksonville@New Orleans
8 @Arizona 63.0% Green Bay@Arizona
16 @Seattle 84.5% St. Louis@Seattle
10 @Minnesota 67.1% N.Y. Giants@Minnesota
5 @Denver 60.4% Cincinnati@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
84 96.95 136 62 to 126
YTD
1,303  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 29, 2015 at 9:55 am

2015 Confidence Picks Week 16

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 Confidence Picks Week 16
Dec 222015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
9 @Oakland 65.2% San Diego@Oakland
4 @Philadelphia 59.9% Washington@Philadelphia
12 Carolina 70.3% Carolina@Atlanta
11 @Buffalo 67.8% Dallas@Buffalo
13 @Detroit 72.0% San Francisco@Detroit
7 Houston 63.0% Houston@Tennessee
15 @Kansas City 83.6% Cleveland@Kansas City
1 @Miami 56.0% Indianapolis@Miami
3 New England 59.8% New England@N.Y. Jets
2 @Tampa Bay 58.9% Chicago@Tampa Bay
14 Pittsburgh 78.8% Pittsburgh@Baltimore
6 @New Orleans 60.4% Jacksonville@New Orleans
8 @Arizona 63.0% Green Bay@Arizona
16 @Seattle 84.5% St. Louis@Seattle
10 @Minnesota 67.1% N.Y. Giants@Minnesota
5 @Denver 60.4% Cincinnati@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  96.95 136 62 to 126
YTD  
1,219  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 22, 2015 at 7:31 am

2015 NFL Week 15: 123 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 15: 123 points
Dec 222015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
3 @St. Louis 50.8% Tampa Bay@St. Louis
7 N.Y. Jets 59.1% N.Y. Jets@Dallas
1 Houston 50.1% Houston@Indianapolis
12 @Minnesota 65.4% Chicago@Minnesota
15 @New England 85.7% Tennessee@New England
9 Carolina 59.9% Carolina@N.Y. Giants
2 @Washington 50.3% Buffalo@Washington
8 @Jacksonville 59.6% Atlanta@Jacksonville
14 Kansas City 71.7% Kansas City@Baltimore
6 Green Bay 58.9% Green Bay@Oakland
16 @Seattle 86.6% Cleveland@Seattle
13 @Pittsburgh 66.6% Denver@Pittsburgh
4 @San Diego 50.9% Miami@San Diego
11 Cincinnati 62.2% Cincinnati@San Francisco
10 Arizona 60.8% Arizona@Philadelphia
5 @New Orleans 58.9% Detroit@New Orleans
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
123 92.02 136 57 to 123
YTD 1,219  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

YTD W-L: 147-77

 Posted by on December 22, 2015 at 6:16 am

2015 Confidence Picks Week 15

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 Confidence Picks Week 15
Dec 152015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
3 @St. Louis 50.8% Tampa Bay@St. Louis
7 N.Y. Jets 59.1% N.Y. Jets@Dallas
1 Houston 50.1% Houston@Indianapolis
12 @Minnesota 65.4% Chicago@Minnesota
15 @New England 85.7% Tennessee@New England
9 Carolina 59.9% Carolina@N.Y. Giants
2 @Washington 50.3% Buffalo@Washington
8 @Jacksonville 59.6% Atlanta@Jacksonville
14 Kansas City 71.7% Kansas City@Baltimore
6 Green Bay 58.9% Green Bay@Oakland
16 @Seattle 86.6% Cleveland@Seattle
13 @Pittsburgh 66.6% Denver@Pittsburgh
4 @San Diego 50.9% Miami@San Diego
11 Cincinnati 62.2% Cincinnati@San Francisco
10 Arizona 60.8% Arizona@Philadelphia
5 @New Orleans 58.9% Detroit@New Orleans
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  92.02 136 57 to 123
YTD 1,096  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 15, 2015 at 5:40 am

2015 NFL Week 14: 97 points

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Dec 142015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @Arizona 71.4% Minnesota@Arizona
8 @Chicago 60.1% Washington@Chicago
6 @Cincinnati 58.9% Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
5 @Cleveland 53.0% San Francisco@Cleveland
16 @Kansas City 77.9% San Diego@Kansas City
3 @St. Louis 52.5% Detroit@St. Louis
10 @N.Y. Jets 70.9% Tennessee@N.Y. Jets
2 Buffalo 50.0% Buffalo@Philadelphia
9 @Tampa Bay 61.3% New Orleans@Tampa Bay
13 @Carolina 71.6% Atlanta@Carolina
1 @Jacksonville 50.0% Indianapolis@Jacksonville
15 Seattle 75.1% Seattle@Baltimore
14 @Denver 71.6% Oakland@Denver
11 @Green Bay 71.1% Dallas@Green Bay
7 New England 59.9% New England@Houston
4 N.Y. Giants 53.0% N.Y. Giants@Miami
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 97 92.43 136 56 to 124
YTD  
1,096  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 14, 2015 at 9:58 pm

2015 Confidence Picks Week 14

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 Confidence Picks Week 14
Dec 082015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @Arizona 71.4% Minnesota@Arizona
8 @Chicago 60.1% Washington@Chicago
6 @Cincinnati 58.9% Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
5 @Cleveland 53.0% San Francisco@Cleveland
16 @Kansas City 77.9% San Diego@Kansas City
3 @St. Louis 52.5% Detroit@St. Louis
10 @N.Y. Jets 70.9% Tennessee@N.Y. Jets
2 Buffalo 50.0% Buffalo@Philadelphia
9 @Tampa Bay 61.3% New Orleans@Tampa Bay
13 @Carolina 71.6% Atlanta@Carolina
1 @Jacksonville 50.0% Indianapolis@Jacksonville
15 Seattle 75.1% Seattle@Baltimore
14 @Denver 71.6% Oakland@Denver
11 @Green Bay 71.1% Dallas@Green Bay
7 New England 59.9% New England@Houston
4 N.Y. Giants 53.0% N.Y. Giants@Miami
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  92.43 136 56 to 124
YTD  
999  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 8, 2015 at 9:18 am

2015 NFL Week 13: 100 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Week 13: 100 points
Dec 072015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
6 Green Bay 58.9% Green Bay@Detroit
7 @Buffalo 58.9% Houston@Buffalo
12 @Chicago 69.9% San Francisco@Chicago
13 Cincinnati 70.1% Cincinnati@Cleveland
4 @Tennessee 57.5% Jacksonville@Tennessee
11 Arizona 66.6% Arizona@St. Louis
10 @Miami 64.6% Baltimore@Miami
1 Seattle 53.0% Seattle@Minnesota
2 N.Y. Jets 55.2% N.Y. Jets@N.Y. Giants
3 @Tampa Bay 56.4% Atlanta@Tampa Bay
5 Kansas City 58.7% Kansas City@Oakland
9 Denver 63.2% Denver@San Diego
16 @New England 76.3% Philadelphia@New England
14 Carolina 70.3% Carolina@New Orleans
15 @Pittsburgh 70.7% Indianapolis@Pittsburgh
8 @Washington 62.6% Dallas@Washington
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  90.85 136 54 to 123
YTD  
999  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 7, 2015 at 10:28 pm

2015 Confidence Picks Week 13

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 Confidence Picks Week 13
Dec 012015
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
6 Green Bay 58.9% Green Bay@Detroit
7 @Buffalo 58.9% Houston@Buffalo
12 @Chicago 69.9% San Francisco@Chicago
13 Cincinnati 70.1% Cincinnati@Cleveland
4 @Tennessee 57.5% Jacksonville@Tennessee
11 Arizona 66.6% Arizona@St. Louis
10 @Miami 64.6% Baltimore@Miami
1 Seattle 53.0% Seattle@Minnesota
2 N.Y. Jets 55.2% N.Y. Jets@N.Y. Giants
3 @Tampa Bay 56.4% Atlanta@Tampa Bay
5 Kansas City 58.7% Kansas City@Oakland
9 Denver 63.2% Denver@San Diego
16 @New England 76.3% Philadelphia@New England
14 Carolina 70.3% Carolina@New Orleans
15 @Pittsburgh 70.7% Indianapolis@Pittsburgh
8 @Washington 62.6% Dallas@Washington
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
  90.85 136 54 to 123
YTD  
899  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on December 1, 2015 at 8:35 am