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2016 Conference Round: 24 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 Conference Round: 24 points
Jan 232017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
8 @Atlanta 62.7% 8
16 @New England 65.1% 16
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,530 15.4 24 24
 Posted by on January 23, 2017 at 10:35 am

2016 NFL Divisional Round: 28 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Divisional Round: 28 points
Jan 152017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
12 @Atlanta 62.3% 12
16 @New England 88.1% 16
8 @Kansas City 52.7% 0
4 @Dallas 61.8% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,506 28.6 40 28
 Posted by on January 15, 2017 at 9:50 pm

2016 Confidence Picks: Divisional Round

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks: Divisional Round
Jan 092017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
12 @Atlanta 62.3% Seattle@Atlanta
16 @New England 88.1% Houston@New England
4 @Kansas City 52.7% Pittsburgh@Kansas City
8 @Dallas 61.8% Green Bay@Dallas
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,478 28.6 40 4 to 40

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 9, 2017 at 9:36 am

2016 NFL Wildcard Round: 40 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Wildcard Round: 40 points
Jan 092017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
4 @Houston 58.9% 4
12 @Seattle 71.7% 12
16 @Pittsburgh 76.3% 16
8 @Green Bay 62.3% 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,478 28.1 40 40
 Posted by on January 9, 2017 at 8:26 am

2016 Confidence Picks Wildcard Round

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Wildcard Round
Jan 022017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
4 @Houston 58.9% Oakland@Houston
12 @Seattle 71.7% Detroit@Seattle
16 @Pittsburgh 76.3% Miami@Pittsburgh
8 @Green Bay 62.3% N.Y. Giants@Green Bay
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,438 28.1 40 4 to 40

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 2, 2017 at 9:40 am

2016 NFL Week 17: 113 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 17: 113 points
Jan 022017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
3 @Cincinnati 57.5% 3
5 @Tennessee 58.9% 5
8 @Indianapolis 65.3% 8
15 New England 73.6% 15
10 @Minnesota 66.4% 10
7 Buffalo 64.5% 0
2 Dallas 50.4% 0
14 @Pittsburgh 72.9% 14
9 @Tampa Bay 65.8% 9
12 @Atlanta 68.9% 12
4 @Denver 58.2% 4
11 Arizona 68.6% 11
6 Kansas City 62.9% 6
16 Seattle 75.9% 16
13 @Washington 70.2% 0
1 @Detroit 50.3% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,438 92.9 136 113
 Posted by on January 2, 2017 at 9:20 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 17

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 17
Dec 272016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
3 @Cincinnati 57.5% Baltimore@Cincinnati
5 @Tennessee 58.9% Houston@Tennessee
8 @Indianapolis 65.3% Jacksonville@Indianapolis
15 New England 73.6% New England@Miami
10 @Minnesota 66.4% Chicago@Minnesota
7 Buffalo 64.5% Buffalo@N.Y. Jets
2 Dallas 50.4% Dallas@Philadelphia
14 @Pittsburgh 72.9% Cleveland@Pittsburgh
9 @Tampa Bay 65.8% Carolina@Tampa Bay
12 @Atlanta 68.9% New Orleans@Atlanta
4 @Denver 58.2% Oakland@Denver
11 Arizona 68.6% Arizona@Los Angeles
6 Kansas City 62.9% Kansas City@San Diego
16 Seattle 75.9% Seattle@San Francisco
13 @Washington 70.2% N.Y. Giants@Washington
1 @Detroit 50.3% Green Bay@Detroit
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,325 92.9 136 56 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 27, 2016 at 7:21 am

2016 NFL Week 16: 81 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 16: 81 points
Dec 262016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
3 N.Y. Giants 57.9% 0
8 @Buffalo 60.7% 0
4 Washington 58.6% 4
12 San Diego 67.8% 0
14 @Green Bay 69.1% 14
16 @New England 88.4% 16
1 Atlanta 51.4% 1
11 Tennessee 62.2% 0
7 @Oakland 60.4% 7
6 @Los Angeles 59.9% 0
5 @New Orleans 59.4% 5
15 @Seattle 71.9% 0
2 @Houston 56.0% 2
9 @Pittsburgh 60.8% 9
10 @Kansas City 61.4% 10
13 @Dallas 67.8% 13
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,325 91.4 136 81
 Posted by on December 26, 2016 at 10:10 pm