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2016 Confidence Picks Week 4

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 4
Sep 272016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
13 @Cincinnati 67.8% Miami@Cincinnati
1 Indianapolis 52.3% Indianapolis@Jacksonville
7 Carolina 58.1% Carolina@Atlanta
3 Detroit 56.1% Detroit@Chicago
4 @New England 56.1% Buffalo@New England
2 Seattle 54.2% Seattle@N.Y. Jets
14 @Washington 68.5% Cleveland@Washington
8 @Baltimore 58.7% Oakland@Baltimore
12 @Houston 64.8% Tennessee@Houston
6 Denver 58.0% Denver@Tampa Bay
15 @Arizona 69.9% Los Angeles@Arizona
10 @San Diego 60.2% New Orleans@San Diego
5 Dallas 56.4% Dallas@San Francisco
11 @Pittsburgh 63.2% Kansas City@Pittsburgh
9 @Minnesota 60.1% N.Y. Giants@Minnesota
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
252 75.67 120 41 to 106

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on September 27, 2016 at 1:41 pm

2016 NFL Week 3: 67 Points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 3: 67 Points
Sep 262016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
2 Houston 53.0% 0
10 Arizona 61.6% 0
7 @Cincinnati 58.4% 0
14 @Green Bay 69.2% 14
3 @Tennessee 53.2% 0
15 @Miami 71.3% 15
9 @N.Y. Giants 61.1% 0
13 @Carolina 67.5% 0
1 Baltimore 51.9% 1
16 @Seattle 73.8% 16
11 @Tampa Bay 62.5% 0
4 @Indianapolis 57.1% 4
5 @Kansas City 58.3% 5
8 Pittsburgh 60.5% 0
12 @Dallas 65.0% 12
6 @New Orleans 58.3% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
252 88.1 136 67
 Posted by on September 26, 2016 at 8:39 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 3

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 3
Sep 202016
 

Updated Sept. 21, 12:45p PDT

Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
2 Houston 53.0% Houston@New England
10 Arizona 61.6% Arizona@Buffalo
7 @Cincinnati 58.4% Denver@Cincinnati
14 @Green Bay 69.2% Detroit@Green Bay
3 @Tennessee 53.2% Oakland@Tennessee
15 @Miami 71.3% Cleveland@Miami
9 @N.Y. Giants 61.1% Washington@N.Y. Giants
13 @Carolina 67.5% Minnesota@Carolina
1 Baltimore 51.9% Baltimore@Jacksonville
16 @Seattle 73.8% San Francisco@Seattle
11 @Tampa Bay 62.5% Los Angeles@Tampa Bay
4 @Indianapolis 57.1% San Diego@Indianapolis
5 @Kansas City 58.3% N.Y. Jets@Kansas City
8 Pittsburgh 60.5% Pittsburgh@Philadelphia
12 @Dallas 65.0% Chicago@Dallas
6 @New Orleans 58.3% Atlanta@New Orleans
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
185 88.1 136 51 to 121
 Posted by on September 20, 2016 at 6:10 am

2016 NFL Week 2: 92 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 2: 92 points
Sep 192016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
1 @Buffalo 52.7% 0
10 Baltimore 63.2% 10
13 @Detroit 64.5% 0
14 @New England 65.1% 14
9 @N.Y. Giants 61.2% 9
8 @Pittsburgh 58.8% 8
7 @Washington 57.7% 0
16 @Carolina 80.0% 16
2 @Houston 55.7% 2
4 Seattle 56.4% 0
15 @Arizona 67.2% 15
12 @Denver 63.9% 12
11 @Oakland 63.5% 0
6 @San Diego 57.5% 6
3 Green Bay 56.4% 0
5 @Chicago 56.7% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
185 87.46 136 92
 Posted by on September 19, 2016 at 8:19 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 2

 2016, Confidence pool, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 2
Sep 132016
 

Updated 9/13 8:28pm PDT

Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
1 @Buffalo 52.7% N.Y. Jets@Buffalo
10 Baltimore 63.2% Baltimore@Cleveland
13 @Detroit 64.5% Tennessee@Detroit
14 @New England 65.1% Miami@New England
9 @N.Y. Giants 61.2% New Orleans@N.Y. Giants
8 @Pittsburgh 58.8% Cincinnati@Pittsburgh
7 @Washington 57.7% Dallas@Washington
16 @Carolina 80.0% San Francisco@Carolina
2 @Houston 55.7% Kansas City@Houston
4 Seattle 56.4% Seattle@Los Angeles
15 @Arizona 67.2% Tampa Bay@Arizona
12 @Denver 63.9% Indianapolis@Denver
11 @Oakland 63.5% Atlanta@Oakland
6 @San Diego 57.5% Jacksonville@San Diego
3 Green Bay 56.4% Green Bay@Minnesota
5 @Chicago 56.7% Philadelphia@Chicago
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
93 87.46 136 50 to 121


*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on September 13, 2016 at 7:23 am

2016 NFL Week 1: 93 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 1: 93 points
Sep 132016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
5 Carolina 56.3% 0
8 @Atlanta 58.9% 0
3 Minnesota 55.5% 3
15 @Kansas City 70.1% 15
1 @New Orleans 53.2% 0
4 Cincinnati 56.0% 4
14 @Philadelphia 67.7% 14
12 Green Bay 63.0% 12
7 @Baltimore 58.5% 7
13 @Houston 66.5% 13
16 @Seattle 76.0% 16
2 @Dallas 55.1% 0
11 @Indianapolis 62.9% 0
10 @Arizona 62.0% 0
9 Pittsburgh 59.3% 9
6 Los Angeles 57.0% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
93 87.38 136 93


*Based on 100,000 simulations

 Posted by on September 13, 2016 at 6:23 am