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2016 NFL Week 8: 63 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 8: 63 points
Oct 312016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
9 @Tennessee 59.27% 9
7 @Cincinnati 57.17% 0
13 New England 64.53% 13
3 N.Y. Jets 54.51% 3
6 Kansas City 56.66% 6
8 Seattle 57.61% 0
1 @Tampa Bay 53.55% 0
4 @Carolina 54.57% 4
2 @Houston 54.08% 2
11 @Denver 61.85% 11
5 @Atlanta 56.52% 5
10 @Dallas 61.75% 10
12 Minnesota 64.45% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
620 54.7 91 63
 Posted by on October 31, 2016 at 8:45 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 8

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 8
Oct 252016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
9 @Tennessee 59.27% Jacksonville@Tennessee
7 @Cincinnati 57.17% Washington@Cincinnati
13 New England 64.53% New England@Buffalo
3 N.Y. Jets 54.51% N.Y. Jets@Cleveland
6 Kansas City 56.66% Kansas City@Indianapolis
8 Seattle 57.61% Seattle@New Orleans
1 @Tampa Bay 53.55% Oakland@Tampa Bay
4 @Carolina 54.57% Arizona@Carolina
2 @Houston 54.08% Detroit@Houston
11 @Denver 61.85% San Diego@Denver
5 @Atlanta 56.52% Green Bay@Atlanta
10 @Dallas 61.75% Philadelphia@Dallas
12 Minnesota 64.45% Minnesota@Chicago
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
557 54.7 91 26 to 80

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 25, 2016 at 5:39 am

2016 NFL Week 7: 79 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 7: 79 points
Oct 242016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
14 @Green Bay 72.60% 14
9 N.Y. Giants 56.70% 9
15 @Cincinnati 74.00% 15
4 @Detroit 52.50% 4
7 @Tennessee 55.90% 0
12 @Kansas City 67.50% 12
8 Buffalo 56.60% 0
1 Baltimore 50.60% 0
6 Minnesota 55.80% 0
5 @Jacksonville 53.20% 0
11 @Atlanta 66.00% 0
2 Tampa Bay 52.50% 2
10 New England 63.70% 10
3 @Arizona 52.50% 0
13 @Denver 67.90% 13
       
YTD Expected Possible Actual
557 76.6 120 79
 Posted by on October 24, 2016 at 9:13 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 7

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 7
Oct 182016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
14 @Green Bay 72.60% Chicago@Green Bay
9 N.Y. Giants 56.70% N.Y. Giants@Los Angeles
15 @Cincinnati 74.00% Cleveland@Cincinnati
4 @Detroit 52.50% Washington@Detroit
7 @Tennessee 55.90% Indianapolis@Tennessee
12 @Kansas City 67.50% New Orleans@Kansas City
8 Buffalo 56.60% Buffalo@Miami
1 Baltimore 50.60% Baltimore@N.Y. Jets
6 Minnesota 55.80% Minnesota@Philadelphia
5 @Jacksonville 53.20% Oakland@Jacksonville
11 @Atlanta 66.00% San Diego@Atlanta
2 Tampa Bay 52.50% Tampa Bay@San Francisco
10 New England 63.70% New England@Pittsburgh
3 @Arizona 52.50% Seattle@Arizona
13 @Denver 67.90% Houston@Denver
       
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
478 76.6 120 42 to 106

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 18, 2016 at 6:19 am

2016 NFL Week 6: 82 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 6: 82 points
Oct 182016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
6 Denver 57.6% 0
14 @Buffalo 69.7% 14
4 @Chicago 55.9% 0
5 @Detroit 57.4% 5
11 @Tennessee 66.8% 11
13 Pittsburgh 68.3% 0
15 @New England 71.1% 15
3 Carolina 55.2% 0
7 @N.Y. Giants 57.8% 7
1 Philadelphia 52.9% 0
2 @Oakland 53.5% 0
9 @Green Bay 61.0% 0
10 @Seattle 66.2% 10
8 @Houston 57.9% 8
12 @Arizona 68.2% 12
       
YTD Expected Possible Actual
478 77.4 120 82
 Posted by on October 18, 2016 at 6:14 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 6

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 6
Oct 112016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
6 Denver 57.6% Denver@San Diego
14 @Buffalo 69.7% San Francisco@Buffalo
4 @Chicago 55.9% Jacksonville@Chicago
5 @Detroit 57.4% Los Angeles@Detroit
11 @Tennessee 66.8% Cleveland@Tennessee
13 Pittsburgh 68.3% Pittsburgh@Miami
15 @New England 71.1% Cincinnati@New England
3 Carolina 55.2% Carolina@New Orleans
7 @N.Y. Giants 57.8% Baltimore@N.Y. Giants
1 Philadelphia 52.9% Philadelphia@Washington
2 @Oakland 53.5% Kansas City@Oakland
9 @Green Bay 61.0% Dallas@Green Bay
10 @Seattle 66.2% Atlanta@Seattle
8 @Houston 57.9% Indianapolis@Houston
12 @Arizona 68.2% N.Y. Jets@Arizona
       
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
396 77.4 120 43 to 107

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 11, 2016 at 9:34 am

2016 NFL Week 5: 72 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 5: 72 points
Oct 112016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
7 Arizona 59.2% 7
14 New England 73.7% 14
3 Philadelphia 55.4% 0
9 @Indianapolis 61.9% 9
6 @Miami 59.2% 0
10 @Minnesota 65.5% 10
12 @Pittsburgh 67.4% 12
8 @Baltimore 59.8% 0
11 @Denver 65.5% 0
1 Cincinnati 50.3% 0
5 @Oakland 58.6% 5
4 @Los Angeles 56.5% 0
13 @Green Bay 67.6% 13
2 Tampa Bay 50.3% 2
      0
       
YTD Expected Possible Actual
396 67.4 105 72
 Posted by on October 11, 2016 at 8:48 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 5

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 5
Oct 042016
 

Updated Oct. 5, 6:05a PDT

Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
7 Arizona 59.2% Arizona@San Francisco
14 New England 73.7% New England@Cleveland
3 Philadelphia 55.4% Philadelphia@Detroit
9 @Indianapolis 61.9% Chicago@Indianapolis
6 @Miami 59.2% Tennessee@Miami
10 @Minnesota 65.5% Houston@Minnesota
12 @Pittsburgh 67.4% N.Y. Jets@Pittsburgh
8 @Baltimore 59.8% Washington@Baltimore
11 @Denver 65.5% Atlanta@Denver
1 Cincinnati 50.3% Cincinnati@Dallas
5 @Oakland 58.6% San Diego@Oakland
4 @Los Angeles 56.5% Buffalo@Los Angeles
13 @Green Bay 67.6% N.Y. Giants@Green Bay
2 Tampa Bay 50.3% Tampa Bay@Carolina
       
       
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
324 67.4 105 41 to 106

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 4, 2016 at 6:22 am

2016 NFL Week 4: 72 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 4: 72 points
Oct 042016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
13 @Cincinnati 67.8% 13
1 Indianapolis 52.3% 0
7 Carolina 58.1% 0
3 Detroit 56.1% 0
4 @New England 56.1% 0
2 Seattle 54.2% 2
14 @Washington 68.5% 14
8 @Baltimore 58.7% 0
12 @Houston 64.8% 12
6 Denver 58.0% 6
15 @Arizona 69.9% 0
10 @San Diego 60.2% 0
5 Dallas 56.4% 5
11 @Pittsburgh 63.2% 11
9 @Minnesota 60.1% 9
       
YTD Expected Possible Actual
324 75.64 120 72
 Posted by on October 4, 2016 at 6:12 am