/* ]]> */

2016 Confidence Picks Week 13

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 13
Nov 292016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
6 Dallas 59.5% Dallas@Minnesota
9 @Atlanta 61.5% Kansas City@Atlanta
4 @Chicago 57.9% San Francisco@Chicago
2 Philadelphia 54.3% Philadelphia@Cincinnati
8 @Green Bay 60.0% Houston@Green Bay
15 @New England 83.9% Los Angeles@New England
12 @New Orleans 64.9% Detroit@New Orleans
11 Denver 63.9% Denver@Jacksonville
7 @Baltimore 59.6% Miami@Baltimore
5 @Oakland 58.9% Buffalo@Oakland
3 @Arizona 57.8% Washington@Arizona
13 @Pittsburgh 66.7% N.Y. Giants@Pittsburgh
10 @San Diego 61.7% Tampa Bay@San Diego
14 @Seattle 69.4% Carolina@Seattle
1 Indianapolis 51.40% Indianapolis@N.Y. Jets
       
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
939 78.6 120 45 to 108

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 29, 2016 at 7:04 am

2016 NFL Week 12: 115 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 12: 115 points
Nov 282016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
2 @Detroit 56.6% 2
10 @Dallas 67.7% 10
11 Pittsburgh 67.9% 11
8 @Atlanta 62.1% 8
14 @Buffalo 71.0% 14
3 Tennessee 59.4% 3
13 N.Y. Giants 70.1% 13
15 @Miami 71.4% 15
12 @New Orleans 69.7% 12
6 @Baltimore 60.8% 6
1 San Diego 53.2% 1
9 Seattle 67.0% 0
4 @Oakland 59.8% 4
16 New England 72.0% 16
5 @Denver 60.0% 0
7 @Philadelphia 61.0% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
939 91.6 136 115
 Posted by on November 28, 2016 at 9:15 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 12 – Updated

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 12 – Updated
Nov 222016
 

Revised mostly due to Andrew Luck injury news, 11/24/2016 9:16a PST

Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
2 @Detroit 56.6% Minnesota@Detroit
10 @Dallas 67.7% Washington@Dallas
11 Pittsburgh 67.9% Pittsburgh@Indianapolis
8 @Atlanta 62.1% Arizona@Atlanta
14 @Buffalo 71.0% Jacksonville@Buffalo
3 Tennessee 59.4% Tennessee@Chicago
13 N.Y. Giants 70.1% N.Y. Giants@Cleveland
15 @Miami 71.4% San Francisco@Miami
12 @New Orleans 69.7% Los Angeles@New Orleans
6 @Baltimore 60.8% Cincinnati@Baltimore
1 San Diego 53.2% San Diego@Houston
9 Seattle 67.0% Seattle@Tampa Bay
4 @Oakland 59.8% Carolina@Oakland
16 New England 72.0% New England@N.Y. Jets
5 @Denver 60.00% Kansas City@Denver
7 @Philadelphia 61.0% Green Bay@Philadelphia
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
824 91.6 136 54 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 22, 2016 at 6:39 am

2016 NFL Week 11: 86 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 11: 86 points
Nov 222016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
7 @Carolina 60.1% 7
2 @Cincinnati 51.1% 0
13 Pittsburgh 75.8% 13
11 @Dallas 70.1% 11
10 @Detroit 69.2% 10
6 @Indianapolis 58.9% 6
12 @Kansas City 71.1% 0
1 Arizona 50.7% 0
3 @N.Y. Giants 51.9% 3
4 @Los Angeles 52.1% 0
14 New England 84.2% 14
9 @Seattle 66.8% 9
5 @Washington 57.5% 5
8 @Oakland 66.36% 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
824 71.9 105 86
 Posted by on November 22, 2016 at 6:34 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 11

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 11
Nov 152016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
7 @Carolina 60.1% New Orleans@Carolina
2 @Cincinnati 51.1% Buffalo@Cincinnati
13 Pittsburgh 75.8% Pittsburgh@Cleveland
11 @Dallas 70.1% Baltimore@Dallas
10 @Detroit 69.2% Jacksonville@Detroit
6 @Indianapolis 58.9% Tennessee@Indianapolis
12 @Kansas City 71.1% Tampa Bay@Kansas City
1 Arizona 50.7% Arizona@Minnesota
3 @N.Y. Giants 51.9% Chicago@N.Y. Giants
4 @Los Angeles 52.1% Miami@Los Angeles
14 New England 84.2% New England@San Francisco
9 @Seattle 66.8% Philadelphia@Seattle
5 @Washington 57.5% Green Bay@Washington
8 @Oakland 66.4% Houston@Oakland
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
738 71.9 105 42 to 97

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 15, 2016 at 7:34 am

2016 NFL Week 10: 46 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 10: 46 points
Nov 142016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
13 @Baltimore 76.0% 13
6 Green Bay 56.2% 0
4 @New Orleans 54.0% 0
7 @N.Y. Jets 56.6% 0
3 @Philadelphia 52.5% 3
1 @Tampa Bay 52.1% 1
8 @Washington 57.1% 8
10 @Carolina 58.5% 0
2 Houston 52.2% 2
11 @San Diego 60.1% 0
14 @Arizona 82.9% 14
9 @Pittsburgh 57.6% 0
12 @New England 65.1% 0
5 @N.Y. Giants 55.80% 5
YTD Expected Possible Actual
738 64.1 105 46
 Posted by on November 14, 2016 at 10:14 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 10

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 10
Nov 082016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
13 @Baltimore 76.0% Cleveland@Baltimore
6 Green Bay 56.2% Green Bay@Tennessee
4 @New Orleans 54.0% Denver@New Orleans
7 @N.Y. Jets 56.6% Los Angeles@N.Y. Jets
3 @Philadelphia 52.5% Atlanta@Philadelphia
1 @Tampa Bay 52.1% Chicago@Tampa Bay
8 @Washington 57.1% Minnesota@Washington
10 @Carolina 58.5% Kansas City@Carolina
2 Houston 52.2% Houston@Jacksonville
11 @San Diego 60.1% Miami@San Diego
14 @Arizona 82.9% San Francisco@Arizona
9 @Pittsburgh 57.6% Dallas@Pittsburgh
12 @New England 65.1% Seattle@New England
5 @N.Y. Giants 55.80% Cincinnati@N.Y. Giants
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
692 66.9 105 37 to 94

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 8, 2016 at 6:41 am

2016 NFL Week 9: 72 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 9: 72 points
Nov 072016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
6 Atlanta 58.63% 6
12 Dallas 69.77% 12
13 @Kansas City 72.26% 13
7 @Miami 59.10% 7
8 @Minnesota 60.58% 0
2 @N.Y. Giants 57.30% 2
3 @Baltimore 57.40% 3
4 Carolina 57.55% 4
5 New Orleans 58.12% 5
11 @Green Bay 67.66% 0
9 @San Diego 62.75% 9
1 @Oakland 52.59% 1
10 @Seattle 66.99% 10
YTD Expected Possible Actual
692 58.7 91 72
 Posted by on November 7, 2016 at 10:05 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 9

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 9
Nov 012016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
6 Atlanta 58.6% Atlanta@Tampa Bay
12 Dallas 69.8% Dallas@Cleveland
13 @Kansas City 72.3% Jacksonville@Kansas City
7 @Miami 59.1% N.Y. Jets@Miami
8 @Minnesota 60.6% Detroit@Minnesota
2 @N.Y. Giants 57.3% Philadelphia@N.Y. Giants
3 @Baltimore 57.4% Pittsburgh@Baltimore
4 Carolina 57.6% Carolina@Los Angeles
5 New Orleans 58.1% New Orleans@San Francisco
11 @Green Bay 67.7% Indianapolis@Green Bay
9 @San Diego 62.8% Tennessee@San Diego
1 @Oakland 52.6% Denver@Oakland
10 @Seattle 67.0% Buffalo@Seattle
       
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
620 58.7 91 31 to 83

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 1, 2016 at 10:27 am