/* ]]> */

2016 Confidence Picks Week 17

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 17
Dec 272016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
3 @Cincinnati 57.5% Baltimore@Cincinnati
5 @Tennessee 58.9% Houston@Tennessee
8 @Indianapolis 65.3% Jacksonville@Indianapolis
15 New England 73.6% New England@Miami
10 @Minnesota 66.4% Chicago@Minnesota
7 Buffalo 64.5% Buffalo@N.Y. Jets
2 Dallas 50.4% Dallas@Philadelphia
14 @Pittsburgh 72.9% Cleveland@Pittsburgh
9 @Tampa Bay 65.8% Carolina@Tampa Bay
12 @Atlanta 68.9% New Orleans@Atlanta
4 @Denver 58.2% Oakland@Denver
11 Arizona 68.6% Arizona@Los Angeles
6 Kansas City 62.9% Kansas City@San Diego
16 Seattle 75.9% Seattle@San Francisco
13 @Washington 70.2% N.Y. Giants@Washington
1 @Detroit 50.3% Green Bay@Detroit
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,325 92.9 136 56 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 27, 2016 at 7:21 am

2016 NFL Week 16: 81 points

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 16: 81 points
Dec 262016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
3 N.Y. Giants 57.9% 0
8 @Buffalo 60.7% 0
4 Washington 58.6% 4
12 San Diego 67.8% 0
14 @Green Bay 69.1% 14
16 @New England 88.4% 16
1 Atlanta 51.4% 1
11 Tennessee 62.2% 0
7 @Oakland 60.4% 7
6 @Los Angeles 59.9% 0
5 @New Orleans 59.4% 5
15 @Seattle 71.9% 0
2 @Houston 56.0% 2
9 @Pittsburgh 60.8% 9
10 @Kansas City 61.4% 10
13 @Dallas 67.8% 13
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,325 91.4 136 81
 Posted by on December 26, 2016 at 10:10 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 16

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 16
Dec 202016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
3 N.Y. Giants 57.9% N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia
8 @Buffalo 60.7% Miami@Buffalo
4 Washington 58.6% Washington@Chicago
12 San Diego 67.8% San Diego@Cleveland
14 @Green Bay 69.1% Minnesota@Green Bay
16 @New England 88.4% N.Y. Jets@New England
1 Atlanta 51.4% Atlanta@Carolina
11 Tennessee 62.2% Tennessee@Jacksonville
7 @Oakland 60.4% Indianapolis@Oakland
6 @Los Angeles 59.9% San Francisco@Los Angeles
5 @New Orleans 59.4% Tampa Bay@New Orleans
15 @Seattle 71.9% Arizona@Seattle
2 @Houston 56.0% Cincinnati@Houston
9 @Pittsburgh 60.8% Baltimore@Pittsburgh
10 @Kansas City 61.4% Denver@Kansas City
13 @Dallas 67.8% Detroit@Dallas
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,244 91.4 136 55 to 123

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 20, 2016 at 6:56 am

2016 NFL Week 15: 112 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 15: 112 points
Dec 192016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
16 @Seattle 85.7% 16
1 Miami 56.3% 1
14 @Buffalo 77.3% 14
12 Green Bay 67.4% 12
4 Pittsburgh 58.9% 4
9 @Kansas City 66.2% 0
6 @Minnesota 61.8% 0
8 @N.Y. Giants 63.7% 8
10 @Baltimore 67.0% 10
11 @Houston 67.0% 11
15 @Atlanta 83.1% 15
2 @Arizona 57.1% 0
5 New England 58.9% 5
3 Oakland 58.3% 3
13 @Dallas 70.5% 13
7 @Washington 63.1% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,244 96.2 136 112
 Posted by on December 19, 2016 at 10:39 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 15

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 15
Dec 132016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
16 @Seattle 85.7% Los Angeles@Seattle
1 Miami 56.3% Miami@N.Y. Jets
14 @Buffalo 77.3% Cleveland@Buffalo
12 Green Bay 67.4% Green Bay@Chicago
4 Pittsburgh 58.9% Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
9 @Kansas City 66.2% Tennessee@Kansas City
6 @Minnesota 61.8% Indianapolis@Minnesota
8 @N.Y. Giants 63.7% Detroit@N.Y. Giants
10 @Baltimore 67.0% Philadelphia@Baltimore
11 @Houston 67.0% Jacksonville@Houston
15 @Atlanta 83.1% San Francisco@Atlanta
2 @Arizona 57.1% New Orleans@Arizona
5 New England 58.9% New England@Denver
3 Oakland 58.3% Oakland@San Diego
13 @Dallas 70.5% Tampa Bay@Dallas
7 @Washington 63.1% Carolina@Washington
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,132 96.2 136 61 to 126

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 13, 2016 at 9:28 am

2016 NFL Week 14: 106 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 14: 106 points
Dec 122016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
10 @Kansas City 57.9% 10
6 Pittsburgh 54.8% 6
13 Cincinnati 63.2% 13
16 @Detroit 70.6% 16
3 @Tennessee 51.9% 3
12 @Indianapolis 62.1% 0
5 @Miami 54.2% 5
1 Washington 51.3% 1
4 @Carolina 53.1% 4
11 Minnesota 58.8% 11
2 @San Francisco 51.7% 0
7 Seattle 57.1% 0
14 Atlanta 64.9% 14
8 @Tampa Bay 57.1% 8
9 Dallas 57.8% 0
15 @New England 68.8% 15
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,131 83.6 136 106
 Posted by on December 12, 2016 at 9:58 pm

2016 Confidence Picks Week 14

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 14
Dec 062016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
10 @Kansas City 57.9% Oakland@Kansas City
6 Pittsburgh 54.8% Pittsburgh@Buffalo
13 Cincinnati 63.2% Cincinnati@Cleveland
16 @Detroit 70.6% Chicago@Detroit
3 @Tennessee 51.9% Denver@Tennessee
12 @Indianapolis 62.1% Houston@Indianapolis
5 @Miami 54.2% Arizona@Miami
1 Washington 51.3% Washington@Philadelphia
4 @Carolina 53.1% San Diego@Carolina
11 Minnesota 58.8% Minnesota@Jacksonville
2 @San Francisco 51.7% N.Y. Jets@San Francisco
7 Seattle 57.1% Seattle@Green Bay
14 Atlanta 64.9% Atlanta@Los Angeles
8 @Tampa Bay 57.1% New Orleans@Tampa Bay
9 Dallas 57.8% Dallas@N.Y. Giants
15 @New England 68.8% Baltimore@New England
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,026 83.6 136 46 to 118

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 6, 2016 at 8:37 am

2016 NFL Week 13: 87 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 13: 87 points
Dec 052016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
6 Dallas 59.5% 6
9 @Atlanta 61.5% 0
4 @Chicago 57.9% 4
2 Philadelphia 54.3% 0
8 @Green Bay 60.0% 8
15 @New England 83.9% 15
12 @New Orleans 64.9% 0
11 Denver 63.9% 11
7 @Baltimore 59.6% 7
5 @Oakland 58.9% 5
3 @Arizona 57.8% 3
13 @Pittsburgh 66.7% 13
10 @San Diego 61.7% 0
14 @Seattle 69.4% 14
1 Indianapolis 51.40% 1
       
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,026 78.6 120 87
 Posted by on December 5, 2016 at 10:02 pm