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2016 Conference Round: 24 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 Conference Round: 24 points
Jan 232017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
8 @Atlanta 62.7% 8
16 @New England 65.1% 16
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,530 15.4 24 24
 Posted by on January 23, 2017 at 10:35 am

2016 NFL Divisional Round: 28 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Divisional Round: 28 points
Jan 152017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
12 @Atlanta 62.3% 12
16 @New England 88.1% 16
8 @Kansas City 52.7% 0
4 @Dallas 61.8% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,506 28.6 40 28
 Posted by on January 15, 2017 at 9:50 pm

2016 Confidence Picks: Divisional Round

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks: Divisional Round
Jan 092017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
12 @Atlanta 62.3% Seattle@Atlanta
16 @New England 88.1% Houston@New England
4 @Kansas City 52.7% Pittsburgh@Kansas City
8 @Dallas 61.8% Green Bay@Dallas
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,478 28.6 40 4 to 40

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 9, 2017 at 9:36 am

2016 NFL Wildcard Round: 40 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Wildcard Round: 40 points
Jan 092017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
4 @Houston 58.9% 4
12 @Seattle 71.7% 12
16 @Pittsburgh 76.3% 16
8 @Green Bay 62.3% 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,478 28.1 40 40
 Posted by on January 9, 2017 at 8:26 am

2016 Confidence Picks Wildcard Round

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Wildcard Round
Jan 022017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
4 @Houston 58.9% Oakland@Houston
12 @Seattle 71.7% Detroit@Seattle
16 @Pittsburgh 76.3% Miami@Pittsburgh
8 @Green Bay 62.3% N.Y. Giants@Green Bay
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,438 28.1 40 4 to 40

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 2, 2017 at 9:40 am

2016 NFL Week 17: 113 points

 2016, NFL, Results  Comments Off on 2016 NFL Week 17: 113 points
Jan 022017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
3 @Cincinnati 57.5% 3
5 @Tennessee 58.9% 5
8 @Indianapolis 65.3% 8
15 New England 73.6% 15
10 @Minnesota 66.4% 10
7 Buffalo 64.5% 0
2 Dallas 50.4% 0
14 @Pittsburgh 72.9% 14
9 @Tampa Bay 65.8% 9
12 @Atlanta 68.9% 12
4 @Denver 58.2% 4
11 Arizona 68.6% 11
6 Kansas City 62.9% 6
16 Seattle 75.9% 16
13 @Washington 70.2% 0
1 @Detroit 50.3% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,438 92.9 136 113
 Posted by on January 2, 2017 at 9:20 am