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2017 Confidence Picks Week 4

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Sep 262017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
12 @ GB 70.9%  CHI @ GB
4  NO 55.2%  NO @ MIA
13 @ DAL 72.7%  LAR @ DAL
9  JAC 62.4%  JAC @ NYJ
1 @ MIN 50.0%  DET @ MIN
14 @ ATL 73.3%  BUF @ ATL
7  CIN 58.2%  CIN @ CLE
15 @ NE 74.1%  CAR @ NE
6  PIT 57.7%  PIT @ BAL
5  TEN 56.6%  TEN @ HOU
2 @ LAC 52.7%  PHI @ LAC
8 @ TB 60.9%  NYG @ TB
10 @ ARI 68.3%  SF @ ARI
3 @ DEN 52.7%  OAK @ DEN
16 @ SEA 81.7%  IND @ SEA
11 @ KC 70.0%  WAS @ KC
YTD Expected Possible 95% conf. interval*
281 93.1 136 57 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on September 26, 2017 at 10:18 am

2017 NFL Week 3: 73 points

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Sep 262017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
4 L.A. Rams 0.57 4
10 Baltimore 0.61 0
16 @New England 0.82 16
11 Miami 0.62 0
1 @Minnesota 0.5 1
12 @Philadelphia 0.63 12
5 Denver 0.57 0
13 @Carolina 0.67 0
14 Pittsburgh 0.71 0
2 Cleveland 0.53 0
6 Atlanta 0.58 6
3 @Tennessee 0.54 3
7 Kansas City 0.58 7
15 @Green Bay 0.74 15
8 Oakland 0.58 0
9 Dallas 0.59 9
YTD Expected Possible Actual
281 89.2 136 73
 Posted by on September 26, 2017 at 10:14 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 3

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Sep 192017
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
4 L.A. Rams 56.8% L.A. Rams@San Francisco
10 Baltimore 60.7% Baltimore@Jacksonville
16 @New England 82.3% Houston@New England
11 Miami 62.4% Miami@N.Y. Jets
1 @Minnesota 50.3% Tampa Bay@Minnesota
12 @Philadelphia 63.1% N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia
5 Denver 57.0% Denver@Buffalo
13 @Carolina 66.8% New Orleans@Carolina
14 Pittsburgh 70.6% Pittsburgh@Chicago
2 Cleveland 52.5% Cleveland@Indianapolis
6 Atlanta 57.9% Atlanta@Detroit
3 @Tennessee 53.5% Seattle@Tennessee
7 Kansas City 58.4% Kansas City@L.A. Chargers
15 @Green Bay 73.8% Cincinnati@Green Bay
8 Oakland 58.4% Oakland@Washington
9 Dallas 59.4% Dallas@Arizona
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
208 89.2 136 53 to 121

*Based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on September 19, 2017 at 9:09 am

2017 NFL Week 2: 114 points

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Sep 192017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
8 @Cincinnati 62.9% 0
10 New England 64.4% 10
9 @Pittsburgh 63.6% 9
7 @Kansas City 62.8% 7
11 @Tampa Bay 67.7% 11
14 @Baltimore 73.0% 14
12 @Carolina 67.9% 12
3 Tennessee 54.5% 3
13 Arizona 70.9% 13
15 @Oakland 82.2% 15
5 @L.A. Chargers 57.0% 0
16 @Seattle 84.0% 16
2 Dallas 54.1% 0
1 @L.A. Rams 53.5% 0
4 @Atlanta 56.1% 4
6 @N.Y. Giants 59.6% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
208 94.3 136 114
 Posted by on September 19, 2017 at 8:55 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 2

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Sep 122017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
8 @Cincinnati 0.63 Houston@Cincinnati
10 New England 0.64 New England@New Orleans
9 @Pittsburgh 0.64 Minnesota@Pittsburgh
7 @Kansas City 0.63 Philadelphia@Kansas City
11 @Tampa Bay 0.68 Chicago@Tampa Bay
14 @Baltimore 0.73 Cleveland@Baltimore
12 @Carolina 0.68 Buffalo@Carolina
3 Tennessee 0.54 Tennessee@Jacksonville
13 Arizona 0.71 Arizona@Indianapolis
15 @Oakland 0.82 N.Y. Jets@Oakland
5 @L.A. Chargers 0.57 Miami@L.A. Chargers
16 @Seattle 0.84 San Francisco@Seattle
2 Dallas 0.54 Dallas@Denver
1 @L.A. Rams 0.53 Washington@L.A. Rams
4 @Atlanta 0.56 Green Bay@Atlanta
6 @N.Y. Giants 0.6 Detroit@N.Y. Giants
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
94 94.3 136 58 to 124

*Based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on September 12, 2017 at 6:59 am

2017 NFL Week 1: 94 points

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Sep 122017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
4 @Detroit 56.8% 4
14 Atlanta 69.2% 14
3 @Cincinnati 56.0% 0
11 Carolina 64.3% 11
7 Indianapolis 59.7% 0
10 @Houston 61.4% 0
15 @New England 70.9% 0
9 @Denver 60.9% 9
12 @Dallas 65.3% 12
13 @Buffalo 67.9% 13
8 @Minnesota 60.1% 8
1 Oakland 52.0% 1
5 @Washington 57.0% 0
16 Pittsburgh 74.7% 16
6 @Green Bay 58.9% 6
2 @Miami 54.7% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
94 88.6 136 94
 Posted by on September 12, 2017 at 5:53 am