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2017 Confidence Picks Week 7

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Oct 172017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
3  KC 0.587  KC @ OAK
2 @ BUF 0.530  TB @ BUF
6  CAR 0.601  CAR @ CHI
14  TEN 0.693  TEN @ CLE
9  NO 0.626  NO @ GB
4  JAC 0.589  JAC @ IND
7 @ LAR 0.603  ARI @ LAR
5 @ MIA 0.600  NYJ @ MIA
11 @ MIN 0.650  BAL @ MIN
10  DAL 0.645  DAL @ SF
15  SEA 0.704  SEA @ NYG
13 @ PIT 0.667  CIN @ PIT
1  DEN 0.505  DEN @ LAC
8 @ NE 0.611  ATL @ NE
12 @ PHI 0.660  WAS @ PHI
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
451 77.5 120 43 to 108

* based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 17, 2017 at 6:35 am

2017 NFL Week 6: 43 points

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Oct 162017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
6 @ CAR 0.591 0
9 @ BAL 0.695 0
7  GB 0.600 0
12 @ ATL 0.778 0
5 @ NO 0.579 5
14 @ HOU 0.803 14
11  NE 0.763 11
10 @ WAS 0.760 10
2 @ ARI 0.502 2
4 @ JAC 0.576 0
8 @ KC 0.606 0
3 @ OAK 0.529 0
13 @ DEN 0.779 0
1 @ TEN 0.500 1
YTD Expected Possible Actual
451 73.84 105 43
 Posted by on October 16, 2017 at 8:57 pm

2017 Confidence Picks Week 6

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Oct 112017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
6 @ CAR 0.591  PHI @ CAR
9 @ BAL 0.695  CHI @ BAL
7  GB 0.600  GB @ MIN
12 @ ATL 0.778  MIA @ ATL
5 @ NO 0.579  DET @ NO
14 @ HOU 0.803  CLE @ HOU
11  NE 0.763  NE @ NYJ
10 @ WAS 0.760  SF @ WAS
2 @ ARI 0.502  TB @ ARI
4 @ JAC 0.576  LAR @ JAC
8 @ KC 0.606  PIT @ KC
3 @ OAK 0.529  LAC @ OAK
13 @ DEN 0.779  NYG @ DEN
1 @ TEN 0.500 IND @ TEN
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
408 64.8 105 45 to 98

* based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 11, 2017 at 9:47 am

2017 NFL Week 5: 50 points

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Oct 112017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
12  NE 0.630 12
4 @ CLE 0.562 0
14 @ PIT 0.748 0
10 @ CIN 0.598 10
3  TEN 0.550 0
5 @ IND 0.565 5
13 @ PHI 0.687 13
11 @ NYG 0.614 0
7 @ DET 0.590 0
1 @ LAR 0.517 0
9 @ OAK 0.594 0
6 @ DAL 0.568 0
2  KC 0.545 2
8  MIN 0.590 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
408 65.63 105 50
 Posted by on October 11, 2017 at 9:32 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 5 (revised)

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Oct 032017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
12  NE 0.630  NE @ TB
4 @ CLE 0.562  NYJ @ CLE
14 @ PIT 0.748  JAC @ PIT
10 @ CIN 0.598  BUF @ CIN
3  TEN 0.550  TEN @ MIA
5 @ IND 0.565  SF @ IND
13 @ PHI 0.687  ARI @ PHI
11 @ NYG 0.614  LAC @ NYG
7 @ DET 0.590  CAR @ DET
1 @ LAR 0.517  SEA @ LAR
9 @ OAK 0.594  BAL @ OAK
6 @ DAL 0.568  GB @ DAL
2  KC 0.545  KC @ HOU
8  MIN 0.590  MIN @ CHI
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
358 65.6 105 35 to 93

*Based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 3, 2017 at 7:01 am

2017 NFL Week 4: 77 points

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Oct 032017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
12 @ GB 0.71 12
4  NO 0.55 4
13 @ DAL 0.73 0
9  JAC 0.62 0
1 @ MIN 0.5 0
14 @ ATL 0.73 0
7  CIN 0.58 7
15 @ NE 0.74 0
6  PIT 0.58 6
5  TEN 0.57 0
2 @ LAC 0.53 0
8 @ TB 0.61 8
10 @ ARI 0.68 10
3 @ DEN 0.53 3
16 @ SEA 0.82 16
11 @ KC 0.7 11
YTD Expected Possible Actual
358 93.1 136 77
 Posted by on October 3, 2017 at 6:15 am