/* ]]> */

2017 Confidence Picks Week 17

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 17
Dec 262017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
14 @ MIN 0.798  CHI @ MIN
16 @ NE 0.845  NYJ @ NE
4  WAS 0.578  WAS @ NYG
3  DAL 0.563  DAL @ PHI
15 @ PIT 0.805  CLE @ PIT
11 @ DET 0.712  GB @ DET
2 @ IND 0.561  HOU @ IND
1  BUF 0.560  BUF @ MIA
6 @ ATL 0.620  CAR @ ATL
10  NO 0.701  NO @ TB
7 @ TEN 0.639  JAC @ TEN
13 @ BAL 0.762  CIN @ BAL
8 @ SEA 0.678  ARI @ SEA
5 @ DEN 0.580  KC @ DEN
12 @ LAC 0.729  OAK @ LAC
9 @ LAR 0.680  SF @ LAR
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,430 98.6 136 64 to 127

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 26, 2017 at 11:15 am

2017 NFL Week 16: 124 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 16: 124 points
Dec 252017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
16 @ BAL 0.833 16
1  MIN 0.500 1
4  DET 0.618 0
14 @ KC 0.776 14
15 @ NE 0.797 15
9 @ CHI 0.688 9
12 @ CAR 0.767 12
7 @ NO 0.670 7
10  LAC 0.700 10
8  LAR 0.688 8
3 @ WAS 0.612 3
6  JAC 0.640 0
2 @ DAL 0.599 0
5 @ ARI 0.636 5
13  PIT 0.773 13
11 @ PHI 0.752 11
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,430 100.1 136 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 25, 2017 at 10:05 pm

2017 Confidence Picks Week 16

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 16
Dec 192017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
16 @ BAL 0.833  IND @ BAL
1  MIN 0.500  MIN @ GB
4  DET 0.618  DET @ CIN
14 @ KC 0.776  MIA @ KC
15 @ NE 0.797  BUF @ NE
9 @ CHI 0.688  CLE @ CHI
12 @ CAR 0.767  TB @ CAR
7 @ NO 0.670  ATL @ NO
10  LAC 0.700  LAC @ NYJ
8  LAR 0.688  LAR @ TEN
3 @ WAS 0.612  DEN @ WAS
6  JAC 0.640  JAC @ SF
2 @ DAL 0.599  SEA @ DAL
5 @ ARI 0.636  NYG @ ARI
13  PIT 0.773  PIT @ HOU
11 @ PHI 0.752  OAK @ PHI
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,306 100.1 136 65 to 129

* based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 19, 2017 at 9:56 am

2017 NFL Week 15: 131 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 15: 131 points
Dec 192017
 

12/20/2017: Corrected to reflect @ KC victory

Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
7  DEN 0.583 7
11 @ DET 0.679 11
2 @ KC 0.508 2
12  BAL 0.701 12
5 @ CAR 0.549 5
14 @ MIN 0.780 14
16 @ NO 0.881 16
15 @ JAC 0.793 15
13  PHI 0.748 13
9 @ WAS 0.613 9
1  MIA 0.500 0
4 @ SEA 0.536 0
3 @ SF 0.520 3
6  NE 0.573 6
8  DAL 0.589 8
10  ATL 0.637 10
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,306 94.6 136 131

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 19, 2017 at 6:35 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 15

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 15
Dec 122017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
7  DEN 0.583  DEN @ IND
11 @ DET 0.679  CHI @ DET
2 @ KC 0.508  LAC @ KC
12  BAL 0.701  BAL @ CLE
5 @ CAR 0.549  GB @ CAR
14 @ MIN 0.780  CIN @ MIN
16 @ NO 0.881  NYJ @ NO
15 @ JAC 0.793  HOU @ JAC
13  PHI 0.748  PHI @ NYG
9 @ WAS 0.613  ARI @ WAS
1  MIA 0.500  MIA @ BUF
4 @ SEA 0.536  LAR @ SEA
3 @ SF 0.520  TEN @ SF
6  NE 0.573  NE @ PIT
8  DAL 0.589  DAL @ OAK
10  ATL 0.637  ATL @ TB
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,175 94.6 136 60 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 12, 2017 at 9:14 am

2017 NFL Week 14: 74 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 14: 74 points
Dec 122017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
8  NO 0.594 0
1 @ TB 0.500 0
10 @ KC 0.618 10
13  GB 0.683 13
5  MIN 0.528 0
14 @ CIN 0.696 0
7 @ HOU 0.586 0
2  IND 0.500 0
11  DAL 0.659 11
3 @ DEN 0.507 3
6  TEN 0.579 0
12 @ LAC 0.676 12
9 @ JAC 0.599 9
4 @ LAR 0.521 0
15 @ PIT 0.696 15
16  NE 0.798 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,175 102.3 136 73

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 12, 2017 at 9:13 am

Revised! 2017 Confidence Picks Week 14

 NFL  Comments Off on Revised! 2017 Confidence Picks Week 14
Dec 052017
 

 

Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
8  NO 0.594  NO @ ATL
1 @ TB 0.500  DET @ TB
10 @ KC 0.618  OAK @ KC
13  GB 0.683  GB @ CLE
5  MIN 0.528  MIN @ CAR
14 @ CIN 0.696  CHI @ CIN
7 @ HOU 0.586  SF @ HOU
2  IND 0.500  IND @ BUF
11  DAL 0.659  DAL @ NYG
3 @ DEN 0.507  NYJ @ DEN
6  TEN 0.579  TEN @ ARI
12 @ LAC 0.676  WAS @ LAC
9 @ JAC 0.599  SEA @ JAC
4 @ LAR 0.521  PHI @ LAR
15 @ PIT 0.696  BAL @ PIT
16  NE 0.798  NE @ MIA
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,102 88.8 136 52 to 121

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 5, 2017 at 10:51 am

2017 NFL Week 13: 106 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 13: 106 points
Dec 052017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
3 @ DAL 0.558 3
7  KC 0.610 0
2 @ MIA 0.510 2
14  NE 0.745 14
12 @ TEN 0.701 12
5 @ ATL 0.588 0
1  TB 0.500 0
8 @ CHI 0.643 0
15 @ JAC 0.748 15
4 @ BAL 0.588 4
16 @ LAC 0.840 16
6 @ NO 0.608 6
13 @ OAK 0.711 13
11  LAR 0.684 11
9  PHI 0.667 0
10  PIT 0.679 10
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,102 102.3 136 106

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 5, 2017 at 7:44 am