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2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 7

 2014, College football, College Pick 'Em, Confidence pool, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 7
Oct 062014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Brigham Young@Central Florida @Central Florida 58.30%
Washington State@Stanford @Stanford 86.54%
San Diego State@New Mexico San Diego State 64.16%
Fresno State@UNLV Fresno State 77.58%
Tulsa@Temple @Temple 82.52%
Illinois@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 93.92%
Texas@Oklahoma @Oklahoma 82.52%
Florida State@Syracuse Florida State 91.69%
Indiana@Iowa @Iowa 66.84%
Middle Tennessee@Marshall @Marshall 91.73%
West Virginia@Texas Tech West Virginia 60.18%
Rice@Army Rice 75.96%
Cincinnati@Miami @Miami 80.76%
Georgia@Missouri Georgia 57.67%
Northwestern@Minnesota @Minnesota 57.67%
UL Monroe@Kentucky @Kentucky 90.70%
Duke@Georgia Tech @Georgia Tech 62.04%
Buffalo@Eastern Michigan Buffalo 81.67%
Massachusetts@Kent State @Kent State 53.85%
Bowling Green@Ohio Bowling Green 50.00%
Arkansas State@Georgia State Arkansas State 79.92%
Miami (Ohio)@Akron @Akron 81.25%
New Mexico State@Troy @Troy 68.58%
Western Michigan@Ball State @Ball State 57.67%
Toledo@Iowa State @Iowa State 63.86%
Auburn@Mississippi State Auburn 57.36%
Liberty@Appalachian State Liberty 65.61%
Louisville@Clemson @Clemson 76.53%
Texas Christian@Baylor @Baylor 75.35%
Michigan State@Purdue Michigan State 92.89%
North Carolina@Notre Dame @Notre Dame 85.27%
VMI@Navy @Navy 97.50%
Oregon@UCLA Oregon 58.30%
North Texas@Alabama-Birmingham @Alabama-Birmingham 58.93%
Boston College@North Carolina State @North Carolina State 60.80%
Chattanooga@Tennessee @Tennessee 84.49%
Oklahoma State@Kansas Oklahoma State 90.43%
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois @Northern Illinois 75.09%
Alabama@Arkansas Alabama 73.00%
Washington@California @California 53.21%
Idaho@Georgia Southern @Georgia Southern 91.95%
Houston@Memphis @Memphis 66.82%
Florida International@Texas-San Antonio @Texas-San Antonio 80.59%
East Carolina@South Florida East Carolina 82.10%
Penn State@Michigan @Michigan 53.53%
Charleston Southern@Vanderbilt @Vanderbilt 78.53%
Louisiana State@Florida Louisiana State 53.21%
Old Dominion@Texas El Paso @Texas El Paso 56.41%
Connecticut@Tulane @Tulane 58.93%
Mississippi@Texas A&M @Texas A&M 57.04%
Air Force@Utah State @Utah State 71.93%
Colorado State@Nevada Colorado State 52.57%
Southern California@Arizona Southern California 57.04%
Wyoming@Hawaii @Hawaii 56.41%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on October 6, 2014 at 8:14 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 5

 2014, College football, College Pick 'Em, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 5
Sep 232014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Texas Tech@Oklahoma State @Oklahoma State 81.53%
Appalachian State@Georgia Southern @Georgia Southern 87.17%
UCLA@Arizona State UCLA 62.44%
Fresno State@New Mexico Fresno State 64.06%
Middle Tennessee@Old Dominion @Old Dominion 57.46%
Texas Christian@Southern Methodist Texas Christian 98.07%
Iowa@Purdue Iowa 73.88%
South Florida@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 98.51%
Texas El Paso@Kansas State @Kansas State 95.33%
Tennessee@Georgia @Georgia 86.12%
Vanderbilt@Kentucky @Kentucky 86.36%
Wyoming@Michigan State @Michigan State 97.70%
Northwestern@Penn State @Penn State 75.43%
Tulane@Rutgers @Rutgers 77.58%
Colorado State@Boston College @Boston College 67.42%
Western Michigan@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 91.56%
Army@Yale Army 80.81%
Akron@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 90.06%
Maryland@Indiana @Indiana 61.42%
Eastern Illinois@Ohio Eastern Illinois 53.85%
Bowling Green@Massachusetts Bowling Green 61.42%
Western Kentucky@Navy @Navy 67.42%
Miami (Ohio)@Buffalo @Buffalo 62.65%
Florida International@Alabama-Birmingham @Alabama-Birmingham 85.88%
Kent State@Virginia @Virginia 95.88%
Minnesota@Michigan @Michigan 77.25%
Florida State@North Carolina State Florida State 89.18%
Wake Forest@Louisville @Louisville 91.39%
Arkansas@Texas A&M @Texas A&M 70.82%
Temple@Connecticut Temple 61.63%
Louisiana Tech@Auburn @Auburn 98.26%
Texas@Kansas Texas 81.25%
Colorado@California @California 80.66%
Stanford@Washington Stanford 68.95%
Texas-San Antonio@Florida Atlantic Texas-San Antonio 62.65%
South Alabama@Idaho South Alabama 63.25%
Cincinnati@Ohio State @Ohio State 84.26%
Central Michigan@Toledo @Toledo 82.66%
Missouri@South Carolina @South Carolina 63.46%
North Carolina@Clemson @Clemson 82.24%
Boise State@Air Force Boise State 79.77%
Troy@UL Monroe @UL Monroe 80.07%
Rice@Southern Mississippi Rice 73.18%
Duke@Miami @Miami 67.42%
Memphis@Mississippi @Mississippi 89.28%
New Mexico State@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 99.71%
Washington State@Utah @Utah 79.15%
Texas State@Tulsa @Tulsa 61.42%
Baylor@Iowa State Baylor 91.39%
UNLV@San Diego State @San Diego State 84.64%
Notre Dame@Syracuse Notre Dame 78.68%
Illinois@Nebraska @Nebraska 90.06%
Oregon State@Southern California @Southern California 72.29%
Nevada@San Jose State Nevada 62.65%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on September 23, 2014 at 1:48 pm

College

 College Pick 'Em  Comments Off on College
Aug 252014
 
2015 March Madness - Regret minimizing bracket
Tournament Pool Size Widget
2015 March Madness - Expected Survival Rates
2015 March Madness - Most Likely Bracket
2014 College FB Bowls
2014 College FB Week 15
2014 College FB Week 14
2014 College FB Week 13
2014 College FB Week 12
2014 College FB Week 11
2014 College FB Week 10
2014 College FB Week 9
2014 College FB Week 8
2014 College FB Week 7
2014 College FB Week 6
2014 College FB Week 5
2014 College FB Week 4
2014 College FB Week 3
2014 College FB Week 2
2014 College FB Week 1
2014 March Madness
2013-2014 College Football Bowls
 Posted by on August 25, 2014 at 9:12 pm

College pools

 College Pick 'Em  Comments Off on College pools
Dec 212013
 
2015 March Madness - Regret minimizing bracket
Tournament Pool Size Widget
2015 March Madness - Expected Survival Rates
2015 March Madness - Most Likely Bracket
2014 College FB Bowls
2014 College FB Week 15
2014 College FB Week 14
2014 College FB Week 13
2014 College FB Week 12
2014 College FB Week 11
2014 College FB Week 10
2014 College FB Week 9
2014 College FB Week 8
2014 College FB Week 7
2014 College FB Week 6
2014 College FB Week 5
2014 College FB Week 4
2014 College FB Week 3
2014 College FB Week 2
2014 College FB Week 1
2014 March Madness
2013-2014 College Football Bowls
 Posted by on December 21, 2013 at 8:36 am

Did ESPN read WinThatPool? Evidence from College Bowl Mania

 College Pick 'Em, Confidence pool  Comments Off on Did ESPN read WinThatPool? Evidence from College Bowl Mania
Dec 152013
 

Judging by how ESPN revised its College Bowl Mania, perhaps the answer is YES.

If you pay attention to the distribution of fans’ picks on College Bowl confidence pool sites, it is obvious that a lot of entrants simply acquiesce to the order of games as they first encounter the slate of games. No matter which team people pick to win each game, a significant number of them don’t bother switching their confidence ranking from the default. As a result, the site’s initial confidence rank is the strongest determinant for the average fan confidence ranks on each game.

I wrote about this in 2010, and that the order chosen by ESPN was OPPOSITE the order a smart webmaster would have chosen. With 35 games, for several years Yahoo has listed its games in reverse chronological order, with the BCS Championship Game listed at 35 points, and the earliest game listed at 1 point. Assuming a bunch of lazy or brain-dead entrants who acquiesce to these default ranks, this makes for more excitement as the bowl season progresses for Yahoo, potentially making for the last game to have a great deal of leverage in determining the group winner. At the time, ESPN listed its games in chronological order, almost ensuring that nobody would need to visit their ESPN group’s page much after New Year’s Day because the eventual champion was already determined.

It looks like ESPN has wised up. Its 2013 College Bowl Mania has the BCS Championship Game listed with 35 points, just like Yahoo.

 Posted by on December 15, 2013 at 5:27 pm

Play in a College confidence pool? Drop your weight on the Colorado game to the minimum

 College Pick 'Em, NCAA football  Comments Off on Play in a College confidence pool? Drop your weight on the Colorado game to the minimum
Sep 132013
 

Due to the flooding in Boulder, the Fresno State at Colorado game, originally scheduled for tomorrow, has been postponed.

If you play in a college confidence pool and the rules allow you to change the ranks of games that have not started, drop your rank on this game to the lowest weight possible. Nobody will get a point for this game so there’s no use wasting your ranking budget.

fresno-state-at-colorado

 Posted by on September 13, 2013 at 7:33 pm

Why FB Office Pool Web Traffic Won’t Flock to ESPN.com on Jan. 10

 College Pick 'Em, Confidence pool, Office pool  Comments Off on Why FB Office Pool Web Traffic Won’t Flock to ESPN.com on Jan. 10
Dec 082010
 

Having played in football pools for several seasons on a lot of the big sites, I’ve noticed fan picks are all the same.  If you glance at the percentages of fans who pick one team or the other, most of the time there isn’t much difference between ESPN and Yahoo.  Doesn’t matter whether it’s NFL, NCAA BB, or NCAA FB.  Fans playing online pools mostly pick the same way.

The College Bowl season brings the spotlight on one glaring difference between ESPN’s and Yahoo’s respective College Bowl pools.  That glaring difference is what Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein call a “nudge.

First, the similarity.  Last year I wrote that the rank correlation between ESPN’s and Yahoo’s fan pick percentages on all 68 teams was 0.99.  Pretty much indistinguishable.

Now for the nudge.  I don’t know whether this was intentional on Yahoo’s part, but it certainly was mindless on ESPN’s part.  If you visit the pool site for Yahoo, you’ll see the games listed in reverse chronological order, and the default confidence picks are descending as well.  In other words, if all you do is pick the winners without bothering to re-sort the games according to your confidence, your picks will be back-ended.  Most of your point opportunities won’t come until after the New Year.  In fact, the final 11 games (starting with the 3rd game on Jan 1) count for over half your points opportunity.

Switch over to ESPN and you’ll see the opposite.  Here the games are listed in chronological order, but the default confidence points are in reverse-chronological order — so the default pick set is front-loaded.  Say you don’t bother re-ordering your picks on ESPN, then half your points opportunity is spent by the 11th game, Dec. 28.

You’re probably wondering “who doesn’t re-order the games?”  The answer:  more than you’d think.  Just watch as the pick distributions fill in, just how high the average confidence is for ESPN fans on the New Mexico Bowl between Brigham Young and UTEP.  A pair of forgettable 6-6 teams probably won’t fetch more than an average confidence of 4 on Yahoo, but I bet they’ll both be 20 or over on ESPN.

So what does this have to do with web traffic?  A lot of Yahoo players will still be in the running in January, and they’ll be visiting the pool site with regularity to check the standings.  Not so for ESPN.  Sure, fans will visit the ESPN site in general like they always do, but it won’t be to see how their College Bowl picks are faring, because it will already have been decided.

 Posted by on December 8, 2010 at 11:09 pm  Tagged with:
Nov 162009
 

Last week the predictions were for 44 points and 3 upsets and the results were 42 points and 3 upsets.

This week looks to shape up quite similarly

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
10 Ohio St 82.4% Michigan
9 BYU 78.4% Air Force
8 Georgia 73.6% Kentucky
7 Stanford 72.3% California
6 Oklahoma 69.1% Texas Tech
5 Notre Dame 68.3% Connecticut
4 Oregon 66.3% Arizona
3 Mississippi 61.0% LSU
2 Boston College 61.0% North Carolina
1 Penn State 59.0% Michigan St

Expected Points 40
Likely range 26 to 54
Probability of zero upsets 2.36%

Predicted Upset Distribution
#Upsets Probability
0 2%
1 11%
2 22%
3 27%
4 21%
5 11%
6 4%
7 1%
8 0%
9 0%
10 0%

 Posted by on November 16, 2009 at 8:54 pm