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A reader asks: Why can your Win Probabilities be so different from the Money Lines’?

 Confidence pool, money line, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on A reader asks: Why can your Win Probabilities be so different from the Money Lines’?
Sep 182013
 

Specifically, the reader was referring to this week’s upcoming Sunday night game, Chicago @ Pittsburgh. Presently, money Line probabilities imply Chicago’s probability to be 57% to 59%, while WinThatPool’s NFL Confidence Picks for Week 3 state Pittsburgh has a win probability of 51%.

The answer has two parts.

1. WinThatPool does not pay attention to money lines.

2. WinThatPool’s probabilities were published Tuesday at 10:00a Eastern. At that time few sports books had posted lines on this game; WinThatPool’s Win Probabilities reflect available information at that time. This is why all WinThatPool’s confidence pool picks end with this disclaimer:

Win Probabilities could have changed since being posted.
Note the date/time stamp of this post.

 

(P.S. WinThatPool typically will not re-estimate Win Probabilities once published.)

 Posted by on September 18, 2013 at 8:58 am