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2014 College Football win probabilities – Bowl Season

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Bowl Season
Dec 162014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Nevada@UL Lafayette Nevada 52.57%
Utah State@Texas El Paso Utah State 74.58%
Utah@Colorado State Utah 58.93%
Western Michigan@Air Force @Air Force 53.85%
South Alabama@Bowling Green South Alabama 57.67%
Brigham Young@Memphis @Memphis 53.00%
Marshall@Northern Illinois Marshall 73.35%
Navy@San Diego State @San Diego State 57.67%
Central Michigan@Western Kentucky @Western Kentucky 59.77%
Fresno State@Rice @Rice 55.35%
Illinois@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 65.07%
Rutgers@North Carolina @North Carolina 57.88%
North Carolina State@Central Florida @Central Florida 55.13%
Cincinnati@Virginia Tech Cincinnati 57.67%
Arizona State@Duke Arizona State 68.58%
Miami@South Carolina Miami 57.67%
Boston College@Penn State Boston College 56.83%
Nebraska@Southern California @Southern California 66.84%
Texas A&M@West Virginia @West Virginia 58.93%
Oklahoma@Clemson Oklahoma 57.67%
Arkansas@Texas Arkansas 65.46%
Notre Dame@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 68.19%
Georgia@Louisville Georgia 67.03%
Maryland@Stanford @Stanford 81.68%
Mississippi@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 58.30%
Boise State@Arizona @Arizona 58.93%
Mississippi State@Georgia Tech Mississippi State 67.03%
Auburn@Wisconsin Auburn 66.45%
Michigan State@Baylor @Baylor 57.67%
Missouri@Minnesota Missouri 63.66%
Florida State@Oregon @Oregon 72.82%
Ohio State@Alabama @Alabama 72.82%
Houston@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 57.67%
Iowa@Tennessee @Tennessee 58.93%
Kansas State@UCLA Kansas State 52.57%
Washington@Oklahoma State Washington 63.66%
East Carolina@Florida @Florida 68.00%
Toledo@Arkansas State Toledo 57.67%

 

 Posted by on December 16, 2014 at 4:07 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 10

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 10
Oct 282014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Florida State@Louisville Florida State 59.76%
Troy@Georgia Southern @Georgia Southern 95.31%
Cincinnati@Tulane Cincinnati 60.80%
Tulsa@Memphis @Memphis 94.05%
Air Force@Army Air Force 58.93%
Rice@Florida International Rice 65.26%
Northwestern@Iowa @Iowa 60.18%
Oklahoma@Iowa State Oklahoma 85.52%
Wisconsin@Rutgers Wisconsin 76.10%
Maryland@Penn State @Penn State 58.93%
East Carolina@Temple East Carolina 68.19%
Duke@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 59.77%
Central Florida@Connecticut Central Florida 77.58%
UL Monroe@Texas A&M @Texas A&M 98.25%
Boston College@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 57.67%
North Carolina@Miami @Miami 86.36%
Washington@Colorado Washington 60.60%
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 85.65%
Western Michigan@Miami (Ohio) Western Michigan 66.45%
Western Kentucky@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 67.23%
North Carolina State@Syracuse @Syracuse 58.51%
Georgia State@Appalachian State @Appalachian State 74.92%
Virginia@Georgia Tech @Georgia Tech 58.93%
Texas Christian@West Virginia Texas Christian 64.06%
Brigham Young@Middle Tennessee Brigham Young 58.93%
Florida@Georgia @Georgia 80.06%
Indiana@Michigan @Michigan 67.42%
Purdue@Nebraska @Nebraska 93.53%
Kansas@Baylor @Baylor 99.00%
Texas State@New Mexico State Texas State 68.77%
Kentucky@Missouri @Missouri 66.05%
Houston@South Florida Houston 73.53%
Southern California@Washington State Southern California 66.84%
Arkansas State@Idaho Arkansas State 82.52%
South Alabama@UL Lafayette @UL Lafayette 67.23%
New Mexico@UNLV @UNLV 52.57%
Old Dominion@Vanderbilt @Vanderbilt 68.58%
UAB@Florida Atlantic UAB 74.37%
Colorado State@San Jose State Colorado State 67.42%
Auburn@Mississippi @Mississippi 55.56%
Arkansas@Mississippi State @Mississippi State 75.09%
Texas@Texas Tech Texas 73.60%
Stanford@Oregon @Oregon 69.13%
Tennessee@South Carolina @South Carolina 67.42%
Southern Mississippi@Texas El Paso @Texas El Paso 67.42%
Illinois@Ohio State @Ohio State 96.62%
Oklahoma State@Kansas State @Kansas State 81.96%
Notre Dame@Navy Notre Dame 81.96%
Arizona@UCLA @UCLA 66.64%
San Diego State@Nevada @Nevada 58.93%
California@Oregon State @Oregon State 57.46%
Wyoming@Fresno State @Fresno State 77.58%
Utah State@Hawaii Utah State 57.67%
Utah@Arizona State @Arizona State 63.46%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on October 28, 2014 at 12:08 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 4

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 4
Sep 162014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Auburn@Kansas State Auburn 72.14%
Connecticut@South Florida @South Florida 55.13%
Bowling Green@Wisconsin @Wisconsin 95.63%
Southern Illinois@Purdue Southern Illinois 64.08%
Georgia Tech@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 69.48%
Troy@Georgia @Georgia 99.51%
Western Illinois@Northwestern @Northwestern 87.35%
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State @Michigan State 99.83%
Old Dominion@Rice @Rice 69.71%
Iowa@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 65.07%
Tulane@Duke @Duke 86.36%
Maryland@Syracuse @Syracuse 52.57%
Delaware State@Temple @Temple 95.62%
Maine@Boston College @Boston College 80.21%
Marshall@Akron Marshall 74.06%
Hawaii@Colorado @Colorado 67.42%
Utah@Michigan @Michigan 63.86%
Florida@Alabama @Alabama 83.17%
North Carolina@East Carolina @East Carolina 55.90%
Virginia@Brigham Young @Brigham Young 83.34%
Nicholls State@North Texas @North Texas 87.97%
Norfolk State@Buffalo @Buffalo 83.03%
Texas A&M@Southern Methodist Texas A&M 98.33%
Rutgers@Navy @Navy 65.07%
Army@Wake Forest Army 56.41%
Central Michigan@Kansas @Kansas 61.42%
Louisville@Florida International Louisville 95.92%
Florida Atlantic@Wyoming @Wyoming 60.18%
Indiana@Missouri @Missouri 80.81%
Texas State@Illinois @Illinois 82.02%
Massachusetts@Penn State @Penn State 95.63%
San Jose State@Minnesota @Minnesota 68.58%
Georgia State@Washington @Washington 98.80%
Bethune Cookman@Central Florida @Central Florida 88.80%
Presbyterian@North Carolina State @North Carolina State 98.19%
Appalachian State@Southern Mississippi @Southern Mississippi 59.43%
Ball State@Toledo @Toledo 75.09%
Utah State@Arkansas State @Arkansas State 53.85%
Northwestern State@Louisiana Tech @Louisiana Tech 74.43%
Murray State@Western Michigan @Western Michigan 52.21%
Idaho@Ohio @Ohio 80.81%
Middle Tennessee@Memphis @Memphis 77.09%
Mississippi State@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 74.06%
Miami (Ohio)@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 96.46%
Northern Illinois@Arkansas @Arkansas 82.51%
Oklahoma@West Virginia Oklahoma 68.80%
Georgia Southern@South Alabama @South Alabama 56.41%
South Carolina@Vanderbilt South Carolina 92.11%
New Mexico@New Mexico State New Mexico 62.65%
Miami@Nebraska @Nebraska 67.42%
UNLV@Houston @Houston 91.23%
Clemson@Florida State @Florida State 90.15%
Southern Utah@Fresno State @Fresno State 78.00%
California@Arizona @Arizona 75.09%
UL Lafayette@Boise State @Boise State 84.90%
Oregon@Washington State Oregon 93.84%
San Diego State@Oregon State @Oregon State 73.85%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on September 16, 2014 at 8:37 am

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 3

 2014, College football, NCAA football, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 3
Sep 082014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Louisiana Tech@North Texas @North Texas 61.21%
Houston@Brigham Young @Brigham Young 88.77%
Toledo@Cincinnati @Cincinnati 76.90%
Baylor@Buffalo Baylor 98.38%
East Carolina@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 75.76%
Ohio@Marshall @Marshall 90.79%
Massachusetts@Vanderbilt @Vanderbilt 86.00%
Pittsburgh@Florida International Pittsburgh 95.38%
Syracuse@Central Michigan Syracuse 67.42%
Boise State@Connecticut Boise State 92.17%
West Virginia@Maryland @Maryland 57.67%
Indiana@Bowling Green Indiana 67.42%
Central Florida@Missouri @Missouri 72.82%
Georgia Southern@Georgia Tech @Georgia Tech 90.15%
Kent State@Ohio State @Ohio State 98.05%
Louisville@Virginia Louisville 67.23%
Air Force@Georgia State Air Force 76.60%
Wyoming@Oregon @Oregon 99.77%
UC – Davis@Colorado State @Colorado State 79.50%
Indiana State@Ball State @Ball State 78.25%
Georgia@South Carolina Georgia 65.46%
Arkansas@Texas Tech @Texas Tech 55.56%
Arkansas State@Miami @Miami 85.52%
Iowa State@Iowa @Iowa 76.27%
Miami (Ohio)@Michigan @Michigan 97.38%
North Carolina State@South Florida North Carolina State 56.41%
Kansas@Duke @Duke 83.73%
Alabama A&M@UAB @UAB 96.28%
Illinois@Washington @Washington 79.60%
Mississippi State@South Alabama Mississippi State 82.80%
UL Lafayette@Mississippi @Mississippi 95.97%
Minnesota@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 82.24%
Army@Stanford @Stanford 96.28%
Western Michigan@Idaho @Idaho 55.34%
Southern Mississippi@Alabama @Alabama 99.90%
Eastern Michigan@Old Dominion @Old Dominion 85.76%
Abilene Christian@Troy @Troy 65.64%
Northern Illinois@UNLV Northern Illinois 73.00%
Tulsa@Florida Atlantic Tulsa 50.64%
UL Monroe@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 97.66%
Wake Forest@Utah State @Utah State 82.10%
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee @Middle Tennessee 53.00%
Texas-San Antonio@Oklahoma State @Oklahoma State 81.35%
Purdue@Notre Dame @Notre Dame 96.66%
Kentucky@Florida @Florida 87.28%
New Mexico State@Texas El Paso @Texas El Paso 76.42%
Navy@Texas State Navy 76.92%
Portland State@Washington State @Washington State 83.33%
Southeastern Louisiana@Tulane Southeastern Louisiana 66.79%
Southern California@Boston College Southern California 87.93%
Penn State@Rutgers Penn State 58.30%
UCLA@Texas UCLA 69.89%
Tennessee@Oklahoma @Oklahoma 90.70%
Rice@Texas A&M @Texas A&M 97.86%
Arizona State@Colorado Arizona State 84.52%
Nebraska@Fresno State Nebraska 74.40%
Nevada@Arizona @Arizona 83.60%
Northern Iowa@Hawaii Northern Iowa 71.95%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on September 8, 2014 at 4:07 pm

2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 1

 2014, College football, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 College Football win probabilities – Week 1
Aug 242014
 
Game Victor Win Probability
Abilene Christian@Georgia State @Georgia State 61.13%
Texas A&M@South Carolina @South Carolina 75.47%
Presbyterian@Northern Illinois @Northern Illinois 99.61%
Chattanooga@Central Michigan @Central Michigan 78.09%
Howard@Akron @Akron 91.69%
Wake Forest@UL Monroe @UL Monroe 50.95%
Eastern Illinois@Minnesota @Minnesota 95.61%
Idaho State@Utah @Utah 99.70%
Tulane@Tulsa @Tulsa 65.01%
Boise State@Mississippi @Mississippi 74.48%
Cal. Poly – SLO@New Mexico State Cal. Poly – SLO 60.20%
Temple@Vanderbilt @Vanderbilt 81.75%
Rutgers@Washington State @Washington State 69.76%
North Dakota@San Jose State @San Jose State 94.33%
Weber State@Arizona State @Arizona State 99.89%
Brigham Young@Connecticut Brigham Young 85.66%
Jacksonville State@Michigan State @Michigan State 98.19%
Villanova@Syracuse @Syracuse 82.55%
Bowling Green@Western Kentucky Bowling Green 68.76%
Texas-San Antonio@Houston @Houston 76.53%
Colorado State@Colorado @Colorado 57.33%
UNLV@Arizona @Arizona 93.62%
Penn State@Central Florida @Central Florida 53.46%
Delaware@Pittsburgh @Pittsburgh 93.97%
UCLA@Virginia UCLA 91.91%
Tennessee-Martin@Kentucky @Kentucky 89.53%
Western Michigan@Purdue @Purdue 75.32%
Ohio State@Navy Ohio State 86.24%
Troy@Alabama-Birmingham @Alabama-Birmingham 55.79%
North Dakota State@Iowa State @Iowa State 57.69%
Indiana State@Indiana @Indiana 93.51%
Northern Iowa@Iowa @Iowa 85.65%
Youngstown State@Illinois @Illinois 77.08%
Appalachian State@Michigan @Michigan 98.65%
Georgia Southern@North Carolina State @North Carolina State 91.33%
Wofford@Georgia Tech @Georgia Tech 50.05%
Nicholls State@Air Force @Air Force 90.66%
Colgate@Ball State @Ball State 95.04%
Boston College@Massachusetts Boston College 85.27%
Southern Utah@Nevada @Nevada 93.15%
Duquesne@Buffalo @Buffalo 96.16%
Rice@Notre Dame @Notre Dame 91.93%
Hampton@Old Dominion @Old Dominion 97.39%
South Dakota State@Missouri @Missouri 97.14%
James Madison@Maryland @Maryland 92.19%
California@Northwestern @Northwestern 76.33%
Florida Atlantic@Nebraska @Nebraska 92.21%
West Virginia@Alabama @Alabama 95.49%
Marshall@Miami (Ohio) Marshall 93.71%
UC – Davis@Stanford @Stanford 98.95%
Montana@Wyoming @Wyoming 67.38%
William & Mary@Virginia Tech @Virginia Tech 90.17%
Arkansas@Auburn @Auburn 89.91%
Portland State@Oregon State @Oregon State 97.76%
Clemson@Georgia @Georgia 69.36%
Ohio@Kent State @Kent State 56.90%
Morgan State@Eastern Michigan @Eastern Michigan 74.06%
Elon University@Duke @Duke 98.37%
Liberty@North Carolina @North Carolina 97.18%
Western Carolina@South Florida @South Florida 93.11%
Louisiana Tech@Oklahoma @Oklahoma 99.34%
New Hampshire@Toledo New Hampshire 56.42%
Central Arkansas@Texas Tech @Texas Tech 97.20%
Northern Arizona@San Diego State @San Diego State 90.11%
Austin Peay@Memphis @Memphis 98.00%
Savannah State@Middle Tennessee @Middle Tennessee 99.53%
Southern@UL Lafayette @UL Lafayette 99.30%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff@Texas State @Texas State 97.58%
Bethune Cookman@Florida International Bethune Cookman 61.46%
Samford@Texas Christian @Texas Christian 98.61%
Idaho@Florida @Florida 99.03%
Montana State@Arkansas State @Arkansas State 69.75%
Stephen F. Austin@Kansas State @Kansas State 99.06%
Southern Mississippi@Mississippi State @Mississippi State 97.33%
Fresno State@Southern California @Southern California 91.94%
North Carolina Central@East Carolina @East Carolina 99.55%
Texas El Paso@New Mexico @New Mexico 68.35%
Florida State@Oklahoma State Florida State 87.29%
North Texas@Texas @Texas 94.77%
Wisconsin@Louisiana State @Louisiana State 62.81%
Washington@Hawaii Washington 86.49%
South Dakota@Oregon @Oregon 99.92%

Unlike NFL football pools, which games your college football pool chooses can vary. Use this page to help with your college football pool. Copy or import the page into Excel, sort by the Win Probability column in descending order to identify the best ranks for your pool.

 Posted by on August 24, 2014 at 3:22 pm

2013-2014 NCAA Football Bowls – Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities

 College football, Confidence pool, NCAA football, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013-2014 NCAA Football Bowls – Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities
Dec 212013
 

For the college football fans out there:
 

Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
Fiesta Baylor 35 85.9%
Sugar Alabama 34 84.0%
Pinstripe Notre Dame 33 82.2%
Holiday Arizona St. 32 81.9%
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s East Carolina 31 81.6%
Alamo Oregon 30 81.3%
Chick-fil-A Texas A&M 29 78.2%
Gator Georgia 28 71.7%
GoDaddy Ball St. 27 71.5%
BCS Championship Florida St. 26 70.0%
Advocare V100 Arizona 25 68.4%
Outback LSU 24 68.1%
Sun UCLA 23 67.7%
Heart of Dallas North Texas 22 66.3%
Armed Forces Navy 21 65.2%
Rose Stanford 20 63.7%
New Mexico Washington St. 19 63.5%
Liberty Mississippi St. 18 62.5%
Little Caesars Bowling Green 17 61.5%
Las Vegas USC 16 61.4%
Texas Minnesota 15 61.0%
Buffalo Wild Wings Kansas St. 14 59.5%
Russell Athletic Louisville 13 58.4%
Music City Mississippi 12 57.9%
Fight Hunger Washington 11 57.6%
Belk North Carolina 10 57.6%
Hawaii Oregon St. 9 57.4%
BBVA Compass Vanderbilt 8 57.3%
Orange Ohio St. 7 56.4%
Military Marshall 6 56.2%
New Orleans Tulane 5 54.8%
Poinsettia Northern Illinois 4 54.2%
Cotton Missouri 3 53.0%
Idaho Potato San Diego St. 2 52.9%
Capital One Wisconsin 1 52.2%
Possible points: 630    
Expected: 444.8    
Likely range: 355 to 528    
       
       
 Posted by on December 21, 2013 at 8:10 am

Play in a College confidence pool? Drop your weight on the Colorado game to the minimum

 College Pick 'Em, NCAA football  Comments Off on Play in a College confidence pool? Drop your weight on the Colorado game to the minimum
Sep 132013
 

Due to the flooding in Boulder, the Fresno State at Colorado game, originally scheduled for tomorrow, has been postponed.

If you play in a college confidence pool and the rules allow you to change the ranks of games that have not started, drop your rank on this game to the lowest weight possible. Nobody will get a point for this game so there’s no use wasting your ranking budget.

fresno-state-at-colorado

 Posted by on September 13, 2013 at 7:33 pm

Anchoring Bias Evident in Popular Online Confidence Pools

 Confidence pool, NCAA football, Office pool strategy  Comments Off on Anchoring Bias Evident in Popular Online Confidence Pools
Dec 212009
 

Fan Pick Distributions:  Consistent Across Sites
Several websites sponsor college bowl confidence pool contests on all 34 bowl games.  The two most popular probably are those on ESPN and Yahoo.  It is interesting to compare how the contestants in the two sites’ confidence pool contests allocated their picks.

The first observation is how similar the percentages of contestant picks are. They’re so close they resemble polling results taken a few days apart. The correlation coefficient of the two distributions is 0.99.  Here’s a plot of the two series:

Fan Confidence Distributions:  Clear Example of Anchoring Bias
The second thing that’s obvious is how different the contestants’ average confidence weights are for each pick.  In this 34 bowl game contest, contestants are supposed to predict the game winners and rank their predicted winners according to how confident they are each team will win, assigning numbers from 34 (highest confidence) down to 1 (lowest confidence).  Given the similarity of the percentages of fans that picked each team, it is reasonable to expect their average confidence on each team might be similar as well.  But as you skim down the columns labeled “Conf.,” you’ll notice on Yahoo the later games get more confidence weight, while on ESPN the later games get less weight.  That’s no mere illusion:  the correlation coefficient of Confidence weights between Yahoo and ESPN is -.62.  What’s going on here?  How could contestants with nearly identical views on who will win have such different degrees of confidence about their expectations?

A simple answer lies in the two columns labeled “Default.”  While some online confidence pools require the user to enter or pull-down a confidence weight, both Yahoo’s and ESPN’s entry pages begin with pre-assigned confidence weights.  It’s up to the user to deviate from these default assigments.  In Yahoo’s contest, the assignments are in ascending order, while in ESPN’s they’re in descending order.  Clearly the contestants on both sites were anchored by the starting confidence weights.  Multiple regression analysis reveals that in both contests over 50% of the variation in Average Confidence Weight is explained by the Default weighting.
 Posted by on December 21, 2009 at 1:21 pm