/* ]]> */
Oct 172017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
3  KC 0.587  KC @ OAK
2 @ BUF 0.530  TB @ BUF
6  CAR 0.601  CAR @ CHI
14  TEN 0.693  TEN @ CLE
9  NO 0.626  NO @ GB
4  JAC 0.589  JAC @ IND
7 @ LAR 0.603  ARI @ LAR
5 @ MIA 0.600  NYJ @ MIA
11 @ MIN 0.650  BAL @ MIN
10  DAL 0.645  DAL @ SF
15  SEA 0.704  SEA @ NYG
13 @ PIT 0.667  CIN @ PIT
1  DEN 0.505  DEN @ LAC
8 @ NE 0.611  ATL @ NE
12 @ PHI 0.660  WAS @ PHI
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
451 77.5 120 43 to 108

* based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 17, 2017 at 6:35 am
Oct 162017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
6 @ CAR 0.591 0
9 @ BAL 0.695 0
7  GB 0.600 0
12 @ ATL 0.778 0
5 @ NO 0.579 5
14 @ HOU 0.803 14
11  NE 0.763 11
10 @ WAS 0.760 10
2 @ ARI 0.502 2
4 @ JAC 0.576 0
8 @ KC 0.606 0
3 @ OAK 0.529 0
13 @ DEN 0.779 0
1 @ TEN 0.500 1
YTD Expected Possible Actual
451 73.84 105 43
 Posted by on October 16, 2017 at 8:57 pm

2017 Confidence Picks Week 6

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 6
Oct 112017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
6 @ CAR 0.591  PHI @ CAR
9 @ BAL 0.695  CHI @ BAL
7  GB 0.600  GB @ MIN
12 @ ATL 0.778  MIA @ ATL
5 @ NO 0.579  DET @ NO
14 @ HOU 0.803  CLE @ HOU
11  NE 0.763  NE @ NYJ
10 @ WAS 0.760  SF @ WAS
2 @ ARI 0.502  TB @ ARI
4 @ JAC 0.576  LAR @ JAC
8 @ KC 0.606  PIT @ KC
3 @ OAK 0.529  LAC @ OAK
13 @ DEN 0.779  NYG @ DEN
1 @ TEN 0.500 IND @ TEN
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
408 64.8 105 45 to 98

* based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 11, 2017 at 9:47 am

2017 NFL Week 5: 50 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 5: 50 points
Oct 112017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
12  NE 0.630 12
4 @ CLE 0.562 0
14 @ PIT 0.748 0
10 @ CIN 0.598 10
3  TEN 0.550 0
5 @ IND 0.565 5
13 @ PHI 0.687 13
11 @ NYG 0.614 0
7 @ DET 0.590 0
1 @ LAR 0.517 0
9 @ OAK 0.594 0
6 @ DAL 0.568 0
2  KC 0.545 2
8  MIN 0.590 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
408 65.63 105 50
 Posted by on October 11, 2017 at 9:32 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 5 (revised)

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 5 (revised)
Oct 032017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
12  NE 0.630  NE @ TB
4 @ CLE 0.562  NYJ @ CLE
14 @ PIT 0.748  JAC @ PIT
10 @ CIN 0.598  BUF @ CIN
3  TEN 0.550  TEN @ MIA
5 @ IND 0.565  SF @ IND
13 @ PHI 0.687  ARI @ PHI
11 @ NYG 0.614  LAC @ NYG
7 @ DET 0.590  CAR @ DET
1 @ LAR 0.517  SEA @ LAR
9 @ OAK 0.594  BAL @ OAK
6 @ DAL 0.568  GB @ DAL
2  KC 0.545  KC @ HOU
8  MIN 0.590  MIN @ CHI
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
358 65.6 105 35 to 93

*Based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on October 3, 2017 at 7:01 am

2017 NFL Week 4: 77 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 4: 77 points
Oct 032017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
12 @ GB 0.71 12
4  NO 0.55 4
13 @ DAL 0.73 0
9  JAC 0.62 0
1 @ MIN 0.5 0
14 @ ATL 0.73 0
7  CIN 0.58 7
15 @ NE 0.74 0
6  PIT 0.58 6
5  TEN 0.57 0
2 @ LAC 0.53 0
8 @ TB 0.61 8
10 @ ARI 0.68 10
3 @ DEN 0.53 3
16 @ SEA 0.82 16
11 @ KC 0.7 11
YTD Expected Possible Actual
358 93.1 136 77
 Posted by on October 3, 2017 at 6:15 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 4

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 4
Sep 262017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
12 @ GB 70.9%  CHI @ GB
4  NO 55.2%  NO @ MIA
13 @ DAL 72.7%  LAR @ DAL
9  JAC 62.4%  JAC @ NYJ
1 @ MIN 50.0%  DET @ MIN
14 @ ATL 73.3%  BUF @ ATL
7  CIN 58.2%  CIN @ CLE
15 @ NE 74.1%  CAR @ NE
6  PIT 57.7%  PIT @ BAL
5  TEN 56.6%  TEN @ HOU
2 @ LAC 52.7%  PHI @ LAC
8 @ TB 60.9%  NYG @ TB
10 @ ARI 68.3%  SF @ ARI
3 @ DEN 52.7%  OAK @ DEN
16 @ SEA 81.7%  IND @ SEA
11 @ KC 70.0%  WAS @ KC
YTD Expected Possible 95% conf. interval*
281 93.1 136 57 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on September 26, 2017 at 10:18 am

2017 NFL Week 3: 73 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 3: 73 points
Sep 262017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
4 L.A. Rams 0.57 4
10 Baltimore 0.61 0
16 @New England 0.82 16
11 Miami 0.62 0
1 @Minnesota 0.5 1
12 @Philadelphia 0.63 12
5 Denver 0.57 0
13 @Carolina 0.67 0
14 Pittsburgh 0.71 0
2 Cleveland 0.53 0
6 Atlanta 0.58 6
3 @Tennessee 0.54 3
7 Kansas City 0.58 7
15 @Green Bay 0.74 15
8 Oakland 0.58 0
9 Dallas 0.59 9
YTD Expected Possible Actual
281 89.2 136 73
 Posted by on September 26, 2017 at 10:14 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 3

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 3
Sep 192017
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
4 L.A. Rams 56.8% L.A. Rams@San Francisco
10 Baltimore 60.7% Baltimore@Jacksonville
16 @New England 82.3% Houston@New England
11 Miami 62.4% Miami@N.Y. Jets
1 @Minnesota 50.3% Tampa Bay@Minnesota
12 @Philadelphia 63.1% N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia
5 Denver 57.0% Denver@Buffalo
13 @Carolina 66.8% New Orleans@Carolina
14 Pittsburgh 70.6% Pittsburgh@Chicago
2 Cleveland 52.5% Cleveland@Indianapolis
6 Atlanta 57.9% Atlanta@Detroit
3 @Tennessee 53.5% Seattle@Tennessee
7 Kansas City 58.4% Kansas City@L.A. Chargers
15 @Green Bay 73.8% Cincinnati@Green Bay
8 Oakland 58.4% Oakland@Washington
9 Dallas 59.4% Dallas@Arizona
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
208 89.2 136 53 to 121

*Based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on September 19, 2017 at 9:09 am

2017 NFL Week 2: 114 points

 NFL  Comments Off on 2017 NFL Week 2: 114 points
Sep 192017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Correct
8 @Cincinnati 62.9% 0
10 New England 64.4% 10
9 @Pittsburgh 63.6% 9
7 @Kansas City 62.8% 7
11 @Tampa Bay 67.7% 11
14 @Baltimore 73.0% 14
12 @Carolina 67.9% 12
3 Tennessee 54.5% 3
13 Arizona 70.9% 13
15 @Oakland 82.2% 15
5 @L.A. Chargers 57.0% 0
16 @Seattle 84.0% 16
2 Dallas 54.1% 0
1 @L.A. Rams 53.5% 0
4 @Atlanta 56.1% 4
6 @N.Y. Giants 59.6% 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
208 94.3 136 114
 Posted by on September 19, 2017 at 8:55 am