/* ]]> */
Dec 122017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
7  DEN 0.583  DEN @ IND
11 @ DET 0.679  CHI @ DET
2 @ KC 0.508  LAC @ KC
12  BAL 0.701  BAL @ CLE
5 @ CAR 0.549  GB @ CAR
14 @ MIN 0.780  CIN @ MIN
16 @ NO 0.881  NYJ @ NO
15 @ JAC 0.793  HOU @ JAC
13  PHI 0.748  PHI @ NYG
9 @ WAS 0.613  ARI @ WAS
1  MIA 0.500  MIA @ BUF
4 @ SEA 0.536  LAR @ SEA
3 @ SF 0.520  TEN @ SF
6  NE 0.573  NE @ PIT
8  DAL 0.589  DAL @ OAK
10  ATL 0.637  ATL @ TB
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,176 94.6 136 60 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 12, 2017 at 9:14 am
Dec 122017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
8  NO 0.594 0
1 @ TB 0.500 1
10 @ KC 0.618 10
13  GB 0.683 13
5  MIN 0.528 0
14 @ CIN 0.696 0
7 @ HOU 0.586 0
2  IND 0.500 0
11  DAL 0.659 11
3 @ DEN 0.507 3
6  TEN 0.579 0
12 @ LAC 0.676 12
9 @ JAC 0.599 9
4 @ LAR 0.521 0
15 @ PIT 0.696 15
16  NE 0.798 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,176 102.3 136 74

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 12, 2017 at 9:13 am

Revised! 2017 Confidence Picks Week 14

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Dec 052017
 

 

Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
8  NO 0.594  NO @ ATL
1 @ TB 0.500  DET @ TB
10 @ KC 0.618  OAK @ KC
13  GB 0.683  GB @ CLE
5  MIN 0.528  MIN @ CAR
14 @ CIN 0.696  CHI @ CIN
7 @ HOU 0.586  SF @ HOU
2  IND 0.500  IND @ BUF
11  DAL 0.659  DAL @ NYG
3 @ DEN 0.507  NYJ @ DEN
6  TEN 0.579  TEN @ ARI
12 @ LAC 0.676  WAS @ LAC
9 @ JAC 0.599  SEA @ JAC
4 @ LAR 0.521  PHI @ LAR
15 @ PIT 0.696  BAL @ PIT
16  NE 0.798  NE @ MIA
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,102 88.8 136 52 to 121

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 5, 2017 at 10:51 am

2017 NFL Week 13: 106 points

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Dec 052017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
3 @ DAL 0.558 3
7  KC 0.610 0
2 @ MIA 0.510 2
14  NE 0.745 14
12 @ TEN 0.701 12
5 @ ATL 0.588 0
1  TB 0.500 0
8 @ CHI 0.643 0
15 @ JAC 0.748 15
4 @ BAL 0.588 4
16 @ LAC 0.840 16
6 @ NO 0.608 6
13 @ OAK 0.711 13
11  LAR 0.684 11
9  PHI 0.667 0
10  PIT 0.679 10
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,102 102.3 136 106

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 5, 2017 at 7:44 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 13

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Nov 282017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
3 @ DAL 0.558  WAS @ DAL
7  KC 0.610  KC @ NYJ
2 @ MIA 0.510  DEN @ MIA
14  NE 0.745  NE @ BUF
12 @ TEN 0.701  HOU @ TEN
5 @ ATL 0.588  MIN @ ATL
1  TB 0.500  TB @ GB
8 @ CHI 0.643  SF @ CHI
15 @ JAC 0.748  IND @ JAC
4 @ BAL 0.588  DET @ BAL
16 @ LAC 0.840  CLE @ LAC
6 @ NO 0.608  CAR @ NO
13 @ OAK 0.711  NYG @ OAK
11  LAR 0.684  LAR @ ARI
9  PHI 0.667  PHI @ SEA
10  PIT 0.679  PIT @ CIN
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
996 94.6 136 59 to 125

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 28, 2017 at 10:23 am

2017 NFL Week 12: 116 points

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Nov 272017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
1  MIN 0.530 1
2 @ DAL 0.559 0
11 @ WAS 0.737 11
4  TEN 0.620 4
6  CAR 0.633 6
12 @ ATL 0.750 12
14 @ PHI 0.834 14
13 @ KC 0.768 0
16 @ NE 0.884 16
10 @ CIN 0.729 10
8  SEA 0.700 8
7 @ OAK 0.645 7
5  JAC 0.625 0
3 @ LAR 0.565 3
15 @ PIT 0.854 15
9 @ BAL 0.711 9
YTD Expected Possible Actual
996 102.3 136 116
 Posted by on November 27, 2017 at 9:50 pm

2017 Confidence Picks Week 12

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Nov 212017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
1  MIN 0.530  MIN @ DET
2 @ DAL 0.559  LAC @ DAL
11 @ WAS 0.737  NYG @ WAS
4  TEN 0.620  TEN @ IND
6  CAR 0.633  CAR @ NYJ
12 @ ATL 0.750  TB @ ATL
14 @ PHI 0.834  CHI @ PHI
13 @ KC 0.768  BUF @ KC
16 @ NE 0.884  MIA @ NE
10 @ CIN 0.729  CLE @ CIN
8  SEA 0.700  SEA @ SF
7 @ OAK 0.645  DEN @ OAK
5  JAC 0.625  JAC @ ARI
3 @ LAR 0.565  NO @ LAR
15 @ PIT 0.854  GB @ PIT
9 @ BAL 0.711  HOU @ BAL
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
880 102.3 136 69 to 129

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 21, 2017 at 9:47 pm

2017 NFL Week 11: 74 points

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Nov 212017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
11 @ PIT 0.700 11
2 @ MIN 0.561 2
3 BAL 0.569 3
6 DET 0.588 6
13 @ NO 0.720 13
12 JAC 0.706 12
1 ARI 0.545 0
5 @ MIA 0.588 0
14 KC 0.819 0
9 @ LAC 0.621 9
10 NE 0.671 10
4 @ DEN 0.584 0
8 PHI 0.591 8
7 @ SEA 0.589 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
880 70.3 105 74
 Posted by on November 21, 2017 at 7:32 am

2017 Confidence Picks Week 11

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Nov 142017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
11 @ PIT 0.700  TEN @ PIT
2 @ MIN 0.561  LAR @ MIN
3  BAL 0.569  BAL @ GB
6  DET 0.588  DET @ CHI
13 @ NO 0.720  WAS @ NO
12  JAC 0.706  JAC @ CLE
1  ARI 0.545  ARI @ HOU
5 @ MIA 0.588  TB @ MIA
14  KC 0.819  KC @ NYG
9 @ LAC 0.621  BUF @ LAC
10  NE 0.671  NE @ OAK
4 @ DEN 0.584  CIN @ DEN
8  PHI 0.591  PHI @ DAL
7 @ SEA 0.589  ATL @ SEA
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
806 70.3 105 40 to 96

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 14, 2017 at 6:28 am

2017 NFL Week 10: 97 points

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Nov 132017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
9  SEA 0.680 9
12  PIT 0.776 12
4  MIN 0.573 4
13 @ DET 0.782 13
2  NYJ 0.522 0
6 @ CHI 0.608 0
7 @ JAC 0.639 7
3  NO 0.571 3
8 @ TEN 0.664 8
14 @ LAR 0.800 14
1 @ SF 0.520 1
5 @ ATL 0.589 5
10  NE 0.706 10
11 @ CAR 0.767 11
YTD Expected Possible Actual
806 74.2 105 97
 Posted by on November 13, 2017 at 8:49 pm