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2017 Confidence Picks: Super Bowl LII

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Jan 292018
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
16 @ NE 0.66  PHI @ NE
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,589 10.6 16 0 to 16

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 29, 2018 at 4:23 pm

2017 NFL Conference Championships: 24 points

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Jan 242018
 

 

Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
16 @ NE 0.752 16
8 @ MIN 0.536 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,589 16.3 24 24
 Posted by on January 24, 2018 at 9:57 am

2017 Confidence Picks Conference Championships

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Jan 162018
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
16 @ NE 0.752  JAC @ NE
8 @ PHI 0.536  MIN @ PHI
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1565 16.3 24 0 to 24

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 16, 2018 at 12:28 pm

2017 NFL Divisional Round: 24 points

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Jan 162018
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
4  ATL 0.586 0
16 @ NE 0.844 16
12 @ PIT 0.714 0
8 @ MIN 0.608 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,565 29.3 40 24
 Posted by on January 16, 2018 at 12:25 pm

2017 Confidence Picks Divisional Round

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Jan 082018
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
4  ATL 0.586  ATL @ PHI
16 @ NE 0.844  TEN @ NE
12 @ PIT 0.714  JAC @ PIT
8 @ MIN 0.608  NO @ MIN
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,541 29.3 40 8 to 40
 Posted by on January 8, 2018 at 1:53 pm

2017 NFL Wildcard Round: 24 points

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Jan 082018
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
12 @ KC 0.729 0
4 @ LAR 0.659 0
16 @ JAC 0.737 16
8 @ NO 0.678 8
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,541 98.6 136 24
 Posted by on January 8, 2018 at 1:52 pm

2017 Confidence Picks Wildcard Round

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Jan 022018
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
12 @ KC 0.729  TEN @ KC
4 @ LAR 0.659  ATL @ LAR
16 @ JAC 0.737  BUF @ JAC
8 @ NO 0.678  CAR @ NO
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1517 28.6 40 8 to 40

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 2, 2018 at 10:44 am

2017 NFL Week 17: 87 points

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Jan 012018
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
14 @ MIN 0.798 14
16 @ NE 0.845 16
4 WAS 0.578 0
3 DAL 0.563 3
15 @ PIT 0.805 15
11 @ DET 0.712 11
2 @ IND 0.561 2
1 BUF 0.560 1
6 @ ATL 0.620 6
10 NO 0.701 0
7 @ TEN 0.639 7
13 @ BAL 0.762 0
8 @ SEA 0.678 0
5 @ DEN 0.580 0
12 @ LAC 0.729 12
9 @ LAR 0.680 0
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,517 98.6 136 87

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 1, 2018 at 8:02 pm

2017 Confidence Picks Week 17

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Dec 262017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Game
14 @ MIN 0.798  CHI @ MIN
16 @ NE 0.845  NYJ @ NE
4  WAS 0.578  WAS @ NYG
3  DAL 0.563  DAL @ PHI
15 @ PIT 0.805  CLE @ PIT
11 @ DET 0.712  GB @ DET
2 @ IND 0.561  HOU @ IND
1  BUF 0.560  BUF @ MIA
6 @ ATL 0.620  CAR @ ATL
10  NO 0.701  NO @ TB
7 @ TEN 0.639  JAC @ TEN
13 @ BAL 0.762  CIN @ BAL
8 @ SEA 0.678  ARI @ SEA
5 @ DEN 0.580  KC @ DEN
12 @ LAC 0.729  OAK @ LAC
9 @ LAR 0.680  SF @ LAR
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,430 98.6 136 64 to 127

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 26, 2017 at 11:15 am

2017 NFL Week 16: 124 points

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Dec 252017
 
Confidence Victor WinProbability Correct
16 @ BAL 0.833 16
1  MIN 0.500 1
4  DET 0.618 0
14 @ KC 0.776 14
15 @ NE 0.797 15
9 @ CHI 0.688 9
12 @ CAR 0.767 12
7 @ NO 0.670 7
10  LAC 0.700 10
8  LAR 0.688 8
3 @ WAS 0.612 3
6  JAC 0.640 0
2 @ DAL 0.599 0
5 @ ARI 0.636 5
13  PIT 0.773 13
11 @ PHI 0.752 11
YTD Expected Possible Actual
1,430 100.1 136 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 25, 2017 at 10:05 pm