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NFL Super Bowl 50 pick

 2015, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on NFL Super Bowl 50 pick
Jan 252016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
16 Carolina 63.5% Carolina@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
10.16 16 0 to 16
YTD  
1,473  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 25, 2016 at 4:42 pm

2015 NFL Playoff Conference Round: 8 points

 2015, NFL, playoffs, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Playoff Conference Round: 8 points
Jan 252016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
16 New England 59.6% New England@Denver
8 @Carolina 58.9% Arizona@Carolina
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
8 14.24 24 0 to 24
YTD  
1,473  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 25, 2016 at 4:27 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference round

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference round
Jan 182016
 

(1/25/2016: Corrected “Possible” points.)

Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
16 New England 59.6% New England@Denver
8 @Carolina 58.9% Arizona@Carolina
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
14.24 24 0 to 24
YTD  
1,465  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 18, 2016 at 2:09 pm

2015 NFL Playoff Divisional Round: 40 points

 2015, NFL, playoffs, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Playoff Divisional Round: 40 points
Jan 182016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @New England 65.1% Kansas City@New England
16 @Arizona 70.0% Green Bay@Arizona
4 @Carolina 58.5% Seattle@Carolina
8 @Denver 62.8% Pittsburgh@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 40 26.38 40 4 to 40
YTD  
1,465  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 18, 2016 at 1:56 pm

2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional round

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Divisional round
Jan 122016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 @New England 65.1% Kansas City@New England
16 @Arizona 70.0% Green Bay@Arizona
4 @Carolina 58.5% Seattle@Carolina
8 @Denver 62.8% Pittsburgh@Denver
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
26.38 40 4 to 40
YTD  
1,425  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 12, 2016 at 9:26 am

2015 NFL Playoff Wildcard Round: 36 points

 2015, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Results  Comments Off on 2015 NFL Playoff Wildcard Round: 36 points
Jan 122016
 
Conf. Victor Win Probability Game
12 Kansas City 58.1% Kansas City@Houston
8 Pittsburgh 55.4% Pittsburgh@Cincinatti
16 Seattle 59.7% Seattle@Minnesota
4 @Washington 51.2% Green Bay@Washington
Actual Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
 36 23.02 40 0 to 40
YTD  
1,425  

*Based on 100,000 simulations

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 12, 2016 at 6:53 am

2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference Championship round

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2014 NFL Confidence Pool Picks – Conference Championship round
Jan 132015
 
Game Victor Win Probability Confidence
Indianapolis@New England @New England 69.7% 8
Green Bay@Seattle @Seattle 71.0% 16
Possible Points Expected Actual YTD
24 16.93   1,568
95% confidence interval* 0 to 24  

*Calculated analytically

If you notice any errors, as always, email contact_at_winthatpool_dot_com.

 Posted by on January 13, 2015 at 1:00 pm

2013-14 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Conference Championships

 2014, Confidence pool, NFL, playoffs, Win probability  Comments Off on 2013-14 NFL Confidence Pool Picks and Win Probabilities: Conference Championships
Jan 142014
 

New post on strategy for picking games this weekend

Game Victor Confidence Win Probability
New England@Denver @Denver 16 63.2%
San Francisco@Seattle @Seattle 8 60.1%
Possible points: 24    
Expected: 14.9    
Likely range: 0 to 24    
       
       
 Posted by on January 14, 2014 at 11:29 am