/* ]]> */
Nov 182009
 

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
16 Dallas 80.6% Washington
15 New Orleans 80.6% Tampa Bay
14 Minnesota 80.6% Seattle
13 New England 79.6% New York J
12 Pittsburgh 78.4% Kansas City
11 Cincinnati 77.3% Oakland
10 Arizona 76.1% St Louis
9 Jacksonville 74.9% Buffalo
8 New York G 69.6% Atlanta
7 Green Bay 69.6% San Francisco
6 Houston 64.0% Tennessee
5 Detroit 61.0% Cleveland
4 Carolina 59.5% Miami
3 Philadelphia 59.5% Chicago
2 San Diego 58.0% Denver
1 Baltimore 51.8% Indianapolis

Expected Points 102
Likely range 76 to 128
Probability of zero upsets 0.29%

Upsets Total
0 0%
1 2%
2 7%
3 15%
4 21%
5 21%
6 17%
7 10%
8 5%
9 2%
10 0%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%
14 0%
15 0%
16 0%

Expected 4.8
Likely range 2 to 8

 Posted by on November 18, 2009 at 7:54 pm
Nov 162009
 

Last week the predictions were for 44 points and 3 upsets and the results were 42 points and 3 upsets.

This week looks to shape up quite similarly

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
10 Ohio St 82.4% Michigan
9 BYU 78.4% Air Force
8 Georgia 73.6% Kentucky
7 Stanford 72.3% California
6 Oklahoma 69.1% Texas Tech
5 Notre Dame 68.3% Connecticut
4 Oregon 66.3% Arizona
3 Mississippi 61.0% LSU
2 Boston College 61.0% North Carolina
1 Penn State 59.0% Michigan St

Expected Points 40
Likely range 26 to 54
Probability of zero upsets 2.36%

Predicted Upset Distribution
#Upsets Probability
0 2%
1 11%
2 22%
3 27%
4 21%
5 11%
6 4%
7 1%
8 0%
9 0%
10 0%

 Posted by on November 16, 2009 at 8:54 pm

What Do Football Pools Have in Common with MS Excel?

 Office pool, Office pool strategy, upset distribution  Comments Off on What Do Football Pools Have in Common with MS Excel?
Nov 112009
 

Odd question, sure. Odder answer: 2^16. That’s 65,536. If you scroll to the bottom of a worksheet in Excel (prior to Excel 2007), the bottom row is row 65,336. That number is also the number of possible winner/loser outcomes in a 16 game NFL weekend. That’s germane to calculating upset distributions and participant pick distributions.

 Posted by on November 11, 2009 at 9:14 am
Nov 102009
 

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
15 Minnesota 84.6% Detroit
14 New Orleans 81.0% St Louis
13 Baltimore 77.0% Cleveland
12 Miami 73.9% Tampa Bay
11 Arizona 71.1% Seattle
10 Pittsburgh 68.6% Cincinnati
9 New York J 67.7% Jacksonville
8 Tennessee 67.6% Buffalo
7 Denver 60.2% Washington
6 San Francisco 58.2% Chicago
5 Dallas 57.9% Green Bay
4 Indianapolis 57.7% New England
3 San Diego 56.6% Philadelphia
2 Oakland 56.5% Kansas City
1 Atlanta 54.9% Carolina

Expected Points 85
Likely range 61 to 110
Probability of zero upsets 0.2%

Expect between 2 and 8 upsets this week.

Upsets Prob%
0 0%
1 1%
2 5%
3 12%
4 19%
5 22%
6 19%
7 12%
8 6%
9 2%
10 1%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%
14 0%
15 0%

 Posted by on November 10, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Nov 092009
 

If ever there’s a week with no upsets this season, this could be the week.

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
10 Ohio St 90.9% Iowa
9 TCU 90.2% Utah
8 Florida 87.8% South Carolina
7 USC 80.6% Stanford
6 Pittsburgh 71.0% Notre Dame
5 Houston 66.3% Central Florida
4 Georgia 64.0% Auburn
3 Mississippi 61.0% Tennessee
2 Oklahoma St 61.0% Texas Tech
1 Miami Florida 60.5% North Carolina

Expected Points 44
Likely range 32 to 55
Probability of zero upsets 3.94%

Predicted Upset Distribution
Upsets Total
0 4%
1 16%
2 27%
3 27%
4 17%
5 7%
6 2%
7 0%
8 0%
9 0%
10 0%

Expect 2.7 upsets, or a range of 0 to 5.6.

 Posted by on November 9, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Nov 042009
 

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
13 New Orleans 79.0% Carolina
12 Atlanta 75.5% Washington
11 New England 75.4% Miami
10 Seattle 75.2% Detroit
9 Green Bay 75.0% Tampa Bay
8 Indianapolis 72.0% Houston
7 Jacksonville 67.3% Kansas City
6 New York G 61.7% San Diego
5 San Francisco 61.1% Tennessee
4 Pittsburgh 58.5% Denver
3 Baltimore 58.2% Cincinnati
2 Chicago 58.1% Arizona
1 Philadelphia 57.9% Dallas

Expected Points 65
Likely range 44 to 85
Prob. no upsets 0.5%

The upset distribution appears nearly identical to last week’s, when there were 5. The expectation is a bit over 4, the likely range is 2 to 7.

Upsets Prob.
0 1%
1 3%
2 11%
3 19%
4 23%
5 21%
6 13%
7 6%
8 2%
9 1%
10 0%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%

 Posted by on November 4, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Nov 032009
 

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
10 USC 78.0% Arizona St
9 Clemson 74.9% Florida St
8 Alabama 72.3% LSU
7 California 72.3% Oregon St
6 Arkansas 71.0% South Carolina
5 Oregon 69.1% Stanford
4 Michigan 68.3% Purdue
3 Oklahoma 66.3% Nebraska
2 Penn State 62.5% Ohio St
1 Kansas 57.5% Kansas St

Expected Points 40
Likely range 25 to 54
Probability of zero upsets 2.4%

Expect 1 to 5 upsets this week.

Upsets Total
0 2%
1 11%
2 23%
3 27%
4 21%
5 11%
6 4%
7 1%
8 0%
9 0%
10 0%

 Posted by on November 3, 2009 at 7:27 pm
Oct 292009
 

Confidence Favorite WinProb Underdog
13 San Diego 87.2% Oakland
12 Chicago 82.4% Cleveland
11 Indianapolis 80.2% San Francisco
10 Arizona 75.7% Carolina
9 New Orleans 73.5% Atlanta
8 Dallas 73.5% Seattle
7 Detroit 61.1% St Louis
6 New York J 59.8% Miami
5 Houston 58.9% Buffalo
4 Baltimore 58.3% Denver
3 Tennessee 58.1% Jacksonville
2 Green Bay 57.9% Minnesota
1 New York G 52.4% Philadelphia

Expected Points 67
Likely range 47 to 86
Probability of zero upsets 0.5%

Upset Probability Distribution: Week 8
#Upsets Probability
0 0.5%
1 3.2%
2 10.1%
3 19%
4 23.8%
5 21%
6 13.4%
7 6.2%
8 2.1%
9 0.5%
10 0.1%
11 0%
12 0%
13 0%

Expected 4.3
Likely range: 2 to 7

 Posted by on October 29, 2009 at 6:45 pm