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2017 Confidence Picks Week 1

 2017, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2017 Confidence Picks Week 1
Jul 032017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
4 @Detroit 56.8% Arizona@Detroit
14 Atlanta 69.2% Atlanta@Chicago
3 @Cincinnati 56.0% Baltimore@Cincinnati
11 Carolina 64.3% Carolina@San Francisco
7 Indianapolis 59.7% Indianapolis@L.A. Rams
10 @Houston 61.4% Jacksonville@Houston
15 @New England 70.9% Kansas City@New England
9 @Denver 60.9% L.A. Chargers@Denver
12 @Dallas 65.3% N.Y. Giants@Dallas
13 @Buffalo 67.9% N.Y. Jets@Buffalo
8 @Minnesota 60.1% New Orleans@Minnesota
1 Oakland 52.0% Oakland@Tennessee
5 @Washington 57.0% Philadelphia@Washington
16 Pittsburgh 74.7% Pittsburgh@Cleveland
6 @Green Bay 58.9% Seattle@Green Bay
2 @Miami 54.7% Tampa Bay@Miami
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
0 88.6 136 52 to 122

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on July 3, 2017 at 2:55 pm

2016 Confidence Picks: Divisional Round

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks: Divisional Round
Jan 092017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
12 @Atlanta 62.3% Seattle@Atlanta
16 @New England 88.1% Houston@New England
4 @Kansas City 52.7% Pittsburgh@Kansas City
8 @Dallas 61.8% Green Bay@Dallas
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,478 28.6 40 4 to 40

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 9, 2017 at 9:36 am

2016 Confidence Picks Wildcard Round

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Wildcard Round
Jan 022017
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
4 @Houston 58.9% Oakland@Houston
12 @Seattle 71.7% Detroit@Seattle
16 @Pittsburgh 76.3% Miami@Pittsburgh
8 @Green Bay 62.3% N.Y. Giants@Green Bay
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,438 28.1 40 4 to 40

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on January 2, 2017 at 9:40 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 17

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 17
Dec 272016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
3 @Cincinnati 57.5% Baltimore@Cincinnati
5 @Tennessee 58.9% Houston@Tennessee
8 @Indianapolis 65.3% Jacksonville@Indianapolis
15 New England 73.6% New England@Miami
10 @Minnesota 66.4% Chicago@Minnesota
7 Buffalo 64.5% Buffalo@N.Y. Jets
2 Dallas 50.4% Dallas@Philadelphia
14 @Pittsburgh 72.9% Cleveland@Pittsburgh
9 @Tampa Bay 65.8% Carolina@Tampa Bay
12 @Atlanta 68.9% New Orleans@Atlanta
4 @Denver 58.2% Oakland@Denver
11 Arizona 68.6% Arizona@Los Angeles
6 Kansas City 62.9% Kansas City@San Diego
16 Seattle 75.9% Seattle@San Francisco
13 @Washington 70.2% N.Y. Giants@Washington
1 @Detroit 50.3% Green Bay@Detroit
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,325 92.9 136 56 to 124

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 27, 2016 at 7:21 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 16

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 16
Dec 202016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
3 N.Y. Giants 57.9% N.Y. Giants@Philadelphia
8 @Buffalo 60.7% Miami@Buffalo
4 Washington 58.6% Washington@Chicago
12 San Diego 67.8% San Diego@Cleveland
14 @Green Bay 69.1% Minnesota@Green Bay
16 @New England 88.4% N.Y. Jets@New England
1 Atlanta 51.4% Atlanta@Carolina
11 Tennessee 62.2% Tennessee@Jacksonville
7 @Oakland 60.4% Indianapolis@Oakland
6 @Los Angeles 59.9% San Francisco@Los Angeles
5 @New Orleans 59.4% Tampa Bay@New Orleans
15 @Seattle 71.9% Arizona@Seattle
2 @Houston 56.0% Cincinnati@Houston
9 @Pittsburgh 60.8% Baltimore@Pittsburgh
10 @Kansas City 61.4% Denver@Kansas City
13 @Dallas 67.8% Detroit@Dallas
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,244 91.4 136 55 to 123

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 20, 2016 at 6:56 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 15

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 15
Dec 132016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
16 @Seattle 85.7% Los Angeles@Seattle
1 Miami 56.3% Miami@N.Y. Jets
14 @Buffalo 77.3% Cleveland@Buffalo
12 Green Bay 67.4% Green Bay@Chicago
4 Pittsburgh 58.9% Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
9 @Kansas City 66.2% Tennessee@Kansas City
6 @Minnesota 61.8% Indianapolis@Minnesota
8 @N.Y. Giants 63.7% Detroit@N.Y. Giants
10 @Baltimore 67.0% Philadelphia@Baltimore
11 @Houston 67.0% Jacksonville@Houston
15 @Atlanta 83.1% San Francisco@Atlanta
2 @Arizona 57.1% New Orleans@Arizona
5 New England 58.9% New England@Denver
3 Oakland 58.3% Oakland@San Diego
13 @Dallas 70.5% Tampa Bay@Dallas
7 @Washington 63.1% Carolina@Washington
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,132 96.2 136 61 to 126

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 13, 2016 at 9:28 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 14

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Dec 062016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
10 @Kansas City 57.9% Oakland@Kansas City
6 Pittsburgh 54.8% Pittsburgh@Buffalo
13 Cincinnati 63.2% Cincinnati@Cleveland
16 @Detroit 70.6% Chicago@Detroit
3 @Tennessee 51.9% Denver@Tennessee
12 @Indianapolis 62.1% Houston@Indianapolis
5 @Miami 54.2% Arizona@Miami
1 Washington 51.3% Washington@Philadelphia
4 @Carolina 53.1% San Diego@Carolina
11 Minnesota 58.8% Minnesota@Jacksonville
2 @San Francisco 51.7% N.Y. Jets@San Francisco
7 Seattle 57.1% Seattle@Green Bay
14 Atlanta 64.9% Atlanta@Los Angeles
8 @Tampa Bay 57.1% New Orleans@Tampa Bay
9 Dallas 57.8% Dallas@N.Y. Giants
15 @New England 68.8% Baltimore@New England
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
1,026 83.6 136 46 to 118

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on December 6, 2016 at 8:37 am

2016 Confidence Picks Week 13

 2016, Confidence pool, NFL, Win probability  Comments Off on 2016 Confidence Picks Week 13
Nov 292016
 
Conf. Victor WinProbability Game
6 Dallas 59.5% Dallas@Minnesota
9 @Atlanta 61.5% Kansas City@Atlanta
4 @Chicago 57.9% San Francisco@Chicago
2 Philadelphia 54.3% Philadelphia@Cincinnati
8 @Green Bay 60.0% Houston@Green Bay
15 @New England 83.9% Los Angeles@New England
12 @New Orleans 64.9% Detroit@New Orleans
11 Denver 63.9% Denver@Jacksonville
7 @Baltimore 59.6% Miami@Baltimore
5 @Oakland 58.9% Buffalo@Oakland
3 @Arizona 57.8% Washington@Arizona
13 @Pittsburgh 66.7% N.Y. Giants@Pittsburgh
10 @San Diego 61.7% Tampa Bay@San Diego
14 @Seattle 69.4% Carolina@Seattle
1 Indianapolis 51.40% Indianapolis@N.Y. Jets
       
YTD Expected Possible 95% confidence interval*
939 78.6 120 45 to 108

*based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

 Posted by on November 29, 2016 at 7:04 am